Originally Posted by Jason Marcel

I think there's a whole lot of bullshit that won't ever come to fruition. For instance, there won't be a Bradley effect. Obama finished on average, 2% above the polls in the 57 primary contests against Hillary Clinton. No Bradley there.

I think the youth vote is for real this time. They represent an average of like 8 or 9% of the primary/caucus votes usually, but this year it was 17%, which means they're energized and they're not going to just go away. As for cellphone only users not being polled, I don't think it's such a dramatic number that it would change things much. Most pollsters still insist that the numbers for cell users and landline people would be about the same. But this year, it certainly feels like the campuses are going to count for a little more.

I don't think many people change their minds. The American electorate is like 80-85% dug in. It's only some independent voters and a few undecideds who kind of wait until the last minute, and I think they're the only ones who change their mind as they go.