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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
jviehe's Avatar
jviehe jviehe is offline
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Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

BEA: News Release: Gross Domestic Product and Corporate Profits

Quote:
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the first quarter of 2008 (that
is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to final estimates released by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 0.6 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for
the preliminary estimates issued last month. In the preliminary estimates, the increase in real GDP was
0.9 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for services, exports of goods and services, and federal
government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment
and PCE for durable goods.

Looks ok to me. Bring on the flood of negative indicators. Stagnant real wage growth is my favorite.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
Georgerufus Georgerufus is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Warren buffet says it in recession. You are in denial so are a lot of Americans so it is alright.

USA is taking the biggest slip in standard of living due to globalisation. Not like the lies they told everyone in text books.

Now it is a case that globalisation leads to declining living standards in the west now that fact. Whereas before they argued it would increase them.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
daddio daddio is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Originally Posted by Georgerufus View Post
Warren buffet says it in recession. You are in denial so are a lot of Americans so it is alright.

USA is taking the biggest slip in standard of living due to globalisation. Not like the lies they told everyone in text books.

Now it is a case that globalisation leads to declining living standards in the west now that fact. Whereas before they argued it would increase them.


from Warren's lips to God's ear...

Greenspan said the same thing then at least had the balls to admit he was wrong.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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jviehe jviehe is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Originally Posted by Georgerufus View Post
Warren buffet says it in recession. You are in denial so are a lot of Americans so it is alright.

USA is taking the biggest slip in standard of living due to globalisation. Not like the lies they told everyone in text books.

Now it is a case that globalisation leads to declining living standards in the west now that fact. Whereas before they argued it would increase them.
What expertise does he have exactly?
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
Alex Alex is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Liberals seem to have a real knack for re-defining words when it suits them. Ask any of them if we are in a recession and they'll all say YES!!!! YES!! YES!!! yet, the definition of a recession is two conseq. qtrs of negative growth - we haven't even had ONE!! Ist qtr was UP 1%.

US economy logs better but still subpar growth: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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jviehe jviehe is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex View Post
Liberals seem to have a real knack for re-defining words when it suits them. Ask any of them if we are in a recession and they'll all say YES!!!! YES!! YES!!! yet, the definition of a recession is two conseq. qtrs of negative growth - we haven't even had ONE!! Ist qtr was UP 1%.

US economy logs better but still subpar growth: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
In fairness, we could very well be in a recession, but it wont meet the definition until 6 months later.
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
"Back in 1980, the debt of slightly less than a third of U.S. industrial corporations tracked by Standard & Poor's was rated junk. By the late 1980s, more than half were, and now 71% of the pie fits into that category, a record according to a new S&P report."

Wall Street Journal, 1/4/07
Since growth is financed with debt, an intelligent person would be inclined to ask, is more junk debt a net positive?

Obviously, it's only a matter of time before the game goes bust.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
daddio daddio is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
What expertise does he have exactly?


he made a lot of money then he made a lot more when he got "discovered" and could impact more investors via media.
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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iamwhatiseem iamwhatiseem is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Hahahaha.......

Let's see...
The DOW is at it's lowest since September 2006
The sub-prime mess looks to reach at least $500,000,000,000 (thats billion)
Gas prices are at the highest in history, with all indicators pointing to both long-term costs, but that it will be higher yet.
Mortgage defaults is at an all time high
Real Estate values have fallen the fastest in recorded history - near 30% in 12 months.
At current state, a MILLION people will be laid off this year.
In May ALONE - 1,726 companies committed a mass lay-off (over 50 at once) for a total of 176,000 people because of plant closings and/or line shutdowns.
Junes lay-off numbers are expected to be flat with May.

Keep dreaming.
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
daddio daddio is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
Hahahaha.......

Let's see...
The DOW is at it's lowest since September 2006
The sub-prime mess looks to reach at least $500,000,000,000 (thats billion)
Gas prices are at the highest in history, with all indicators pointing to both long-term costs, but that it will be higher yet.
Mortgage defaults is at an all time high
Real Estate values have fallen the fastest in recorded history - near 30% in 12 months.
At current state, a MILLION people will be laid off this year.
In May ALONE - 1,726 companies committed a mass lay-off (over 50 at once) for a total of 176,000 people because of plant closings and/or line shutdowns.
Junes lay-off numbers are expected to be flat with May.

Keep dreaming.


you DO have a knack for seeing half empty !
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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iamwhatiseem iamwhatiseem is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Originally Posted by daddio View Post
you DO have a knack for seeing half empty !
No I run a business....and anyone who does - knows tragically well that this economy is NOT growing despite massaged GDP data that everyone (well people who know jack) knows contains data that is both unreliable and favorable to false positives.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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Imperator Imperator is online now
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
Hahahaha.......

Let's see...
The DOW is at it's lowest since September 2006
The sub-prime mess looks to reach at least $500,000,000,000 (thats billion)
Gas prices are at the highest in history, with all indicators pointing to both long-term costs, but that it will be higher yet.
Mortgage defaults is at an all time high
Real Estate values have fallen the fastest in recorded history - near 30% in 12 months.
At current state, a MILLION people will be laid off this year.
In May ALONE - 1,726 companies committed a mass lay-off (over 50 at once) for a total of 176,000 people because of plant closings and/or line shutdowns.
Junes lay-off numbers are expected to be flat with May.

Keep dreaming.

right now, no, BUT as jveihe said , it will take 6 months to really soak the numbers....just in time for the election too...its karma I guess.

the real estate market is a 6 month lag, leash tug to collar lead time so we'll see what happens in October, we very well could crater...Or...it could be a smoother landing...


re: recession, if we are not in one now we will be...

On the bright side help is coming, Obama says we need another Stimulus package and hes all for it......is this guy like totally lost or what?
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
Marcus1124 Marcus1124 is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Who in the doom and gloom cloud are willing to stake their reputations that Q2 growth won't come in HIGHER than Q1, let alone be in recession?

The broader, longer-term perspective also seems to be missing. Given that there there are people out there who have asserted that any one of the "crisis" (oil, housing market, credit market, etc.) we have been hit with should have been enough to through us into a recession, and here we are almost a year into all of them and we have not entered a recession (at least not as of March), doesn't sugges that there was a near Atlas like strength to the underlying economy?
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
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Pogo Pogo is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcus1124 View Post
Who in the doom and gloom cloud are willing to stake their reputations that Q2 growth won't come in HIGHER than Q1, let alone be in recession?

The broader, longer-term perspective also seems to be missing. Given that there there are people out there who have asserted that any one of the "crisis" (oil, housing market, credit market, etc.) we have been hit with should have been enough to through us into a recession, and here we are almost a year into all of them and we have not entered a recession (at least not as of March), doesn't sugges that there was a near Atlas like strength to the underlying economy?
Question is, how much longer will the world go on lending us money so we can maintain the illusion of economic growth?
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 06-26-2008
Marcus1124 Marcus1124 is offline
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Re: Economy gained another $30 billion in Q1-08

Quote:
Pogo
Question is, how much longer will the world go on lending us money so we can maintain the illusion of economic growth?
Stupid question, demonstrating basic ignorance of economics. The reason the rest of the world is so eager to pour money into our economy by lending it to us on the open capital markets is the best evidence there could be of their view that investment opportunities in their own countries are insufficient to put all that capital to work, so they turn their eyes (and their money) to the greatest place in the world to invest.
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