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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 04-30-2007
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Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Looks like its time for more tax cuts, but that wont happen till 2008 and only if Republicans retake congress. Now that the Dems have congress it will be interesting to see who the media blames when the economy is not so rosy. I assume it will be Bush as always, but what happens if it cotinues down and a democrat is president. Will they get the blame like Bush did in 2001 or will Bush get the blame still. Im guessing the latter. Luckily even a small increase results in nearly 200 billion more dollars in peoples pockets.

BEA: News Release: Gross Domestic Product

Quote:
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 2007 (ADVANCE)


Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2007,
according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real
GDP increased 2.5 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that
are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The first-
quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on May 31, 2007.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and state and local government spending that were partly
offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and
federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the first quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports,
an upturn in imports, a deceleration in PCE for nondurable goods, and a downturn in federal government
spending that were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, an upturn in
equipment and software, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an acceleration in PCE
for durable goods.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.04 percentage point to the first-quarter growth in real GDP
after contributing 0.22 percentage point to the fourth-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output contributed
0.09 percentage point to the first-quarter growth in real GDP after subtracting 1.18 percentage points
from the fourth-quarter growth.
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Old 04-30-2007
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
Looks like its time for more tax cuts, but that wont happen till 2008 and only if Republicans retake congress. Now that the Dems have congress it will be interesting to see who the media blames when the economy is not so rosy. I assume it will be Bush as always, but what happens if it cotinues down and a democrat is president. Will they get the blame like Bush did in 2001 or will Bush get the blame still. Im guessing the latter. Luckily even a small increase results in nearly 200 billion more dollars in peoples pockets.

BEA: News Release: Gross Domestic Product
That's funny. I was taught that recessions are normal and are needed from time to time to keep things in check. I never knew that if we just kept passing tax cuts we would never have recessions. Forget the fact that we need infrastructure to keep things going. Anyway, we are going into a recessions possibly but exports are rising thanks to the value of the Dollar compared to the Euro and Yen so the markets are able to remain on an upward trend.
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Old 04-30-2007
Americano Americano is offline
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by partofme View Post
That's funny. I was taught that recessions are normal and are needed from time to time to keep things in check. I never knew that if we just kept passing tax cuts we would never have recessions. Forget the fact that we need infrastructure to keep things going. Anyway, we are going into a recessions possibly but exports are rising thanks to the value of the Dollar compared to the Euro and Yen so the markets are able to remain on an upward trend.
You're happy that export numbers are increasing due to USD devaluation?
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Old 04-30-2007
Americano Americano is offline
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
Looks like its time for more tax cuts, but that wont happen till 2008 and only if Republicans retake congress. Now that the Dems have congress it will be interesting to see who the media blames when the economy is not so rosy. I assume it will be Bush as always, but what happens if it cotinues down and a democrat is president. Will they get the blame like Bush did in 2001 or will Bush get the blame still. Im guessing the latter. Luckily even a small increase results in nearly 200 billion more dollars in peoples pockets.

BEA: News Release: Gross Domestic Product
What happens to that miserable GDP number when government deficit spending based on debt is subtracted?
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Old 04-30-2007
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by Americano View Post
You're happy that export numbers are increasing due to USD devaluation?
Increased exports are good for our companies which is good for me since I have invested in the stock market.
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Old 04-30-2007
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by partofme View Post
That's funny. I was taught that recessions are normal and are needed from time to time to keep things in check. I never knew that if we just kept passing tax cuts we would never have recessions. Forget the fact that we need infrastructure to keep things going. Anyway, we are going into a recessions possibly but exports are rising thanks to the value of the Dollar compared to the Euro and Yen so the markets are able to remain on an upward trend.
A tax cut is a proven way to inject the market. All of a sudden people have billions more dollars to spend or invest. We are far from a minimum taxation level and there is plenty of room to cut. I have to wonder what rediculous growth we would have had the govt not been taking 20% of the wealth every year and wasting a lot of it.
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Old 04-30-2007
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by Americano View Post
What happens to that miserable GDP number when government deficit spending based on debt is subtracted?
It becomes 1.1%. But then I could be misunderstanding you as usual. Im no economics professor.
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Old 04-30-2007
Americano Americano is offline
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
A tax cut is a proven way to inject the market. All of a sudden people have billions more dollars to spend or invest. We are far from a minimum taxation level and there is plenty of room to cut. I have to wonder what rediculous growth we would have had the govt not been taking 20% of the wealth every year and wasting a lot of it.
You're neglecting to mention that for any measure of success government reductions in spending must accompany tax cuts. That hasn't been the case.
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Old 04-30-2007
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by Americano View Post
You're happy that export numbers are increasing due to USD devaluation?
Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
A tax cut is a proven way to inject the market. All of a sudden people have billions more dollars to spend or invest. We are far from a minimum taxation level and there is plenty of room to cut. I have to wonder what rediculous growth we would have had the govt not been taking 20% of the wealth every year and wasting a lot of it.
While I will not argue with the fact that taxes can be so high as to harm growth I have a feeling that you would go to such a extreme on the other end that it would cause other kinds of harm.
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Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
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Old 05-01-2007
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by Americano View Post
You're neglecting to mention that for any measure of success government reductions in spending must accompany tax cuts. That hasn't been the case.
Actually it has. If your review the budget youll see plenty of cuts. This has not translated to over all decreases in the depts but just in the rate of growth. This is enough to allow natural economic growth to catch up with govt growth. Which is why we are nearing surpluses again. But dont mistake that as support for growth. I would happily cut to the hilt the govt. And lower taxes at the same time. But if Ill take whatever I can get.
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Old 05-01-2007
Americano Americano is offline
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
Actually it has. If your review the budget youll see plenty of cuts. This has not translated to over all decreases in the depts but just in the rate of growth. This is enough to allow natural economic growth to catch up with govt growth. Which is why we are nearing surpluses again. But dont mistake that as support for growth. I would happily cut to the hilt the govt. And lower taxes at the same time. But if Ill take whatever I can get.
Natural economic growth in a post-industrial debtor nation migrating to a service economy is an oxymoron. Where are these surpluses going to come from with record government expansion and deficit spending forecast into 2012 by idealistic political budgets with accompanying increases in debt service using a devalued currency?
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Old 05-01-2007
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jviehe jviehe is offline
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by Americano View Post
Natural economic growth in a post-industrial debtor nation migrating to a service economy is an oxymoron. Where are these surpluses going to come from with record government expansion and deficit spending forecast into 2012 by idealistic political budgets with accompanying increases in debt service using a devalued currency?
As usual, you lost me. Please speak in laymans terms.
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Old 05-05-2007
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by Americano View Post
Natural economic growth in a post-industrial debtor nation migrating to a service economy is an oxymoron. Where are these surpluses going to come from with record government expansion and deficit spending forecast into 2012 by idealistic political budgets with accompanying increases in debt service using a devalued currency?
increases in debt servicing with a devalued currency eh??

well the debt is in the same devalued currency this of course means the nominal value of the debt is decreasing with the value of the currency. Now maybe if the government issued debt in euros and paid things back in dollars then we would be trouble - but that is not the case. I am not sure what the hell a devalued dollar has anything to do with debt servicing other that pissing of foreign holders of our debt.


Natural economic growth in a post-industrial debtor nation migrating to a service economy is an oxymoron.


Mind explaining how that is an oxymoron?


And I suppose surpluses would come from the record tax revenues being generated by record corporate profits. The deficit has been decreasing each year for several years now. Tax revenues from corporations have continued to exceed budget forecasts and have been driving the deficit down.
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Old 06-04-2007
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

This has been updated to now be 0.6% growth in the 1Q, 2007. I wonder if there is a coincidence between democrats taking over congress and the economy plummeting. Im pretty sure they accused Bush of the reccesion when he took over.

Regardless, we are in need of a economic infusion via tax cuts.

BEA: News Release: Gross Domestic Product and Corporate Profits
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Old 06-04-2007
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Re: Economy slowing down? - 1.3% growth in 1Q 2007

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
This has been updated to now be 0.6% growth in the 1Q, 2007. I wonder if there is a coincidence between democrats taking over congress and the economy plummeting. Im pretty sure they accused Bush of the reccesion when he took over.

Regardless, we are in need of a economic infusion via tax cuts.

BEA: News Release: Gross Domestic Product and Corporate Profits
yeah we all know taxcuts solve economical problems (sarcasm). I think you should have a good look at the system used in scandinavia. The governement supplies a lot of services for laberors and children which increase the workforce size and productivity, leading to a high gdp and good economical growth. These countries are doing just as good as the USA.

lowering taxes for economical growth is a short term policy, basically its boosting the economy now by shifting problems to the future (increased debt). Taxcuts aren't as good as some people make it seem.

Good cheap health care, governement programs for child daycare, subsidized jobs for the unemployed and cheap loans to those who recieve education structurally increase the size and quality of the labor force and the economy. Ironically not by lowering taxes, but by increasing them.

Last edited by erikvv; 06-04-2007 at 09:37 AM.
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