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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 10-16-2007
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It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

Quote:
Smile -- You're on Social Security!

By Dana Milbank
Tuesday, October 16, 2007; A02



When it comes to the nation's finances, Kathleen Casey-Kirschling is Public Enemy No. 1.

Her offense: being born.

Specifically, being born on Jan. 1, 1946, just a tick after midnight. That made her the first member of the 80 million-strong baby-boom generation, which, starting next year, will begin to bankrupt the nation by crashing the Medicare and Social Security systems. To tout this happy "milestone," the Social Security Administration called a news conference yesterday and invited cameras to film Casey-Kirschling signing up for benefits....

No kidding. As the boomers retire, Social Security will go into the red in 2017 and become insolvent 24 years later, according to the system's trustees. Medicare, meanwhile, starts bleeding in 2013 and goes under in 2019....

Yes, let's. It's not her fault that, ever since a writer for Money magazine found her on the eve of her 40th birthday in 1985, she has been a symbol of her generation. If anything, the ones to blame for the entitlement problems are the boomer presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, and all the boomers in Congress who have put off the painful changes everybody knows will be needed....
Smile -- You're on Social Security!

It's high time our politicians actually addressed the Social Security and Medicare situation rather than putting their heads in the sand. The insolvency of Social Security is quickly approaching. I hope all have personal plans for retirement. Benefits are already inadequate. Imagine what it will be like in ten years.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

I agree. I wish Bush had followed through and made this a priority. According to the latest trustee report, costs will exceed revenue in 2017, and the "trust fund" will be exhausted in 2041. One silver lining is that this has improved a bit due to the impressive GDP growth of the last 5 years.

http://www.treas.gov/offices/economi...eport-2007.pdf

The real question is, how do we fix it? The AARP, etc, will not allow any changes. The first step however, is to stop spending the excess revenue, and convert it to high yield investment. The second step is to invest all reciepts. The third step is to eliminate benefits for anyone who doesnt need it, and to reduce benefits to only what is needed. The final step is to eliminate the program all together. It is unnecesary, IMO.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
I agree. I wish Bush had followed through and made this a priority. According to the latest trustee report, costs will exceed revenue in 2017, and the "trust fund" will be exhausted in 2041. One silver lining is that this has improved a bit due to the impressive GDP growth of the last 5 years.

http://www.treas.gov/offices/economi...eport-2007.pdf

The real question is, how do we fix it? The AARP, etc, will not allow any changes. The first step however, is to stop spending the excess revenue, and convert it to high yield investment. The second step is to invest all reciepts. The third step is to eliminate benefits for anyone who doesnt need it, and to reduce benefits to only what is needed. The final step is to eliminate the program all together. It is unnecesary, IMO.
Bottom line, I agree that ultimately it needs to be eliminated. It is past its prime as being a useful entitlement - useful in the sense that it is an income that can support a retiree. It is barely that now. In just a few years, it will not even be a minimum retiree income. The practice of Treasury bond IOUs would be a first baby step in the right direction. But I don't see any first steps coming soon.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by Si modo View Post
Bottom line, I agree that ultimately it needs to be eliminated. It is past its prime as being a useful entitlement - useful in the sense that it is an income that can support a retiree. It is barely that now. In just a few years, it will not even be a minimum retiree income. The practice of Treasury bond IOUs would be a first baby step in the right direction. But I don't see any first steps coming soon.
The main issue is that retirees are responsible for their own retirement, not the govt.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by Si modo
The insolvency of Social Security is quickly approaching.
Please cite some credible source/evidence of this assertion. To my knowledge, this is completely false and nothing more than an RNC talking point or partisan propaganda, unsupported by actual facts.

Social Security is fully funded at least until the mid 2040's as it stands right now.

Medicare on the other hand, does have a huge impending funding crunch that is likely to hit in the medium term.

Without actually acknowledging the facts of the matter, serious discussion upon this topic is likely to be a waste of time.

Last edited by O'Sullivan Bere; 10-16-2007 at 11:04 PM.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

Well, there goes social security, or at least the last generation to benefit from such. By 2040, huh? Sounds about just about the time my generation will start retiring. Of course I'm young enough to be prepared by then, but it certainly wont be through either a pension or social security.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by White Rabbit View Post
Please cite some credible source/evidence of this assertion. To my knowledge, this is completely false and nothing more than an RNC talking point or partisan propaganda, unsupported by actual facts.

Social Security is fully funded at least until the mid 2040's as it stands right now.

Medicare on the other hand, does have a huge impending funding crunch that is likely to hit in the medium term.

Without actually acknowledging the facts of the matter, serious discussion upon this topic is likely to be a waste of time (a partisan circle-jerk is more like it - indeed - jviehe has already arrived!).
Not much partisan about it with respect to the Executive Branch. The last administration and this one recognise the problem.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

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Originally Posted by Si modo View Post
Not much partisan about it with respect to the Executive Branch. The last administration and this one recognise the problem.
It is a longstanding Republican party policy to dismantle/kill/eliminate Social Security. Ergo, Republicans saying that Social Security is a problem is pure partisanship. It does not match up with reality.

I repeat. Please cite a credible source for the assertion that Social Security is in some dire financial position (or is projected to be so in any near-medium term).

CBO is a good source for data on this topic.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by White Rabbit View Post
Please cite some credible source/evidence of this assertion. To my knowledge, this is completely false and nothing more than an RNC talking point or partisan propaganda, unsupported by actual facts.

Social Security is fully funded at least until the mid 2040's as it stands right now.

Medicare on the other hand, does have a huge impending funding crunch that is likely to hit in the medium term.

Without actually acknowledging the facts of the matter, serious discussion upon this topic is likely to be a waste of time (a partisan circle-jerk is more like it - indeed - jviehe has already arrived!).
Social Security will only to be able to run as is until 2017. In 2017 it will be paying out more money that it is taking in.

Trustees report: Social Security, Medicare to run out sooner - May. 3, 2006

Quote:
come 2017 Social Security will no longer be taking in enough payroll tax to pay all promised benefits and will need to tap the special-issue bonds that make up its trust fund.
Basically Social Security will have to run on IOUs from the Federal Government. The Federal Government will then have to....

Quote:
In order to make good on repaying those bonds, the federal government will have to borrow more money, raise taxes, cut spending elsewhere or reduce benefits.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by White Rabbit View Post
It is a longstanding Republican party policy to dismantle/kill/eliminate Social Security. Ergo, Republicans saying that Social Security is a problem is pure partisanship. It does not match up with reality.

I repeat. Please cite a credible source for the assertion that Social Security is in some dire financial position (or is projected to be so in any near-medium term).

CBO is a good source for data on this topic.
Huh? Jviehe provided a US Treasury report. It is explicitely stated on page ten for starters.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

I truly hesitate to say that Social Security should be eliminated. I know far too many people that are self-employed and are doing nothing to prepare for their retirement because it's 30 years down the road for them. I know some people that are employed at jobs paying them $10-12/hr. and if Social Security was eliminated, they would just spend the extra money instead of investing it. I'm all for personal responsibility but this is a case where reality doesn't set in for many folks until it's really too late to do anything about it so Social Security is often all they can depend on. Another big problem is that when Babyboomers began working, many found good jobs with retirement packages and they stayed with those jobs 30 years. Today, it's hard to become vested in a company with a decent retirement because it's cheaper for them to push someone out after 10 years than it is to pay them later.
So, until someone can come up with a surefire plan that will force people to build a retirement, I'm for leaving Social Security where it is. Otherwise, the government will end up taking care of a lot of homeless retirees.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrs. M View Post
I truly hesitate to say that Social Security should be eliminated. I know far too many people that are self-employed and are doing nothing to prepare for their retirement because it's 30 years down the road for them. I know some people that are employed at jobs paying them $10-12/hr. and if Social Security was eliminated, they would just spend the extra money instead of investing it. I'm all for personal responsibility but this is a case where reality doesn't set in for many folks until it's really too late to do anything about it so Social Security is often all they can depend on. Another big problem is that when Babyboomers began working, many found good jobs with retirement packages and they stayed with those jobs 30 years. Today, it's hard to become vested in a company with a decent retirement because it's cheaper for them to push someone out after 10 years than it is to pay them later.
So, until someone can come up with a surefire plan that will force people to build a retirement, I'm for leaving Social Security where it is. Otherwise, the government will end up taking care of a lot of homeless retirees.
But inaction will not solve any problems. At least, there needs to be reform. Not much will be left because of the IOUs over the decades. That SS fund was like money burning in the pocket of the last several administrations.
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I am an American. That's the way most of us put it, just matter of factly. They are plain words, those four: you could write them on your thumbnail, or sweep them clear across this bright autumn sky. But remember too, that they are more than just words. They are a way of life. So whenever you speak them; speak them firmly, speak them proudly, speak them gratefully. I am an American. ...a tradition
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

Here's a good source: OASDI - they are the offical Social Security trustees.

D. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FINANCIAL STATUS

Please refer to Tables IID1 and IID4 for key information.

There you will see the data projections showing that (under the intermediate projections) SS is fully funded until the middle of the 2040's.

It is to be noted that, historically speaking over the last 20 years, the actual SS Fund has tracked to match the "low end" projections (not the intermediate projections that are normally used) and if this projection continues, SS would be fully funded, essentially forever.

As other experts have noted, a general rise of 2% in US gross taxes between now and 2040 will take care of social security funding permanently (using the standard intermediate projections).

Ergo, there is no substantive Social Security funding crisis.

There is however a very large and substantial Medicare funding crisis with the Boomer retirements. Many poeple like to conflate these two things together in order to make partisan arguments, but the topics are entirely distinct.

And yes, I get a bit wonky on social security issues - go figure - it is a very complex issue.

Last edited by White Rabbit; 10-16-2007 at 10:14 AM.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

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Originally Posted by Si modo View Post
Smile -- You're on Social Security!

It's high time our politicians actually addressed the Social Security and Medicare situation rather than putting their heads in the sand. The insolvency of Social Security is quickly approaching. I hope all have personal plans for retirement. Benefits are already inadequate. Imagine what it will be like in ten years.
I personally contribute about 5% of my salary to a 401K, which is then matched on a graduated scale by my company. A year or two ago, they had an info seminar on retirement saving at my company, because they had just introduced some sort of pre-tax Roth plan that you could also contribute to, in addition to or instead of 401K. As I recall, the benefit was that you paid taxes up front but could withdraw without penalty, unlike 401K. I opted to stick with it because I have no intention to touch that money.

The thing that amazed me was that I was the only person below the age of 40 at this seminar. I think that a significant amount of people in their 20's and perhaps 30's don't bother with this at all. That's amazing to me. I never expect to see a single penny of the money that I contribute to social security (I'm 27), so not planning throughout life for retirement seems like a good recipe to work until you die.
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Old 10-16-2007
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Re: It's Official - Babyboomers Start Collecting Social Security

This is a "crisis" that doesn't happen for 33 years.
Lift the cap on contributions, and the "crisis" goes away.
As far as cutting benefits goes, the largest voting block, the baby boomers, are starting to collect, while they were contributing, they paid in extra to have those special bonds to pay for their benefits until 2040, so I don't see where stripping a huge voting block of benefits they have already paid for is a politically viable solution.
Taxes in the US are far too low, especially on the upper class, so there is plenty of revenue available there, and as far as cutting expenses, we can safely reduce military spending by 80% according to Bush's advisor.
So there's a huge savings available there, both are fairly easy politically compared to cutting benefits.
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