
12-22-2007
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Vice President
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Member Since: Mar 2004
Location: Australia
Posts: 7,550
   
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Re: The Debate Really IS over... NOT!
Quote:
Originally Posted by WarOnIgnorance
LOL.
Have you seen the residue after the decomposition into four intrinsic mode functions ? It's on page 117. It shows a linear increase of 0.4°C !
Furthermore, while they admit that their method is critically sensitive to the endpoints, they still extrapolate from them. And that extrapolation looks, especially in the case of IMF-1, as a textbook example of a chaotic bifurcation, which isn't surprising actually giving both the method and the effect are sensitive towards the initial conditions. Thus, at least IMF-1 is just a guess. Nothing more. It's the economists approach to data : add functions till it looks like the data.
Until they give a functional explanation for the residue, all they did is play with maths a bit and end up with a residue that is no more than a moving average of the signal.
Do you think it's a coincidence that this sort of work comes from China where the rush to develop regardless of everything is the strongest ?
Besides, this particular article, and a few more you linked I see, are published by the company that publishes Bild of all things (Springer-Verlach). The exact opposite of scientific credibility.
Edit: The other three articles are not free. Do you have access to the full text ? If so, is the methodology in them any better ? IOW, are they worth buying ?
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I had noted that Calder was a statistician. I had also considered the situation WRT the Chinese geographers.
I had not realised the sources may be qustionable.
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