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  #46 (permalink)  
Old 06-27-2008
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcus1124 View Post
While China's growth is impressive, it is still a relatively small economy, with insufficient ability to abosorb the types of foreign capital that sloshes around in the world equity markets. China itself can't find useful things to do domestically with all of its capital, which is why even China, with its excellent growth rate (although I suspect that will slow down appreciably over the next 5-10 years) buys U.S. Treasuries. Also, most players on the world financial market stage (including sovereign funds) know that the U.S. is still the safest long-term bet.
Relatively small economy?

It's the second largest in the world and growing rapidly. How the hell does that make it "relatively small?"



Investment in US Government securities by foreign nations is very likely to slow in the near future as inflation concerns increase and the real estate market flounders. If these conditions precipitate a withdrawal of that investment, it's going to be a bad ride for the US.
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old 06-27-2008
Marcus1124 Marcus1124 is online now
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Pramjockey
Relatively small economy?

It's the second largest in the world and growing rapidly. How the hell does that make it "relatively small?"
Actually, it is the third or fourth largest economy, but the overwhelming majority of its economy still goes to the basic sustenance of its people, unlike the countries with larger GDP overall (and the many, many countries with higher disposable income). China's economy (without even taking into account the disparity in the % of GDP which goes to meet the basic needs of the population) is only abou 1/3 the size of the U.S. economy. There simply isn't enough capacity for a country that poor (and yes, China is be any objective measure still a relatively poor country) to absorb the types of capital that exist on the world markets, furthermore, history shows that while developing countries can often have stellar growth rates for a time, it becomes increasingly difficult for them to maintain those growth rates over time. What makes it easy for them to do this initially is the fact that they are treading on a well beaten path. They are playing catch-up. Their growth is not the result of advancements and innovations of their own, but rather then incorporation and benefit of the advancement and innovations of other, wealthier, far more developed nations.

Consider this. If China's economy collpased, it would have very little impact on ours (in fact ours may even benefit marginally from the decreased commodity price pressures from China's current demand as well as the lower import prices), whereas if the U.S. economy cratered, it would be equally...if not more devestating to the Chinese economy.
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  #48 (permalink)  
Old 06-27-2008
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
Your a good poster jv...but I am afraid your mistaken on more than just this.

Pogo is dead on, the "talking head" eco-gurus hired by MSM are so inaccurate it leaves little doubt they are at least encouraged to spin the data to make things appear well...call me crazy but it might have something to do with MSM all being owned by giant corporations that depend on the very consumers watching these guys to stay way from maybe putting a little money away instead of buying their products.

Every single economic indicator, except the GDP (surprise, surprise) points to a baaad ass economy, many are at record lows, many at decade(s) lows.

Face it - this sucks....just ask the RECORD number of laid off people.

You can quote me later, I said months ago the DOW would dip into the 11000 number by mid-summer...I still maintain it will dip into the 10000 by the end of August....and I am sure the GDP will still be up
And so what? Stuff goes up and down. Why should we care? I dont understand how it benefits the country to rag on the economy all the time, especially when most everyone is doing fine.
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  #49 (permalink)  
Old 06-27-2008
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcus1124 View Post
Actually, it is the third or fourth largest economy, but the overwhelming majority of its economy still goes to the basic sustenance of its people, unlike the countries with larger GDP overall (and the many, many countries with higher disposable income). China's economy (without even taking into account the disparity in the % of GDP which goes to meet the basic needs of the population) is only abou 1/3 the size of the U.S. economy. There simply isn't enough capacity for a country that poor (and yes, China is be any objective measure still a relatively poor country) to absorb the types of capital that exist on the world markets, furthermore, history shows that while developing countries can often have stellar growth rates for a time, it becomes increasingly difficult for them to maintain those growth rates over time. What makes it easy for them to do this initially is the fact that they are treading on a well beaten path. They are playing catch-up. Their growth is not the result of advancements and innovations of their own, but rather then incorporation and benefit of the advancement and innovations of other, wealthier, far more developed nations.

Consider this. If China's economy collpased, it would have very little impact on ours (in fact ours may even benefit marginally from the decreased commodity price pressures from China's current demand as well as the lower import prices), whereas if the U.S. economy cratered, it would be equally...if not more devestating to the Chinese economy.
Damn, I misread my chart. 4th it is. Consider me corrected.

However, if China collapsed, the impact on the US economy would be huge (and that of the rest of the world). The loss of manufacturing capacity alone would be devastating. Never mind that China holds ~1/5 of the US foreign debt.

http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
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  #50 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2008
Georgerufus Georgerufus is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

China probably has another 12 years before it plateaus. Face it china WILL grow larger.

USA on the other hand set to suffer most out of developed nations.. so sad as people stop being human and become faceless slaves. So much life will be lost, a real shame. Especially watching America's youth, clinging to the life their parents had and to a world that once was. Very sad.
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  #51 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2008
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Yeah, sure.
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  #52 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2008
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
And so what? Stuff goes up and down. Why should we care? I dont understand how it benefits the country to rag on the economy all the time, especially when most everyone is doing fine.
Ok - you now have me convinced that you are just enjoying the rise from these posts of yours...the last comment "most everyone is doing fine" - pretty much clenched it.


Glad you are enjoying yourself.
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  #53 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2008
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
And neither am I, I moved my investments last fall...right now I am only down $183.
However would you not agree that at least 90% of 401k owners leave it up to the fund managers to "manage" their money?
Of my friends who didn't listen to me, listened instead to the media heads who said "stay for the long haul" - one is now down $4000, one is down $2300 and the other down $11,000!!
You and I, rare breeds that we are, moved our funds and avoided the losses we could see coming, when I enter back in late August, when I believe the market will bottom out around 10,000, and when the markets climb back up - I (probably like you) I will actually GAIN from this mess...
and there ya go, you 2 are talking around each other , you are both right, as I said earlier and alex mentioned, the lag is 6 months, decisions made now, or 6 months ago are now taking effect, there is a tiny bit of light regards the housing situation, its bottoming, all be it do to low int. rates which have other effects and bailouts etc. and because, the folks with real equity step up, like us and take advantage of down turns, the net effect of the gov. using our money to make some of this go away, does have a net positive for those who know how to use it, if my net tax goes up 300 a month, I am betting on the come in effect as I will get it back down the road. I bailed on my US based 401 funds 18 moths ago, I recovered from 2000 and now have locked in profit almost exactly on Alex’s points, diversity.

Real estate men, real estate, they don't make more land and in the next month I am closing on 2 piece of shit properties in down town san Jose that will in 5-8 years be the new city rejuvenation project area targeted, that’s how you make double or triple digit gains in this economy.


And on that note it is official, 10.2% loss for the month of June as compared to the last harshest month back in 29 (9 and change), what does it really mean? Losing 10% of 12000 is infinitely better than losing 10% of 800...We'll see, I always thought a correction was in the offing, due to profligate spending, the idiotically low interest rates etc....
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  #54 (permalink)  
Old 06-28-2008
Alex Alex is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by Georgerufus View Post
China probably has another 12 years before it plateaus. Face it china WILL grow larger.

USA on the other hand set to suffer most out of developed nations.. so sad as people stop being human and become faceless slaves. So much life will be lost, a real shame. Especially watching America's youth, clinging to the life their parents had and to a world that once was. Very sad.
You'd better up the meds, you sound depressed....
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  #55 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2008
Georgerufus Georgerufus is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by Alex View Post
You'd better up the meds, you sound depressed....
Why ? I'm not the one who lives in a second world country.
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  #56 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2008
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
Ok - you now have me convinced that you are just enjoying the rise from these posts of yours...the last comment "most everyone is doing fine" - pretty much clenched it.


Glad you are enjoying yourself.
So, you have nothing else to add then?
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  #57 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2008
Alex Alex is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by Georgerufus View Post
Why ? I'm not the one who lives in a second world country.
My state, California, has an economy that is more than twice the size of your entire country.

Australia - 908,826 Million USD
California - 1,812,968 Million USD
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Last edited by O'Sullivan Bere; 06-30-2008 at 10:47 AM.
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  #58 (permalink)  
Old 06-29-2008
Georgerufus Georgerufus is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by Alex View Post
My state, California, has an economy that is more than twice the size of your entire country.

Australia - 908,826 Million USD
California - 1,812,968 Million USD
Yet we manage to provide all our citizens with first world standard or living, health care, education, a guaranteed living wage, 4 weeks annual leave, unfair dismissal laws... an almost absence of crime such that our police force has become the happy brigade.

YOU on the other hand have a third of the country as working poor. Living a standard of living well below anything anyone in working Australia lives. Three times the Aussie population in the USA is much poorer than 20 million Australians.

Face it USA is becoming second world with a handful of super rich and their cronies/servants.

You know, our welfare used to pay as much as a full week on minimum wage work about $263 per week.

Last edited by O'Sullivan Bere; 06-30-2008 at 10:47 AM.
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  #59 (permalink)  
Old 06-30-2008
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Originally Posted by Georgerufus View Post
Yet we manage to provide all our citizens with first world standard or living, health care, education, a guaranteed living wage, 4 weeks annual leave, unfair dismissal laws... an almost absence of crime such that our police force has become the happy brigade.

YOU on the other hand have a third of the country as working poor. Living a standard of living well below anything anyone in working Australia lives. Three times the Aussie population in the USA is much poorer than 20 million Australians.

Face it USA is becoming second world with a handful of super rich and their cronies/servants.

You know, our welfare used to pay as much as a full week on minimum wage work about $263 per week.
How much of the avg working austrialians work product is taken by the govt to provide this standard of living?
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  #60 (permalink)  
Old 06-30-2008
Georgerufus Georgerufus is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

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Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
How much of the avg working austrialians work product is taken by the govt to provide this standard of living?
$1 – $6,000


Nil

$6,001 – $30,000


15c for each $1 over $6,000

$30,001 – $75,000


$3,600 plus 30c for each $1 over $30,000

$75,001 – $150,000


$17,100 plus 40c for each $1 over $75,000

$150,001 and over


$47,100 plus 45c for each $1 over $150,000


ALSO:

It is hard to find a job paying less than $17 per hour which is about $33,000 per year with a standard 37.5 hour work week.
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