Ummm, no. After Midway, the Japanese navy was still capable of offensive warfare, and more importantly, the Japanese were in possession of the resources they were seeking throughout the Pacific Rim and had their army positioned there. In 1945, none of that is true. Their ability to control their own destiny in the Pacific had disappeared. Game over from a functional standpoint, just not game over from a technical standpoint because their elites would not accept reality.
My argument is that the war is over prior to the bomb dropping. The pre war status quo is the american navy stationed in the pacific to prevent Japan from pursuing expansion and messing up western economic and trade interests (prior to their expansion, the americans, the british, the dutch, the french all have colonial possessions in the Pacific Rim. The japanese attacked the american navy because it was their biggest obstacle in them snatching these possessions for themselves. So, in 1945 we have Japan reduced to sheer desperation. All of their possessions in the Pacific Rim, which they needed for offensive warfare, are gone. all the oil, rubber, and tin needed to build a respectable modern attack force. So here we are. In a strategic sense the war is over. Japan can no longer threaten western economic and trade interests in the Pacific. What the hell does it matter what they are doing on THEIR island??? I dont care how delusional, how stubborn, how crazy their elites are. That stuff no longer has any effect on anyone outside that ISLAND. So, vaporizing the innocents in Japan to get an official surrender, (when the war is over from a strategic standpoint, Japan cannot expand or move forward without giving in to the west) makes no sense.

The only thing that bomb was dropped for was to begin the cold war with the new perceived threat, the soviet union.

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