I firmly believe that North Korea will eventually self-destruct. I wrote this (albeit long) paper for my class studying theories of revolution, and feel that it applies well to this discussion.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

A peninsula torn asunder, divided by thousands of land mines and years of animosity.

Troops and artillery stand poised to unleash their armaments. Ironically, both sides share

common ancestry, but differ radically in political, social and economic structure. This split did

not emerge suddenly, but was product of a larger global trend: the proliferation of communism.

Akin to the standard, communism took hold in the north while the south, aided by western

democratic powers, resisted the change. This disunion has led to the vastly different nations of

North and South Korea. On one end of the spectrum, is an “Asian Tiger”, with the bustling

capital of Seoul and a booming economy driven by cutting edge technology. What exists in North

Korea is a stark contrast. A nation led by what many claim to be a psychopath (Kim Jong Il), it

boasts a million man army and celebrates the advent of nuclear weaponry. But below this capable

facade lies a secretive world of mass food shortages, brutal totalitarianism and forced captivity.

With the horrific conditions within North Korea, many wonder wether a revolution may occur,

and if so, when would it take place. By analyzing this mysterious country through the lens of

revolutionary theorists, we will see that it is highly likely for a revolution to take place in North

Korea, especially within the next decade.

It would take pages to describe just how terrible the conditions are in North Korea.

Interviews with defectors, statistics on the failing economy and deaths resulting of starvation,

images and video smuggled out of the country showing torture and beatings at the hands of the

government are all plentiful and easily accessible. To sum it up best, North Korea may be

resorting to giant rabbits to help alleviate its current food crisis. Arguably, many North Koreans

have passed the “state of pauperism” that Karl Marx described, yet no revolution has occurred in

the almost half a century the regime has been in power. For this reason, the Marxist theory of

revolution cannot be applied to a situation as unique as North Korea. A far more effective

explanation is found within Theda Skocpol’s work. The conditions found in North Korea are not

enough to spark a revolution. But according to Theda, once coupled with an international crisis, a

revolution is highly likely. In North Korea, we already have a piece of the puzzle, the conditions

domestically. Recently, North Korea has been gaudily and provocatively testing missiles, even a

nuclear device. One long range missile test even took place on the fourth of July, timed to taunt

the international community. If this trend continues, international pressure will grow on North

Korea. What is crucial, is that China, the last remaining “ally” of North Korea is beginning to

show intolerance toward the nations actions. Slowly, the seeds for an international crisis are

being sown. It is very possible that within the next ten years, it will grow to the point of serious

action on North Korea, that may create a void in power and set the stage for a revolution.

Perhaps what is truly protecting the regime from revolution is not intimidation, weaponry

and troops. It is in fact the veil of secrecy that has been built around the North Korean

population. Being completely removed from the rest of the world has quite possible left the

citizens of North Korea unaware of just how bad their situation is when compared to the rest of

the world. If we look at the relative deprivation theory, we find that without a reference group,

people will not become as unhappy as they would, had they had an opportunity to compare

themselves to the more prosperous. Heavily guarded and patrolled borders may stop people from

traveling into and out of North Korea, but rapidly evolving technology is infinitely harder to halt.

In a recent documentary aired on CNN: “Life Inside North Korea”, a North Korean defector

(unnamed for security purposes) managed to show the world just how bad it was inside the secret

state through the use of a video camera and a cell-phone camera. By sharing his videos on the

internet, and through satellite television, the images quickly spread across the world. With the

advent of cheaper, more widely available technology and the border less, unregulated world of

the internet, especially in today’s “computer age”, the veil of secrecy is slowly beginning to

crumble. Similarly to the fall of the “Iron Curtain”, information will eventually allow one side to

have access to the other. When North Koreans see the difference between their own towns and

villages as opposed to the glistening skyscrapers of their neighbors to the south, it will be hard

for relative deprivation not to take place. The North Korean government will obviously try to

stop it, but the mobility and anonymity provided by new technological tools coupled with the

momentum the movement will gain should make this task impossible. Soon after, it is probable

that revolutionary zeal will be ignited, spurring the once slumber peasants into action. Ironically,

a nation created by international forces may be dismantled by pressure and technology imported

from the outside world.