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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Perhaps theyll release them when we elect someone with balls in 2014.
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2009
Voland's Avatar
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Quote:
Originally Posted by Commodore View Post

How are we weakening the opposition by agreeing with them and supporting them?

Given the history of western interventions in Iran, especially by the US and Britain, it makes sense not to allow the iranian governement to paint the demonstrators as western puppets who want to reinstall the Shah etc. by too openly backing them. Such a move could backfire. But there are countless other ways of providing support beneath the surface anyway...........
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

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Originally Posted by SamInTheSouth View Post
They won't do anything forceful to get their people returned should Iran refuse. Don't extrapolate.


Oh, the last time the US tried something forceful in Iran to get hostages released the success wasnīt remarkably great. ( Link above, Operation Eagle Claw)
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

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Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
Perhaps theyll release them when we elect someone with balls in 2014.

Obama got Mrs. Saberi released, right ?
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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Quote:
Originally Posted by Voland View Post
Given the history of western interventions in Iran, especially by the US and Britain, it makes sense not to allow the iranian governement to paint the demonstrators as western puppets who want to reinstall the Shah etc. by too openly backing them. Such a move could backfire. But there are countless other ways of providing support beneath the surface anyway...........
Considering resistance to western influence is what got them into this mess to begin with, only the Ayatollahs faithful are going to get riled up by this, and I'm afraid that ship sailed a long time ago.
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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Quote:
Originally Posted by Commodore View Post
Considering resistance to western influence is what got them into this mess to begin with, only the Ayatollahs faithful are going to get riled up by this, and I'm afraid that ship sailed a long time ago.

It was actually a mixture of both. Given the fact that the installation of the Shah and keeping up support for him even when his regime more and more descended into a brutal dictatorship wasnīt one of the smartest moves of western foreign politics in the region in the last century.
And those Iranians who donīt want to have these good old days back arenīt all fans of the Ayatollahs.
And also just take a look at the leaders of the opposition : Moussavi and Karroubi are both founding fathers of the islamic revolution, Moussavi has even been prime minister under Khomeini. They feel their ideals betrayed by Ahmadinejad and they certainly prefer a more conciliatory way of politics and a more open society than Iran has right now. But they are NOT enemies of the islamic system and they are certainly not Americas or Europes candidates.......

Last edited by Voland; 06-28-2009 at 04:30 PM.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Great Britain is the bogeyman of Iranian politics, since it was the major colonial power in the region. They blame the British regularly for things that go wrong. They claim that the current unrest was fomented by the BBC Persian service.
So rounding up some Iranians who work for the British Embassy is just a way to get Britain linked to a story about foreign spies causing all the trouble.
They may even threaten to execute some of the "Spies" to show they are serious.
From what I have heard, from my usually reliable news source NPR, things may slow down and may appear to returning to normal, but there is a mourning cycle built into Shia Islam, where the 40th day after the death is observed as a day of mourning, if the mourning of the deaths which occurred during the recent unrest is large enough, they will be regarded as holy martyrs, and the Ayatollahs are doomed.

So the mythology behind the election is more important than the election itself, it either goes down as a foreign plot that was foiled by the Guardians, or it is a corrupt gang posing as Holy men who are exposed by the Holy Martyrs of June.
And based on the mythology that takes hold, the outcome will be produced later in the year.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Five of the nine detained british employees haven apparently been released and the rest is allegedly held for "questioning". Meanwhile Iran is keeping up its accusations that Britain and America orchestrated the unrest.......


Iran says five local British embassy staff freed
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Quote:
Originally Posted by Voland View Post
Five of the nine detained british employees haven apparently been released and the rest is allegedly held for "questioning". Meanwhile Iran is keeping up its accusations that Britain and America orchestrated the unrest.......


Iran says five local British embassy staff freed
Of course it is, its the only way it can even try and pacify the people; unite against a common enemy.
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

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Originally Posted by WharfedaleTiger View Post
Of course it is, its the only way it can even try and pacify the people; unite against a common enemy.


That is certainly correct. Problem is that they can count on a mountain of resentment against Britain among large parts of the population, dating from the nineteenth centurys colonial adventures until british involvement in the overthrow of the democratic prime minister Mossadegh in 1953, followed by the installation of the Shah..........


Mohammed Mosaddeq - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Quote:
Originally Posted by Voland View Post
Obama got Mrs. Saberi released, right ?
Did he?
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"To take from one, because it is thought his own industry and that of his father has acquired too much, in order to spare to others who (or whose fathers) have not exercised equal industry and skill, is to violate arbitrarily the first principle of association, "to guarantee to everyone a free exercise of his industry and the fruits acquired by it."

-Thomas Jefferson
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Didnīt he ?

Roxana Saberi - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Quote:
Originally Posted by Voland View Post
We dont really know. We have some public statements, no doubt some private stuff happening. I didnt really see any threats or negotiations.
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"To take from one, because it is thought his own industry and that of his father has acquired too much, in order to spare to others who (or whose fathers) have not exercised equal industry and skill, is to violate arbitrarily the first principle of association, "to guarantee to everyone a free exercise of his industry and the fruits acquired by it."

-Thomas Jefferson
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2009
Speaker of the House

 
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
We dont really know. We have some public statements, no doubt some private stuff happening. I didnt really see any threats or negotiations.
Had you seen any threats we would have guaranteed she wouldn't have been freed. Knowing when to handle things quietly and cautiously is just part of achieving policy objectives. That's a lesson some never learn.
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2009
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Re: British embassy staff arrested in Iran

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
We dont really know. We have some public statements, no doubt some private stuff happening. I didnt really see any threats or negotiations.
Indeed, nothing direct. Nor could Obama either threaten or negotiate over her freedom. But at the time Obama was taking a rather soft line with them and interestingly she was realised against expectation at that time.
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