That can in fact be a factor but not the only one. The Financial Times reported the other day that Russia now thinks it's capacity has peaked and they are the second biggest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia. Even though more sources are available the oil companies are having to go to harder to reach places which means increased cost to pump it. Ultimately many factors are converging that will cause oil to go up and up. The only hope I can think of is maybe stability will eventually come to enough places that are pumping less than they can because of conflict but then again that has been a hope for a long time.

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"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"