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Re: The Debate Really IS over... NOT!
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Originally Posted by Kijana
If it's total BS, where is the data to support your conclusion? With so many scientists apparently disagreeing with the theory, there should be some solid evidence in the literature, right?
So, where is it?
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For starters, these guys don't think the "consensus" is a slam-dunk:
SpringerLink - Journal Article
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Summary A novel multi-timescale analysis method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), is used to diagnose the variation of the annual mean temperature data of the global, Northern Hemisphere (NH) and China from 1881 to 2002. The results show that: (1) Temperature can be completely decomposed into four timescales quasi-periodic oscillations including an ENSO-like mode, a 6–8-year signal, a 20-year signal and a 60-year signal, as well as a trend. With each contributing ration of the quasi-periodicity discussed, the trend and the 60-year timescale oscillation of temperature variation are the most prominent. (2) It has been noticed that whether on century-scale or 60-year scales, the global temperature tends to descend in the coming 20 years. (3) On quasi 60-year timescale, temperature abrupt changes in China precede those in the global and NH, which provides a denotation for global climate changes. Signs also show a drop in temperature in China on century scale in the next 20 years. (4) The dominant contribution of CO2 concentration to global temperature variation is the trend. However, its influence weight on global temperature variation accounts for no more than 40.19%, smaller than those of the natural climate changes on the rest four timescales. Despite the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration, the patterns of 20-year and 60-year oscillation of global temperature are all in falling. Therefore, if CO2 concentration remains constant at present, the CO2 greenhouse effect will be deficient in counterchecking the natural cooling of global climate in the following 20 years. Even though the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the trend of global climate changes.
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IngentaConnect THE CARBON DIOXIDE THERMOMETER AND THE CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING
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Abstract:
Carbon dioxide in the air may be increasing because the world is warming. This possibility, which contradicts the hypothesis of an enhanced greenhouse warming driven by man-made emissions, is here pursued in two ways. First, increments in carbon dioxide are treated as readings of a natural thermometer that tracks global and hemispheric temperature deviations, as gauged by meteorologists' thermometers. Calibration of the carbon dioxide thermometer to conventional temperatures then leads to a history of carbon dioxide since 1856 that diverges from the ice-core record. Secondly, the increments of carbon dioxide can also be accounted for, without reference to temperature, by the combined effects of cosmic rays, El Nino and volcanoes. The most durable effect is due to cosmic rays. A solar wind history, used as a long-term proxy for the cosmic rays, gives a carbon dioxide history similar to that inferred from the global temperature deviations.
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ScienceDirect - Earth and Planetary Science Letters : Reconstruction of temperature in the Central Alps during the past 2000 yr from a δ18O stalagmite record
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Abstract
The precisely dated isotopic composition of a stalagmite from Spannagel Cave in the Central Alps is translated into a highly resolved record of temperature at high elevation during the past 2000 yr. Temperature maxima during the Medieval Warm Period between 800 and 1300 AD are in average about 1.7 °C higher than the minima in the Little Ice Age and similar to present-day values. The high correlation of this record to Δ14C suggests that solar variability was a major driver of climate in Central Europe during the past 2 millennia.
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SpringerLink - Journal Article
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Summary
Great interest in the problem of the atmospheric greenhouse effect (not only in scientific publications, but also in mass media), on the one hand, and the undoubtfully overemphasised contribution of the greenhouse effect to the global climate change, on the other hand, motivate a necessity to analyse the role which the greenhouse effect plays as a factor of climate change. Significant progress in the analysis of existing observational data as well as succesful development of numerical climate modelling which have been achieved during the recent few years create a basis for a new survey of the atmospheric greenhouse effect in the context of global climate change. Such a survey is the principal purpose of this paper. After discussing a notion of the greenhouse effect, the detailed analysis of the present-day and paleoclimatic observational data has been conducted with subsequent consideration of numerical modelling results. A special attention has been paid to assessments of the greenhouse warmingvs. aerosol cooling. Then possibilities of the early detection of a greenhouse climate signal have been analysed and a few comments on the global climate observing system have been made with the general conclusion that more observations and further numerical modelling efforts are necessary to more reliably assess the contributions of various mechanisms to the observed global climate changes. It is only in the context of a coupled totality of significant climate forming factors and processes that the contribution of the greenhouse effect may be estimated.
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Also, in general, one knows the "discussion" should be moved to a sandbox when derogatory versions of names are used.
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