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Originally Posted by Donkey_Left
You'll need to source that, because I've seen some quite contradictory numbers.
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Sure thing(sorry this took me so long to get back to you, it's the middle of finals).
On inflation:
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Over the last year, food and beverage prices have skyrocketed by 33 percent. Analysts expect this oil-rich South American country to close the year with an inflation rate of 20 percent or more despite government-imposed price controls on 400 consumer products.(1)
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And:
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Inflation ended 2006 at 17 percent, the highest in Latin America. Some economists claim actual inflation rates are even higher, saying official results are skewed by central bank calculations that overemphasize price-controlled products in government-subsidized supermarkets.(2)
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On crime:
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Walk into an emergency room in many poor parts of this booming, oil-rich nation on a weekend night and you will be overwhelmed — victims of gunshot wounds and drunken clashes line the corridors. Homicides are up 67 percent since 1999, and violent crime is the top concern of Venezuela’s voters as they head to the polls on Sunday...
...According to human rights groups and a Unesco study, Venezuela has the highest rate of gun-related deaths of 57 countries surveyed — far surpassing Brazil, one of the most violent nations in Latin America.
(3)
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And:
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Caracas has become South America's most violent capital. Worse, the police are themselves suspects in many of the killings. The public prosecutor's office says it is investigating over 6,000 alleged “extra-judicial executions” by police. The brothers were kidnapped by men in police uniform, as was a businessman kidnapped and murdered last month. Two dozen policemen are currently awaiting trial for killing three students, and wounding three others, who failed to stop at a roadblock.(4)
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The claim that inequality's risen is directly from Venezuela's central bank:
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According to the Central Bank, the distribution of income has become less equal under Mr Chávez. The Gini coefficient, a standard measure of inequality, has risen from 44.1 in 2000 to 48 in 2005. Over the same period, income distribution has become more equal in Brazil, Mexico and Chile.
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None of that is particularly controversial(even Chavez's most die hard supporters tend to acknowledge crime's gotten out of control), so I'm guessing the contradictory stats your referring to are on the issue of poverty, which does seem to have fallen in the past 2 years. Poverty rose during most of Chavez's first term, and the government finally registered it starting to fall around mid-2005, which was the exact same time they changed their methodology for measuring poverty to reflect access to basic food and social services, in addition to income, which would obviously help to push it downward.(6) There are competing claims as to whether per capita incomes have slightly risen, or slightly fallen(the numbers suggest it's negligible either way). It seems to be a given that purchasing power parity has definitely gone up due the subsidized markets, and various stipends paid out, but it's largely been negated by inflation.
Honestly, it was probably going too far to say that poverty's barely budged, but I do stand by the argument that Chavez's economic policies have brought, at best, very modest gains, and incurred hugely disproportionate costs.
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Originally Posted by Andrewl
f you have a source for this i would like to see it.
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See above.
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The numbers i have seen from 3rd party organizations, not the venezuelan government, show an increase in health, education, etc.. the standard metrics are on the rise.
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They very well may be, but in and of itself, that tells us nothing. You'd have to compare it to the record in Venezuela before Chavez and see if there's a particulary dramatic difference in the rates, as well as compare it to countries that are at a similar state of development. For instance, you mentioned infant mortality, and yes, infant mortality has gone down during Chavez's term in office, but it's shown more dramatic reductions in Brazil and Mexico(both of which maintained fairly orthodox macroeconomic policies), and besides, Venezuela's infant mortality rate has been going down for the past 40 years. When you consider that, it doesn't look like anything more than a middle income country muddling along. Interestingly, the instance of stunting and malnutrition of infants in Venezuela has actually gone up slightly during Chavez's term in office, largely due to the fact that public hospitals have deteriorated.(7)
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which clearly shows an increase in GDP in Venezuela since 2002.
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Given a huge increase in public spending and high oil prices, there's no way the Venezuelan economy couldn't be growing rapidly. That doesn't change the fact that Chavez's model is an economic dead end.
(1)
Inflation worries hit Venezuela - CNN.com
(2)
Venezuela announces plan to combat soaring inflation - International Herald Tribune
(3)
As Crime Soars for Venezuela, Chávez Coasts - New York Times
(4)The Economist, April 20th, 2006
(5)The Economist, December 6th, 2007
(6)Michael Shifter, 'In Search of Hugo Chavez'; Foreign Affairs, May/June 2006
(7)The Economist, December 6th, 2007