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Old 08-23-2008
chrisl chrisl is offline
Lieutenant Governor

 
Member Since: Jul 2008
Location: California
Posts: 433

   
Re: If Global Warming Is Such A Problem Why Isn't The Left Complaining About Ca Fires

So as far as I can tell that list boils down to three articles published in scientific journals plus a bunch of popular press articles.


Douglas, 2007 looks at 22 atmospheric models. After choosing to remove some of the models from contention (which reduces the scatter), he finds that they are inconsistent with measurements of tropical air temperatures. He states that this disagrees with other analyses due to their choices in which model lines to exclude. Douglas may or may not have chosen the better subset of data to analyze, but he does not rule out global warming in his conclusions.

Scafetta and West, 2005 state the Sun may have had a larger effect than expected. Allowing an arbitrary amplitude of the response as a function of frequency, they fit for the best-fit correlation. The biggest obstacle is clearly that they only have twenty years of data, eg they are pulling out 2 best-fit parameters from ~3 independent data points which obviously limits their accuracy.
However, their best guess is 10-30% of the temperature rise of the last twenty years is due to the Sun. The author's make no claims on whether the remaining 70-90% is due to carbon dioxide and human activites.

The third article in the Energy Sources Journal I failed to access since I don't subscribe. The abstract states it's the results of a computer climate model of the kind you've disparaged.
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