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Old 07-15-2008
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iamwhatiseem iamwhatiseem is offline
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$100bn lost while we slept.

While we slept world markets fell last night leading to over $100bn in losses in a single day.
I believe today is likely the day the DOW will dip into the 10,000's for the first time since Oct. 2004 as we are pushing into a $3 trillion dollar losses in 6 months alone.

BBC NEWS | Business | US concerns prompt market falls
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Old 07-15-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
While we slept world markets fell last night leading to over $100bn in losses in a single day.
I believe today is likely the day the DOW will dip into the 10,000's for the first time since Oct. 2004 as we are pushing into a $3 trillion dollar losses in 6 months alone.

BBC NEWS | Business | US concerns prompt market falls
How is it a loss? What was invested in the first place? If i bought stock at $5, it rose to $10, and then fell to 8$, did I lose $2? As you mentioned, the DOW will dip to lowest since 2004. That means it was even lower and so the DOW is actually UP.
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Old 07-15-2008
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iamwhatiseem iamwhatiseem is offline
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
How is it a loss? What was invested in the first place? If i bought stock at $5, it rose to $10, and then fell to 8$, did I lose $2? As you mentioned, the DOW will dip to lowest since 2004. That means it was even lower and so the DOW is actually UP.
That's pretty funny.
The DOW was over-inflated - the "up" was merely overstated balance sheets.
When the dust settles...maybe by this time next year...we will all see that not just the DOW, but the entire markets were overstated by $trillions.
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Old 07-15-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
How is it a loss? What was invested in the first place? If i bought stock at $5, it rose to $10, and then fell to 8$, did I lose $2? As you mentioned, the DOW will dip to lowest since 2004. That means it was even lower and so the DOW is actually UP.
Man, seriously. Go get yourself some education on economics and business. You'll end up looking a lot less silly.
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Old 07-15-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

It helps to remember that the Dow and all other exchanges are not tied strictly to reality. There are many stocks that are presently undervalued based solely on sentiment, hunch and fretting. Similarly there are stocks that are overvalued for the same reasons.

Its like this every day.
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Old 07-15-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
How is it a loss? What was invested in the first place? If i bought stock at $5, it rose to $10, and then fell to 8$, did I lose $2? As you mentioned, the DOW will dip to lowest since 2004. That means it was even lower and so the DOW is actually UP.
What you lost was the potential gain of $2.00. Yes, you have more than you started with, but you still have less than the amount of what your stock was once valued...
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Old 07-15-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve View Post
What you lost was the potential gain of $2.00. Yes, you have more than you started with, but you still have less than the amount of what your stock was once valued...
not necessarily true.

You have $2...you invest $1.
Over a period of time that $1 became valued at $4 as you invested in a company that was realizing huge margins. YOu think you are doing great.
But then - you learn that the company was not telling the truth - that the company was playing all kinds of tricks to bolster it's balance sheets - and in the end your dollar is now worth $.75.

You not only lost the quarter, but you lost much more than that since the original $1 was worth more than today's dollar - so your loss is actually staggering.
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Old 07-15-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
not necessarily true.

You have $2...you invest $1.
Over a period of time that $1 became valued at $4 as you invested in a company that was realizing huge margins. YOu think you are doing great.
But then - you learn that the company was not telling the truth - that the company was playing all kinds of tricks to bolster it's balance sheets - and in the end your dollar is now worth $.75.

You not only lost the quarter, but you lost much more than that since the original $1 was worth more than today's dollar - so your loss is actually staggering.
I don't really stagger over a buck and a quarter, but I see your point.

My response was a direct reply to the sceario I was responding to, which was different than yours...
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Old 07-15-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

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What you lost was the potential gain of $2.00. Yes, you have more than you started with, but you still have less than the amount of what your stock was once valued...
My point exactly. Loss is relative. So saying "100bil lost while we slept" has no real meaning. Maybe we made $200bil the night before while we slept.
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Old 07-15-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

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Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
My point exactly. Loss is relative. So saying "100bil lost while we slept" has no real meaning. Maybe we made $200bil the night before while we slept.
"loss is relative"...relative to what?

What part do you not understand?
Through inflation $1 is worth less than it was pre 2003.
So if stocks are flat you are losing money.
If stocks are down you are REALLY losing money
If stocks are slightly up - you are losing money.
You are only making money if the % of gain is greater than the inflation rate and the mean value of the original dollar when invested.

Overall the entire market has lost $2.5 TRILLION dollars this year alone.
Sooo any gains made in going on 5 years is lost....there is NO way jviehe NO WAY that the markets will be good in the next 5 years - there is absolutely nothing that gives any indication that the large gains in the last 5 years is anything but smoke and mirrors.
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Old 07-17-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
not necessarily true.

You have $2...you invest $1.
Over a period of time that $1 became valued at $4 as you invested in a company that was realizing huge margins. YOu think you are doing great.
But then - you learn that the company was not telling the truth - that the company was playing all kinds of tricks to bolster it's balance sheets - and in the end your dollar is now worth $.75.

You not only lost the quarter, but you lost much more than that since the original $1 was worth more than today's dollar - so your loss is actually staggering.
You put 5,000 a year into your retirement program for 20 years and were told it was growing, that it was worth over a million. When you retire you find that it's worth $110,000.

Cheer up, at least you made money!
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Old 07-17-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
"loss is relative"...relative to what?

What part do you not understand?
Through inflation $1 is worth less than it was pre 2003.
So if stocks are flat you are losing money.
If stocks are down you are REALLY losing money
If stocks are slightly up - you are losing money.
You are only making money if the % of gain is greater than the inflation rate and the mean value of the original dollar when invested.

Overall the entire market has lost $2.5 TRILLION dollars this year alone.
Sooo any gains made in going on 5 years is lost....there is NO way jviehe NO WAY that the markets will be good in the next 5 years - there is absolutely nothing that gives any indication that the large gains in the last 5 years is anything but smoke and mirrors.
Markets are always up in the long term. Im not worried about a single day blip.
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Old 07-17-2008
chrisl chrisl is offline
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

The problem of course is that the long-term can be 20+ years based on historical performance, and this is a significant fraction of a human lifetime. If an investor has a use for money before then (retirement, home, etc.) the long-term returns won't make them happier.
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Old 07-17-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
My point exactly. Loss is relative. So saying "100bil lost while we slept" has no real meaning. Maybe we made $200bil the night before while we slept.
OK fine, and 500 years ago there wasn't a stock market at all, at least we're better of than that. So stop whining and be thankful we have TV and the Printing Press.
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Old 07-17-2008
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Re: $100bn lost while we slept.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jviehe View Post
Markets are always up in the long term. Im not worried about a single day blip.
{sigh}
Not sure what you are not getting here...

Ok...let's say you are retired, and you are now wanting to get the money from your 401k account that you have saved for a kabillion years.
Oh...but crap - the markets for the last 6 months have been down 3000 points and you are down $10,000's.....

Not everyone has "long term" - we don't live forever.
I maintain that the market in the last 5 years (surely you agree with this) is over bloated to the nth degree. A major adjustment one way or another is inevitable...without question a lot of retired people are going to get caught with their paints down if they retire when the inevitable large adjustment takes place - they won't have 20 years to ride it back out.
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