This theory might fare a bit better in your country than ours. At least for a few more years, the US media is still independant enough that they would ferret out a conspiracy the size of what you are suggesting.

I always keep an open mind, but the idea that the "inside" group" are pro war and that is why they voted for Iraq, misses the mark. The "inside group" voted for the war resolution as they had no real idea of public opinion. Post 9/11 was a wierd time in the US. Some would also argue that the resolution was needed for the president to push/cajole the UN to take action. In other word the president needed a sharp stick to go along with his speaking stupidly. (oh I mean softly)

Also regarding Bush, his beady little eyes look scared to me. I assume Rove and others in the Administration have recently told Bush he has to get out their and work, if he wants to be reelected. That does not seem predetermined to me.