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Old 07-09-2005
kathaksung kathaksung is offline
Governor

 
Member Since: Feb 2001
Location: San Jose, Ca. U.S.A.
Posts: 541

   
Re: See US politics From another angle .

S.S. is Social security not Social risk
BOOMERJEFF said,
"Your equation leaves out the human creativity/innovation/invention/management element.

For example, Cell phone Co may have invested $1 million on R&D to develop the ability to take pictures. They may invest $2 million in a factory to make the new phones that take pics.

.....

So, the $3 milion invested in the picture phones could generate much more profit than $3 million invested in phone-only phones, or $3 million invested in improved pots and pans, or $3 million invested in improved lawn mowers. Thus, the market value - not your theoretical book value - of the picture cell phone stock will rise many times as much as the market value of stock in the phone-only cell company, or stock in the pots & pans company or stock in the lawn mower co.

===========

When the debate starts, I always encounter with arguments like above one. It used to be:
1. They use unique sample to covert all.
2. Businees belong to dividend category but they mix it with stock trading.

My Answer

1. A new technique will make big money, that's true. It used to be invested by V.C. (venture capital). When one such technique succeeded, there may be 9 others failed. V.C. may invested in 10 companys with one million each. One company succeeded and 9 others failed. The average return is still flat.

Or in stock market, 10 people invested, one made high return like you said, the others suffer a lost you don't mention at. The average return you avoid to talk is still low.

As a matter of fact, it's like the propaganda of gamble business. They say every week there is a millionare prize winner. That the critics neglected the lucky element(in your word, "creativity/innovation/invention/management element.)

Here we talk about average return. Not a lottery. And that average return of stock market for ordinary people is almost nothing consider to inflation. I have that fact in message "6. Average investor in stock market" in this forum.
2. The profit still came from potential loser.

In your sample. If the stock price went up 5 times to the original one and you sold all the stock, then to my equation: 12 million (profit gain by original investor)+ 3 million ( Capital gain of phone company)= 15 million (potential loss of new investors who bought the stock)

Remember the profit gain in stock market is always from the buyer. Because however a company successful the money paid to stock trading is always from the stock buyer (potential loser) not the company.

Then you may ask where is the value created by "human creativity/innovation/invention/management element" goes?

It reflects in dividend distribution. And it used to be a flatened one because such success is always be in consideration when the stock was issued. In another word, the profit was gained by inventors and VC capitalist. (VC capitalist must average the profit with other failed cases) Have you ever heard a company paying dividend equal to its stock price, or even 50% of it? So far as I know, the average dividend is close to the rate of interest bank paid to its customers.

Of course, I always talk about average not lottery or unique accidence. Social Security is a system to guarantee most people have a minimum income when they retired. Not put them in a risk life when they got old.
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