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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
daddio daddio is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
No I run a business....and anyone who does - knows tragically well that this economy is NOT growing despite massaged GDP data that everyone (well people who know jack) knows contains data that is both unreliable and favorable to false positives.



congradulations on your initiative to blaze your own small business path !

however as you should know, it is not required that every business grow for the overall economy to grow. in any given month you have winners and losers.

certainly GDP is subject to contrivance, estimation and whathaveyou, but its generally consistant. while the rules may change over time they do not change wildly one month to the next to mask this hiccup or that.
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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Pogo Pogo is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by Marcus1124 View Post
Stupid question, demonstrating basic ignorance of economics. The reason the rest of the world is so eager to pour money into our economy by lending it to us on the open capital markets is the best evidence there could be of their view that investment opportunities in their own countries are insufficient to put all that capital to work, so they turn their eyes (and their money) to the greatest place in the world to invest.
Or, they're merely trying to keep us afloat so as to protect their own economies from being sucked down.

Meanwhile, the world slowly but surely is shifting away from using the dollar as the exclusive international reserve currency. I'd say the writing's on the wall.
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
Marcus1124 Marcus1124 is online now
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Pogo
Or, they're merely trying to keep us afloat so as to protect their own economies from being sucked down.
How can an illusion hold up something else?

Quote:
Pogo
Meanwhile, the world slowly but surely is shifting away from using the dollar as the exclusive international reserve currency. I'd say the writing's on the wall.
This too comes in cycles (rather lengthy ones), it is just that this is the first time in a very long time that the dollar has had a cyclical decline that there has been another currency of sufficiency to be an alternative reserve currency.

My guess is that the dollar will bottom out in the next year or two and will once again rebound over the next 3-10 years, all the while, our economy will continue to outperform the rest of the developed world as it has for the better part of the last 30 years.
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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iamwhatiseem iamwhatiseem is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by Imperator View Post
right now, no, BUT as jveihe said , it will take 6 months to really soak the numbers....just in time for the election too...its karma I guess.

the real estate market is a 6 month lag, leash tug to collar lead time so we'll see what happens in October, we very well could crater...Or...it could be a smoother landing...


re: recession, if we are not in one now we will be...

On the bright side help is coming, Obama says we need another Stimulus package and hes all for it......is this guy like totally lost or what?

Dude.....this will be the worst Worst June in DOW's history since 1960

That's 48 years..... I think it is safe for all of us to say that the economy is not good. Anyone else - well their nuts.
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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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iamwhatiseem iamwhatiseem is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by daddio View Post
congradulations on your initiative to blaze your own small business path !

however as you should know, it is not required that every business grow for the overall economy to grow. in any given month you have winners and losers.

certainly GDP is subject to contrivance, estimation and whathaveyou, but its generally consistant. while the rules may change over time they do not change wildly one month to the next to mask this hiccup or that.
small business??...hardly.

as for the rest of your post...well, not to be a smart-ass, but thanks for the "Mister Obvious" points there.
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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Oh...and General Motors is having it's worst sales in 34 years....
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
Marcus1124 Marcus1124 is online now
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
iamwhatiseem
Oh...and General Motors is having it's worst sales in 34 years....
General Motors has been hemoraging money for well over a decade, were times horrible that whole time, or is GM (like most of the other U.S. automakers) just been badly run, and run into the ground?
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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jviehe jviehe is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
Dude.....this will be the worst Worst June in DOW's history since 1960

That's 48 years..... I think it is safe for all of us to say that the economy is not good. Anyone else - well their nuts.
Come on, the worst one month in 40 years is really something to worry about? Its up 4000 points in the last decade.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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jviehe jviehe is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by Marcus1124 View Post
General Motors has been hemoraging money for well over a decade, were times horrible that whole time, or is GM (like most of the other U.S. automakers) just been badly run, and run into the ground?
Auto sales are pretty stable, so Id say they are doing something wrong, rather than being a victim of the economy.
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
daddio daddio is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
small business??...hardly.

as for the rest of your post...well, not to be a smart-ass, but thanks for the "Mister Obvious" points there.




OK Mr Gates, not small. I thought I'd present the obvious as you seem to have forgotten it.
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
Auto sales are pretty stable, so Id say they are doing something wrong, rather than being a victim of the economy.
Is it possible that they're doing something wrong AND they're victims of the economy? GM and Ford have relied heavily on their SUV sales, which I've long suspected was a mistake on their part - but, hey, you can't blame them, they were just giving buyers what they wanted. But now with the quick jump in gas prices, SUVs are sitting on the lots, and GM has little to offer in fuel-efficient vehicles... or less than the competition, anyway.

Just my 2 cents - I admitedly don't know much about this stuff.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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iamwhatiseem iamwhatiseem is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
Auto sales are pretty stable, so Id say they are doing something wrong, rather than being a victim of the economy.
Where are you getting your information???
U.S. auto sales are at their worst sales YTD in 15 years...geesh.
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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iamwhatiseem iamwhatiseem is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
Come on, the worst one month in 40 years is really something to worry about? Its up 4000 points in the last decade.
I don't know if you are googling between post or what...
jviehe - what we are experiencing this year is the RESULT of heavily overstated stock numbers, false double booking, false sales reporting, overstated bottom-lines, overstated futures....etc etc etc
As I stated 10 times now - Bear Sterns was rated 'AA' investment portfoilo THE DAY THE COMPANY COLLAPSED.
The market has been insanely over-bloated for years.
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
TSGracchus TSGracchus is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by Marcus1124 View Post
How can an illusion hold up something else?
Not impossible, but the question is whether the investors are private individuals abroad in large numbers, or foreign governments. I had understood it to be foreign governments, and the following will be predicated on that.

A healthy, stable economy is one in which wages are high enough that workers can buy the bulk of the products produced. Failing this, consumer buying power will be inadequate to purchase the goods and services offered, profits decline, businesses fail, and the economy goes into recession. However, there are some ways to temporarily shore up consumer demand even if real wages are inadequate. One way to do this is by the extension of easy credit to consumers, which allows them to make purchases that they can't really afford to make, and as long as they are able to keep up the payments on the loans, the economy will hum along. This was done in the 1920s, and it is also being done today. However, it depends on keeping interest rates low.

The way things are being done now can be illustrated with an oversimplified example using only China and the U.S. (although actually it includes more than those two countries of course).

China wants to attract industrial investment so as to enable the development of its economy. In order to do this, it cracks down on workers' rights so as to keep Chinese industrial wages very, very low. Industry takes advantage of this, and of "free-trade" agreements which encourage investment in China, and builds factories in China employing low-wage Chinese labor, thus producing goods at substantial cost savings. The workers in China are not able to buy the goods produced (because they are so badly underpaid), so the plan from the beginning has been to market the goods in the U.S., where people are paid more.

However, the loss of all the good industrial jobs has affected the job market in the U.S., driving median real wages down. As a result, the U.S. consumers are not able to absorb the goods produced in this way (even at the lower prices allowed by the cost savings) without borrowing. China wishes to keep this situation going as long as possible, so as to reap the greatest benefit in terms of industrialization and development before it comes crashing down, and so is willing to float loans to the U.S. to keep American interest rates down and the market able to support the Chinese factories.

At some point, however, it will become obvious that the system is not sustainable any longer, and China will withdraw her support.
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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jviehe jviehe is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
Where are you getting your information???
U.S. auto sales are at their worst sales YTD in 15 years...geesh.
I was mistaken.
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