First, the US Department of Treasury, who maintains the SS assets, has stated as much this year. Secondly, if that is a source that is dismissed by you, then we can look at a more updated report (later than your 2004 report) from the trustees:

THE Summary of the 2007 Annual Reports

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I am an American. That's the way most of us put it, just matter of factly. They are plain words, those four: you could write them on your thumbnail, or sweep them clear across this bright autumn sky. But remember too, that they are more than just words. They are a way of life. So whenever you speak them; speak them firmly, speak them proudly, speak them gratefully. I am an American. ...a tradition

Yes, it surprises me how many people are willing to risk this by wanting to kill welfare and social security.

You kill welfare and social security and they will likely kill you.

Social peace is purchased. Welfare and social security are part of the cost of being rich and successful.

That could be. But, I'm imaging a future where skyrocketing lifespans and improved medical technology (along with the baby-boomer generation) put an ever-increasing strain on the program. As such, I can easily foresee a future where the government makes the decision to tell those who don't really need SS for their retirement, essentially "Sorry, but you have too much money - we need these fund for those who don't."

That is to say, I see a SS down the road, when I'm that age that opts out of paying some (those who don't "need" it). Either that, or they'll jack up the retirement age to an absurd one, and get out of paying me that way. Either way, I'm extremely skeptical that I'll see the benefits I would now if I were retiring, given my projected income and lifestyle.

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"Government big enough to supply everything you need is big enough to take everything you have... The course of history shows that as a government grows, liberty decreases."

-Thomas Jefferson

Viola, Mrs. M. I don't see this happening anytime soon, but rather when I've been paying into the system for 30 years or so. This is exactly what I'm envisioning as the "fix".

And, I'm not really saying this with much bitterness. I view my SS contributions the way I view any other "tax-tortion" like city stickers, car registration, etc - it's just an annoyance of life that provides me no direct benefit (though indirect ones are, of course, arguable). When I speak of planning never to benefit from SS, I'm not complaining, but stating it as a matter of fact.

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"Government big enough to supply everything you need is big enough to take everything you have... The course of history shows that as a government grows, liberty decreases."

-Thomas Jefferson

This is already the case (at least in Canada). Social security is part of your taxible income. If your income is sufficiently high enough, you will pay most of the Social security income away as income tax. This is usually called 'clawback'.

Nothing wrong with this. It is the easiest way to apply a 'means test' to recipients without any forms or bureaucracy. Just let the tax system take care of it.

Right. If you expect to have sufficient income of your own when you retire, you wouldn't really get your social security income anyways as it would be taxed away under the income tax laws. I see nothing wrong with that at all.

My mother receives her 'old-age pension' and it is 100% taxed away under income tax (since she has an income above $75k without it).

But she's still entitled to receive the cheque.

I was having the "means testing" argument with my brother a little while ago, he was insisting that means testing could save money, I told him means testing was political suicide that would save nothing.
At this point my retired mother walked in,comfortably retired I might add (it's important to the story), my brother seeing the opportunity to destroy my argument asks my mother if everyone should get Social Security or only the people who need it. She replies that only the people who need it should get it,(then sensing victory) he then asks if people like her should get it, of course she says, she and my father need it (this conversation is taking place in their large waterfront condo) because that's the money they use to go out to dinner at nice restaurants. After all this my brother conceded that while the idea of means testing at first glance looked like it could save money, Social Security made up too large a percentage of most retirees income to cut it without serious repercussions.

After medicare they get $800 a month, they probably spend a couple of thousand a week, but that $800 a month is still something like 10% of their disposable income, and they would feel a 10% reduction in income, especially since it would hit their discretionary spending, their condo fees, and basic expenses would stay the same, but that $800 represents a large share of their fun money, and cutting it would impact their lifestyle.
Means testing does another thing to Social Security, it turns it into welfare, it changes it into a mark of shame, an insult to the people who get it.
Because if it's means tested that means they get it because they are poor, now they get it because they are over a certain age, and that's a huge difference, and the party that puts that through is gone from the stage for decades to come.

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“ The subjects of every state ought to contribute towards the support of the government, as nearly as possible, in proportion to their respective abilities; that is, in proportion to the revenue which they respectively enjoy under the protection of the state.”

Adam Smith , The Wealth of Nations 1776

"We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics"
FDR's second Inaugural Address

I've made that same type of statement regarding welfare and SS in other threads and received what I consider ignorant answers; many people simply don't comprehend how civil order is maintained through taxation without the expense of private armies.

How about that very same Social Security Trustees Report? Per WR's link in post #13:

- Figure II.D6 shows that SS will become a drain on Federal coffers starting in 2018.

- Even if the tooth fairy pays back the imaginary SS trust fund bonds, the Figure II.D2 shows that in 2042, we'll need to increase payroll taxes by 5% of gross to start with in order to make scheduled payments.

- Or there's my favorite quote, which doesn't have much bearing for me, but should be a real eye-opener for anyone with young children or grand-children: "Through the end of 2078, the combined funds have a present-value unfunded obligation of $3.7 trillion." (emphasis added)

- And for those who think the ship will eventually right itself after capsizing under the weight of the baby-boomers, "extending the horizon beyond 75 years continues to increase the unfunded obligation".

- And if one does a little digging, Figure VI.E1 shows better/worse scenarios, and it's 90% probably that the tooth fairy will go broke not later than 2055, or for those of us in the real world, 90% probable that we'll start hemorraging cash sometime before 2019. (Or given political standard operating procedures, selling our great-Great-grandchildren into slavery, since the greats are already sold.)


I can't call you a liar because nobody has bothered to define "impending", but implying that that report says everything is fine and dandy is certainly misleading at best.

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Today's forecast: Government corruption.

Tomorrow's forecast: 100% chance of more 'politics as usual'

Maybe it's finally time to vote Libertarian

I volunteer to give up what Ive paid in to those who need it, if we will end the program. I bet I could find others to do the same. Maybe Ill start a useless petition.

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http://www.fairtax.org

Elminate all taxes on income and replace with a national sales tax.

It's not just the little guy that gets hurt. My observations from Black Thursday 1986 through the .com collapse showed more middle and lower upper class being harmed than anyone else. They depended on the equity markets for their retirements, generally through funds and brokers, and ignored the historical returns. My personal doctor retired in 1985 at age 60, was on an around the world cruise when he heard about Black Thursday and went back into practice immediately following his return. I can't count the number of friends managed retirement funds which were crumpled by the .com collapse and are still under water yet I read posts of people in their 20s who state their managed equity investments are going to be worth X 30-40 years from now. To me, that sounds like a serious dose of hopeless naiveté.

No it does not.

I see no reason to bother addressing your post since you apparently are going to play games and make stuff up.

Take one of my high school students - born into single-parent households with a parent who had not completed high school and was working 2 jobs. My student turned 16 and was told to work nigh shifts at Wal-Mart to help support the family (oldes son, several siblings at home). Due to a lack of sleep, his grades were suffering and did not have a favorable prospect for graduation. He was stuck in a school (no busing, remember), with little support, rampant drug use, violence, and crime. Dropping out looked like a reasonable outcome - at least that way he could get some sleep after working his overnight shifts (for minimum wage or near to it).

Tell me, where did this kid go wrong?

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When they come a wull staun ma groon
Staun ma groon al nae be afraid
Thoughts awe hame tak awa ma fear
Sweat an bluid hide ma veil awe tears

When he is 18 we can address his choices. Right now its about where his parents went wrong, and thats pretty obvious. Children are not responsible for their own life. Now, if when he is 18, he does not work hard and take advantage of the opportunities all around, then that will be where he went wrong.

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http://www.fairtax.org

Elminate all taxes on income and replace with a national sales tax.

I'd be curious as to what opportunities there are for an uneducated 18-year old to take advantage of with siblings still at home depending on his paycheck for subsistence. Higher education is out due to poor grades and there wouldn't be any income for the family with him attending school if he could go. What are those opportunities that are all around him in what sounds like an inner-city circumstance? Where are the opportunities for the single parent who didn't finish high school and how will she/he fill a personal retirement account with nothing left over from basic survival?

The "opportunities all around?"


Have you ever been poor? Ever been to a really poor neighborhood?

Hell, ever been followed in a store because you look poor and non-white?

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When they come a wull staun ma groon
Staun ma groon al nae be afraid
Thoughts awe hame tak awa ma fear
Sweat an bluid hide ma veil awe tears