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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 09-27-2006
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SamInTheSouth SamInTheSouth is offline
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Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Jim Cramer is that crazy guy who does the Mad Money show in the evening on MSNBC. This is a blog entry from him yesterday. I thought it was an interesting observation.

Quote:
Politcal Pressures Driving Defense Stocks
09/26/2006 1:42 PM

The clearest indicator to me that the Democrats are going to lose big in November -- that's right lose big -- is the run in the defense stocks. These should be getting hammered here. Just obliterated.

Instead they are all hitting 52-week-highs.

To me these moves can only be happening because the market senses that the Democrats -- widely perceived to be anti-defense -- are going to be blown out in November.

Real Money
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Old 09-27-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Ah, the great military-industrial-congressional complex. Gotta love it. I should dust off my resume and see if any firearms manufacturers are hiring. Job security for the foreseeable future.


Last edited by Jefe; 09-27-2006 at 11:20 AM.
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Old 09-27-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

So long as the Democratic message is just that of being Anti-Republican they are going to lose, and rightfully so. A party should say this is why you should vote for us and this is what we will do. You can't go on a vote for us to stop the other guy ticket. It never works.

The US could stand to have a sizeable third party. Doesn't have to win, but be enough to cost some votes and make some noise. Would keep things in check a little better.
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Old 09-27-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Or the run up in defense stocks could just be speculation that Bush is going to war with Iran and we can expect an "October Surprise"...
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Old 09-27-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy1382 View Post
So long as the Democratic message is just that of being Anti-Republican they are going to lose, and rightfully so. A party should say this is why you should vote for us and this is what we will do. You can't go on a vote for us to stop the other guy ticket. It never works...
It may work as part of the message, but never as the single message. People don't just vote against A, they want to know why they should vote for B.
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Old 09-27-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy1382 View Post
The US could stand to have a sizeable third party. Doesn't have to win, but be enough to cost some votes and make some noise. Would keep things in check a little better.
Amen, brother!
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Old 09-27-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jefe View Post
Ah, the great military-industrial-congressional complex. Gotta love it. I should dust off my resume and see if any firearms manufacturers are hiring. Job security for the foreseeable future.

Huh? Jim Cramer is a brilliant and eccentric stockbroker - not a military man....
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Old 09-27-2006
Marcus1124 Marcus1124 is offline
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Well, the real-time direct market-based indicators for the election are not showing a "lose big" for the democrats, they are still showing Democrats gaining seats, but the expectations of them taking the Senate have never been very good, and the expectations of them taking the House have plummeted in recent weeks (to below 40%)
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Old 09-27-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

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Originally Posted by DGG View Post
It may work as part of the message, but never as the single message. People don't just vote against A, they want to know why they should vote for B.
Yes -I would certainly agree for most people, but there is a "protest vote" in every election: people who simply vote against a particular incumbent or party.
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Old 09-27-2006
varrussword varrussword is offline
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

I posted a thread on this not 2months ago. The market is an excellent indicator of the political climate of the country. Not only that but opec is in a state a panic at the fact the price of oil is hovering around 60$ per barrel. What this means to the consumers is as fall sets in people travel less; summers over. Price per gallon is 1.99$ here and looking like it's going to go lower before the election.

Varus
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Old 09-27-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by SamInTheBurgh View Post
Jim Cramer is that crazy guy who does the Mad Money show in the evening on MSNBC. This is a blog entry from him yesterday. I thought it was an interesting observation.
Interesting, yes, but the conclusion he comes to is stupid.

The main reason defense stocks are climbing is that it's now obvious to everyone that there will be no pullout from the M.E. any time soon, regardless of which party wins on the Hill.
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Old 09-27-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Well the DJIA is now looking at an all time high, let's see if that holds should the GOP hold on to both houes or not.
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Old 09-27-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by Billy1382 View Post
The US could stand to have a sizeable third party. Doesn't have to win, but be enough to cost some votes and make some noise. Would keep things in check a little better.
That is exactly how Clinton got elected. Without Ross Perot, Bush 1 would have been re-elected.
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Old 09-27-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim View Post
Huh? Jim Cramer is a brilliant and eccentric stockbroker - not a military man....
I wasn't really commenting on Jim Cramer...I'm not at all familiar with him. I was just making a semi-sarcastic remark about the current strength of defense stocks. You know, the 'military-industrial complex' that Eisenhower warned about.

I recently saw an ad for a job at a military gun manufacturer. Being in manufacturing, I'm always brainstorming about what kind of goods we still manufacture in this counrty (and thereby what kind of jobs I might be able to find). I'm not sure if I could bring myself to work there, though.
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Old 09-28-2006
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Re: Wall Street Could Be Prediciting Republican Wins

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim View Post
Yes -I would certainly agree for most people, but there is a "protest vote" in every election: people who simply vote against a particular incumbent or party.
Yes, but never enough as a basis of voters to win the whole election.
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