No one knows how much oil is in the Earth.

What peak oil is about is more directly related to the amount of reserves, their production rate and their ability to increase production, compared to rising world demand.

Here is a GAO rpeort from last year.........

The report reaffirmed that peak oil is inevitable. It is the point of maximum oil production followed by irreversible declines for oil fields, regions, countries and eventually the world. The report found most experts project a peak and subsequent decline in world oil production could occur without warning any time between now and 2040. The quality and availability of data concerning oil reserves and production capabilities makes projections uncertain. In addition, significant above ground political and economic risks to increasing world production are detailed affecting a large majority of world reserves. Coupled with rising demand, these factors show increasing risks of significant disruption to oil supplies. The report found no focus, coordination or plans by the federal government to prepare for peak oil or other potential supply disruptions.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/US/GAO/GA...rt20070329.pdf

You see, it is not about running out of oil, it is about not being able to produce it fast enough.

Here check out this map and look at a bunch of the PEAK oil years. Each country is listed for when it's production started to decline, or a future estimate of when production will start declining.

David Strahan | Interactive Oil Depletion Atlas

There are a few exception, for example Iraq, which has a peak year of 2022, but production has already declined. Of course I am betting production will rise in the next few years.

It is not about the reserves, but about production levels when compared to reserves and growing demand.

See....

The Oil Drum | The Disconnect Between Oil Reserves and Production

Lots more links.....

Peak Oil - The End Of Cheap Oil

As oil reserves are depleting, oil production slows. You simply can't pump oil out of a declining reserve as fast as you can a new reserve.

While we are still discovering new fields, it takes time, money and effort to begin production. It is unlikely that we will be able to close the gap between production and demand soon enough to stop the coming crisis.

Last piece...........

Copyright © 2007 Earth Policy Institute

IS WORLD OIL PRODUCTION PEAKING?

Lester R. Brown

Is world oil production peaking? Quite possibly. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show a pronounced loss of momentum in the growth of oil production during the last few years. After climbing from 82.90 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2004 to 84.15 mb/d in 2005, output only increased to 84.80 mb/d in 2006 and then declined to 84.62 mb/d during the first 10 months of 2007.

Among the post-peak countries are the United States, which peaked at 9.6 mb/d in 1970, dropping to 5.1 mb/d in 2006; Venezuela, where output also peaked in 1970; and the two North Sea oil producers, the United Kingdom and Norway, which peaked in 1999 and 2000.

The pre-peak countries are dominated by Russia, now the world’s leading oil producer, having eclipsed Saudi Arabia in 2006. Two other countries with substantial potential for increasing output are Canada, largely because of its tar sands, and Kazakhstan, which is developing the Kashagan oil field in the Caspian Sea, the only large find in recent decades. Other pre-peak countries include Algeria, Angola, Brazil, Nigeria, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

Among the countries where production may be peaking are Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and China. The big question is Saudi Arabia. Saudi officials claim they can produce far more oil, but the giant Ghawar oil field—the world’s largest by far and the one that has supplied half of Saudi oil output for decades—is 56 years old and in its declining years. Saudi oil production data for the first eight months of 2007 show output of 8.62 mb/d, a drop of 6 percent from the 9.15 mb/d of 2006. If Saudi Arabia cannot restore growth in its oil production, then peak oil is on our doorstep.

In Mexico, the second-ranking supplier to the United States after Canada, output apparently peaked in 2004 at 3.4 mb/d. U.S. geologist Walter Youngquist notes that Cantarell, the country’s dominant oil field, is now in steep decline, and that Mexico could be an oil importer by 2015. Production in China, slightly higher than in Mexico, may also be about to peak.


November 15, 2007: Is World Oil Production Peaking?


Hope this helps.