Quote:
Originally Posted by goober
I wouldn't read that much into a low turnout special election, where the Republican is well known as the brother of a 9/11 pilot, the numbers would have been lopsided if he ran on a November ballot when the faithful were out in force.
We still have some pockets of "swamp Yankee" Republicans here left over from the Civil War, but all that is fading fast, Maine is a good example of that with two Republican Senators, but those days are fading fast.
Just like there were Democratic holdovers for years after the South turned Republican, there are still a few Republicans left in the Northeast, but not many and species is getting rarer than the Ivory Billed Woodpecker.
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I agree with what you are saying. It's actually really interesting to look back and see how things have changed over the years, but really, it's the parties that have changed, not the people. The northeast has always been fairly liberal and more wealthy and that was who the Republican Party used to cater to. The south has always been socially conservative with a much larger rate of poor people and that is who the Democrats catered to. The roles of the parties have shifted over the last 40 years and the people have flipped their allegiances in response.
Snowe and Collins will likely be the last Republican senators from Maine for a long time to come, as will Landrieu, Pryor, and Lincoln likely be the last Democratic Senators from their states. Same deal with my Congressman. He is a Democrat and has represented this district for 24 years. This district has become increasingly Republican with the urban sprawl from Charlotte, but with good name recognition and a fairly moderate voting record Jack gets reelected each year. When he retires, though it's a GOP pick up for certain.
You even see the trends in the midwest and west. The Republicans have been gaining ground in states like Wisconsin and Minnesota, while the Democrats have been gaining in Montana and Colorado.
Population fluxes change the landscape too. After the 2010 Census a lot of the northern states where the Democrats have more dominance are going to lose several Congressional seats and electoral votes with them. Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, and Michigan are definite losses and possibly New York. California could possibly be in danger of losing one as well. The south and west, however, where Republicans have the upper hand are going to gain seats and votes. Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are looking at two more seats each as well as Florida, North Carolina, and Utah picking up at least one more. This doesn't mean, however, that Republicans will be flush with all of these electoral votes. It depends on who is moving to these states. Population fluctuations can turn a state from red to blue and vice versa.