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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 1 Week Ago
jviehe's Avatar
jviehe jviehe is offline
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No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

A reccesion is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. While its possible that started in April 2008, it didnt start in January. Production is still increasing. Good news for the economy.

Quote:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 2008 (ADVANCE)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008,
according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real
GDP also increased 0.6 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that
are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The first-
quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on May 29, 2008.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services, private inventory investment, exports of goods
and services, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from
residential fixed investment and PCE for durable goods. Imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, increased.

The increase in real GDP is the same as in the fourth quarter, reflecting an upturn in inventory
investment that was offset by an upturn in imports, and downturns in nonresidential structures, in PCE
for durable goods, and in PCE for nondurable goods.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.12 percentage point to the first-quarter growth in real GDP
after contributing 0.16 percentage point to the fourth-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output subtracted
0.30 percentage point from the first-quarter growth in real GDP after subtracting 0.86 percentage point
from the fourth-quarter growth.


FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates.
Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained
(2000) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.

This news release is available on BEA's Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights
related to this release.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 1 Week Ago
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

dude, lets pull an oldie but a goodie here; Rare Earth; "Get ready ....cause here it comes"..... the "team " will be by to whack this thread shortly...
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Old 1 Week Ago
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Couple things....
.6% increase is basically flat...which reiterates what everyone has been saying - that things seem to not be further declining, just not getting better.
Secondly - these are preliminary results which are often slightly off...so you might be jumping the gun a bit.
Third - GDP is not indicative of an overall increase, with such a flat (aka "no") growth - there are numerous markets that are down...something even the most optimistic person can't deny.

Printing (what I do) is a bellwhether indicator...Printing last quarter was down .7% overall
Newspaper advertising, another bellwether - had record lows 1st quarter.

Basically - the economy is not good, I don't know a single person that thinks otherwise....I like your optimism jveihe...I wish it was accurate.
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

agreed....our biz bottom line right now, is basically being held up by apac and europe.....
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Old 1 Week Ago
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Sometimes it seems like nobody here works for a living. Because wage growth has been flat to negative since 2001 but so many here are always touting the growing economy as if the statisitcs quoted have some relevance to real world economic concerns like buying groceries and paying utility bills.
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Old 1 Week Ago
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by timj219 View Post
Sometimes it seems like nobody here works for a living. Because wage growth has been flat to negative since 2001 but so many here are always touting the growing economy as if the statisitcs quoted have some relevance to real world economic concerns like buying groceries and paying utility bills.
Absolutely...this is the first generation since the depression that a worker entering into the same job, at the same plant - will make LESS actual dollar per hour than 10 years ago.
Not to mention reduction in benefits, high food costs etc. - no doubt for the blue collar Joe - this economy is nothing less than hell.
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
Absolutely...this is the first generation since the depression that a worker entering into the same job, at the same plant - will make LESS actual dollar per hour than 10 years ago.
Not to mention reduction in benefits, high food costs etc. - no doubt for the blue collar Joe - this economy is nothing less than hell.
Maybe if you say it enough, it will be true. Meanwhile, the rest of will continue enjoying our lives.
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Old 3 Days Ago
southrnfried southrnfried is offline
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by timj219 View Post
Sometimes it seems like nobody here works for a living. Because wage growth has been flat to negative since 2001 but so many here are always touting the growing economy as if the statisitcs quoted have some relevance to real world economic concerns like buying groceries and paying utility bills.
Ok how many here that actually work are earning the same as they did in 2001?

So you're solution to the fact that the economy is growing is to change the definition of which statistics to follow? And is this change based on your political ideology or an actual attempt to determine market trends?

Simply put a growing economy means more jobs. The primary market that's taken a hit the last couple of years is the housing market and that's all about predatory lending and illegal immigrant labour.
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Old 3 Days Ago
southrnfried southrnfried is offline
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
Absolutely...this is the first generation since the depression that a worker entering into the same job, at the same plant - will make LESS actual dollar per hour than 10 years ago.
Not to mention reduction in benefits, high food costs etc. - no doubt for the blue collar Joe - this economy is nothing less than hell.
Could it be that those plants have become less dependent on labour thereby decrease the value of the labour a worker performs? Or it could be that the company is bogged down paying retirement packages the company can't afford at the expense of present day workers. You're making quite a few broad assumptions to validate your ideas.
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Old 3 Days Ago
CorpMediaSux CorpMediaSux is offline
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Quote:
Maybe if you say it enough, it will be true. Meanwhile, the rest of will continue enjoying our lives.
While you're enjoying your lives, the rest of us will wait around to see if you figure out that other people exist in the universe besides yourself. I better pack a lunch.
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Old 3 Days Ago
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by southrnfried View Post
Ok how many here that actually work are earning the same as they did in 2001?

So you're solution to the fact that the economy is growing is to change the definition of which statistics to follow? And is this change based on your political ideology or an actual attempt to determine market trends?

Simply put a growing economy means more jobs. The primary market that's taken a hit the last couple of years is the housing market and that's all about predatory lending and illegal immigrant labour.
I'm saying these statistics are meaningless to most americans and have no connection to the financial well being of most americans. I couldn't care less if people who need to follow the "market" use these measures all the time. I'm just tired of them being touted as meaningful to most people. For most americans the important statistics are wage growth and buying power. Net new jobs is also important but net new jobs that pay as much as the old ones is even more so.

Professional investors find these numbers very helpful but they are the wrong ones for determining public policy.
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Old 3 Days Ago
Marcus1124 Marcus1124 is offline
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Consider this premise, due to technology, we will steadily be able to produce more, with fewer and fewer people. Is this a good or bad thing for mankind in the long-run?
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Old 3 Days Ago
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by southrnfried View Post
Could it be that those plants have become less dependent on labour thereby decrease the value of the labour a worker performs? Or it could be that the company is bogged down paying retirement packages the company can't afford at the expense of present day workers. You're making quite a few broad assumptions to validate your ideas.
What ideas are you talking about?
I have listed some economic factual data, I am not aware of any "ideas" that I have put forth in this thread...nor am I making any "broad assumptions"...if you are not aware that for blue collar laborers things are not so good....then I don't know what planet your living on - it sure isn't the one I occupy.
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Old 3 Days Ago
southrnfried southrnfried is offline
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by timj219 View Post
I'm saying these statistics are meaningless to most americans and have no connection to the financial well being of most americans. I couldn't care less if people who need to follow the "market" use these measures all the time. I'm just tired of them being touted as meaningful to most people. For most americans the important statistics are wage growth and buying power. Net new jobs is also important but net new jobs that pay as much as the old ones is even more so.

Professional investors find these numbers very helpful but they are the wrong ones for determining public policy.
Every citizen "needs" to follow the market. If you don't you really don't have a leg to stand on. And you can't just pick and choose which statistics you want to base your ideas on. In order to gain an accurate picture you have to review all available sources; again following the market.
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Old 3 Days Ago
southrnfried southrnfried is offline
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Re: No Recession Yet - GDP up in Q1-2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
What ideas are you talking about?
I have listed some economic factual data, I am not aware of any "ideas" that I have put forth in this thread...nor am I making any "broad assumptions"...if you are not aware that for blue collar laborers things are not so good....then I don't know what planet your living on - it sure isn't the one I occupy.
You're making false assumptions based on this data. You said;

Quote:
this is the first generation since the depression that a worker entering into the same job, at the same plant - will make LESS actual dollar per hour than 10 years ago.
What is this based on? I didn't see a source. You are aware that the same job 10yrs ago might not have the value it does today aren't you? And when you mention plants I tend to think Detroit and the auto industry and how the unions and retired employee payouts are killing the US auto industry.
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