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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2008
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Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

I imagine everyone here knows numerous people who have lost their jobs.
The next big fiasco just around the corner is an expected second big hit against banks as loan defaults continue to soar.

Quote:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The unemployment rate soared to a nearly five-year high in August, topping 6%, as employers trimmed jobs for the eighth straight month, according to the latest government reading Friday that came in weaker than forecasts.
Unemployment rate hits 5-year high of 6.1% - Sep. 5, 2008
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Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

Wow this is one thing that is highly unusual for this decade and the last few years of the last century, even going back to the mid 90's maybe, that unemployment has always remained very low. This is a sharp rise, and unexpected.
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Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

We have the really weird situation that the US economy is growing, but the jobless rate is increasing. Over here some regions are now in recession, and growth is basically flat, but it doesn't seem to effect the unemployment which is still historically low. Does anyone have an explanation for that? Is it just that we can't trust monetary numbers any more now that the financial system is so much bigger than the real economy?
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Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

Quote:
Originally Posted by erikvv View Post
We have the really weird situation that the US economy is growing, but the jobless rate is increasing. Over here some regions are now in recession, and growth is basically flat, but it doesn't seem to effect the unemployment which is still historically low. Does anyone have an explanation for that? Is it just that we can't trust monetary numbers any more now that the financial system is so much bigger than the real economy?

My explanation is efficiency. Do more with less. Businesses are cutting the slackers and everyone else is working harder. Which is actually a great thing for businesses. Sucks for those who lose their jobs, but I guess they werent that valuable. Nevertheless, things go up and down. Im used to it.
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Old 09-05-2008
Cato Cato is offline
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

Golly, this was totally unexpected. Much like it was totally unexpected when minors and returning college students couldn't find jobs this summer.

First person who can guess the causes of these events wins the prize. (I'll give you a hint: expect the same thing to happen next year around this time.)
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Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

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Originally Posted by Cato View Post
Golly, this was totally unexpected. Much like it was totally unexpected when minors and returning college students couldn't find jobs this summer.

First person who can guess the causes of these events wins the prize. (I'll give you a hint: expect the same thing to happen next year around this time.)
perhaps you didn't notice the part that this has been going of for 8 months?
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Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

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Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
perhaps you didn't notice the part that this has been going of for 8 months?
Nope, I've noticed it. Did you happen to notice that the acceleration over the last month is what seems to be shocking everyone?
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Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

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Nope, I've noticed it. Did you happen to notice that the acceleration over the last month is what seems to be shocking everyone?
No, I would notice that the slow death of employment has eroded to a 5 year low...which is not the end of the world...but a not so insignificant mark.
Not so much that this many people are unemployed - that is not the real issue...the real issue is the debt they will default on.
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Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

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Originally Posted by iamwhatiseem View Post
No, I would notice that the slow death of employment has eroded to a 5 year low...which is not the end of the world...but a not so insignificant mark.
Not so much that this many people are unemployed - that is not the real issue...the real issue is the debt they will default on.
Unemployment went from 5% to 5.5% in May, flat in June, up another .2% in July, and now another .4% for August. In December of last year we were at 4.8%. So, we've gone from 4.8% to 6.1% - a change of 1.3 points in 8 months. 1.1 points, the overwhelming majority of the past 8 month's increase, came in just four months - May through August. Seems like something must have happened somewhere around there.
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Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

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Originally Posted by Cato View Post
Unemployment went from 5% to 5.5% in May, flat in June, up another .2% in July, and now another .4% for August. In December of last year we were at 4.8%. So, we've gone from 4.8% to 6.1% - a change of 1.3 points in 8 months. 1.1 points, the overwhelming majority of the past 8 month's increase, came in just four months - May through August. Seems like something must have happened somewhere around there.
ahh...sorry my misconception...I thought you were saying this was no big deal.
I didn't think there could be more than one jviehe super optimist...
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Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

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Originally Posted by Traveler View Post
Wow this is one thing that is highly unusual for this decade and the last few years of the last century, even going back to the mid 90's maybe, that unemployment has always remained very low. This is a sharp rise, and unexpected.


I was waiting for the rest of the fallout of the min wage rise and the end of summer purge in the entertainment industry is as normal as nitrogen.
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Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

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Originally Posted by daddio View Post
I was waiting for the rest of the fallout of the min wage rise
DING! DING! DING! DING! We have a winner! Johnny, tell 'em what he's won!
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Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

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Originally Posted by Cato View Post
DING! DING! DING! DING! We have a winner! Johnny, tell 'em what he's won!


please let it be Rice-a-Roni the San Francisco treat !
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Hope is the opposite of audacity. It's passive, an excuse for inaction.

Socialism doesn't create a rising tide that lifts all boats. It drains the lake and teaches the boat riders not to help themselves by rowing.

“What's the difference between Sarah Palin and Barack Obama?”

“One is a well turned-out, good-looking, and let's be honest, pretty sexy piece of eye-candy.

“The other kills her own food.”
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

Quote:
Originally Posted by Traveler View Post
Wow this is one thing that is highly unusual for this decade and the last few years of the last century, even going back to the mid 90's maybe, that unemployment has always remained very low. This is a sharp rise, and unexpected.
Used to be that most workers were unskilled, so were easily laid off when the economy slowed down. These days most companies have a considerable training investment in their workers and skilled people are hard to replace when things pick up again, so they are much more reluctant to lay off people. They will hang on to them as long as possible, hoping the economy will turn around.The recent increase in unemployment is probably due to businesses being forced to recognize that things aren't going to turn around anytime soon.

On the other side of things, much of the employment increase in the booming economy of the last decade or so was the self-employed, who aren't counted by the government as unemployed as they can't collect unemployment insurance. However, they still don't have jobs if their business failed, as so many are doing recently, so the real unemployment rate is probably far higher than government figures show.

Quote:
My explanation is efficiency. Do more with less. Businesses are cutting the slackers and everyone else is working harder. Which is actually a great thing for businesses. Sucks for those who lose their jobs, but I guess they werent that valuable. Nevertheless, things go up and down. Im used to it.
Businesses have become more efficient, but I haven't noticed them "cutting the slackers" (most management would be fired) or "everyone else working harder". Most of the layoffs are due to declining sales.
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Old 09-08-2008
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Re: Jobless rate at 5 year high, 8 mos. straight

Anyone ever think of saying it like this?

Employment at 5 year low of 94.9%. Doesnt sound so bad anymore does it?
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