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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imperator View Post
No, not really except that, all the ballyhoo over what mechanism was created and how we hit the shitter, really forgoes the finer point; since the CRA was created; this was preordained.

The gov. told the banks hence wall st. you’ll give out loans to folks whom cannot afford it or else. (They even commissioned a study that was so far off base it was pathetic, it alleged that race was the primary factor in loans not being prvioced to what became sub prime markets. From there, it was all down hill).

Anyway, they said oh fuck no, you are not going to hang us out to dry for a 7% increase in home ownership to make yourselves look good, so they fought back. They found a way to lay it back on them, which yes means us, but then again we were on the hook from the beginning anyway ( why do you think F&F wound up being the mismanaged and bankrupt inst. It has become? Answer; because there was in the end NO way to make the numbers work). And when I see we I mean anyone who pays net taxes, we were gonna get screwed the day Carter signed that act, one way, or another.
I acknowledge that the government sponsored a "Let them eat cake" initiative in regard to home ownership.

It definitely played a big role in the mess at the root level...(the interaction between Heidi and her patrons)....

What I'm after is what contributed most and at which level we can actually do something to prevent the whole thing from happening again.
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLastBoyScout View Post
I'm not pro-bailout. I too would have rather accepted the fallout from the credit markets and banks collapsing.

In regard to personal losses of responsible people, I don't care how wise or conservative an investor you are, to not take some hit through this recession would require quite a bit of magic. Even if you came out ahead somehow, your dollars are worth less, your house is worth less, etc.
Yes but a market of the nature that Melanie describes will rebound and is likely to rebound stronger than it was before the collapse. Look at it this way. If in the scenario you described (which I think does an excellent job of providing an example by the way) the government had stayed out of and just let the market handle it then it is likely that the future customers of businesses would be more cautious about the debt they incur, the future Heidis would be more careful about their business policies, the future creditors on up the line would be more careful about the businesses that they lend to, etc. It's kinda like the old saying about how when your heart gets broken it mends back stronger only with regards to the economy.

I can certainly see where you are coming from and why you feel the way that you do but I feel that the best thing for at least the federal government is to not get involved outside of maybe cutting taxes or giving speeches encouraging people to be more careful in the future (not forcing these people mind you, just encouraging them).
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLastBoyScout View Post
I acknowledge that the government sponsored a "Let them eat cake" initiative in regard to home ownership.

It definitely played a big role in the mess at the root level...(the interaction between Heidi and her patrons)....

What I'm after is what contributed most and at which level we can actually do something to prevent the whole thing from happening again.
Are you familiar with the MBS deal, how that worked? Mortgage Backed Securities?
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLastBoyScout View Post
What I'm after is what contributed most and at which level we can actually do something to prevent the whole thing from happening again.
Easy money is at fault, too much capital chasing too few opportunities, a perfect scenario for the Wall Street wolves. The easy money was the Fed's fault.

As far as prevention, I say, take them off the grid. Pass a law that no SEC regulated company can engage in derivatives that doesn't involve their primary business, and those derivatives in total cannot have a material effect on earnings.

In the same law clearly state that no Treasury or Fed money can ever be used to provide liquidity to any derivatives market. No regulations, no bailout, no access to government money.

Goldman Sachs would have to go private again, which is fine with me.

I'd also like to see the big banks broken up into smaller pieces that wouldn't be "too big to fail" (that goes against my nature as a "free market" guy, but damnit they made a mess of things).
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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

And btw, repeal CRA.
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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Really good explanation.

^response to the original post.


edit: I would say they are all responsible, but would say the people consuming the alcohol (the customers) are the most responsible.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleTed View Post

As far as prevention, I say, take them off the grid. Pass a law that no SEC regulated company can engage in derivatives that doesn't involve their primary business, and those derivatives in total cannot have a material effect on earnings.

In the same law clearly state that no Treasury or Fed money can ever be used to provide liquidity to any derivatives market. No regulations, no bailout, no access to government money.
I'm liking that idea.

I'm wondering if all derivatives should also be made part of a public exchange.....I'm pretty sure that Geithner talked about that, but I would want to make sure they follow through on that.
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Last edited by TheLastBoyScout; 3 Weeks Ago at 03:28 PM.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Quote:
1) So who is most irresponsible in this scenario (back to the quoted analogy)?
The drunks, of course. Such a business plan is so blatantly contrary to common sense that every one should know better. Heidi and her creditors might have devised such a crazy scheme, but no one made anyone sign on the dotted line. Who's more the fool, the fool or the fool who follows him?

Of course, thats were our little analogy diverges from reality, which more closely resembles the drunks hitting up Heidi for "free samples" over and over, and getting a lawyer and a cop if she refuses. If you deny people the means to earn an honest living, they will earn a dishonest one. Is it any wonder why Heidi et al would look for ways to make a bundle short term?

Quote:
2) If we would want to prevent this kind of scenario from happening, at which level would it make sense to regulate the risk taking?
Bankers had a built in way to nip this in the bud. It's called asking questions, but problems develope when you legislatively declare questions racist.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLastBoyScout View Post
I have to preface this by admitting that I don't have intimate knowledge of the derivatives market, but I believe this little allegory is probably pretty accurate:

Derivative Market for dummies - Off the Cuff



That seems pretty clear cut to me. There was huge risk that had to be known to people that extended credit initially.....and then that risk was bundled and sold and resold....at each level, there was probably a decreased awareness of the risk. After the catastrophe, given the nature of the game, it's easy to diffuse the blame...



1) So who is most irresponsible in this scenario (back to the quoted analogy)?


A) Heidi's Customers - They wanted a drink and they were happy to get one even though they knew that they had no means to pay for it

B) Heidi - She certainly had to be conscious of the risk

C) Heidi's Direct Creditor (local bank) - The bank extended credit to her apparently either without doing a good determination of creditworthiness or in spite of knowing the risk. Did they do their homework?

D) The Bank's Creditor (Corporate Investment Bank) - They bundled the expected future returns into derivatives and sold them.



2) If we would want to prevent this kind of scenario from happening, at which level would it make sense to regulate the risk taking?
If I see this right, the answer would be C) and, to a lesser extent D) as they would no doubt accept, that C) has done his homework and checked the risks.

The article you posted is a very accurate descrption of the functioning o f angl-american Capitalism.
IE any risk is acceptable as long as money can be made of it for a short period.
This mentality has brought about two major and some eight minor economy crashes with effects on the economies of the whole world.
And, with the current heavy borrowing from the State, the next major crash is pre-programmed.

Brings us to point 2)

Find and accept a version of Capitalism, which reduces risks to a bearable level.
Eliminate the careless and brainless high-risk takers by letting them go bankrupt.
Give credits only to founders of new businesses ( existing businesses too if they can prove, they´ve been harmed by reckless actions of others while having acted responsibly themselves ) after carefully considering the risks and the probable rentability accompanied by that deal.

Create laws to severely punish individuals and corporations who recklessly endanger and harm the common economy for purely personal gain.

Lend every unemployed a patch of land and a cabin, where they can fend for themselves and their families until they get new employment or start their own business.
Give SS only to the handicapped and chronically ill.
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Imperator View Post
No, not really except that, all the ballyhoo over what mechanism was created and how we hit the shitter, really forgoes the finer point; since the CRA was created; this was preordained.

The gov. told the banks hence wall st. you’ll give out loans to folks whom cannot afford it or else. (They even commissioned a study that was so far off base it was pathetic, it alleged that race was the primary factor in loans not being prvioced to what became sub prime markets. From there, it was all down hill).

Anyway, they said oh fuck no, you are not going to hang us out to dry for a 7% increase in home ownership to make yourselves look good, so they fought back. They found a way to lay it back on them, which yes means us, but then again we were on the hook from the beginning anyway ( why do you think F&F wound up being the mismanaged and bankrupt inst. It has become? Answer; because there was in the end NO way to make the numbers work). And when I see we I mean anyone who pays net taxes, we were gonna get screwed the day Carter signed that act, one way, or another.
Here we go again blaming the CRA.

We had a dual system going, on one hand banks playing by the rules, and on the other hand banks going after the same customers, but outside the purview of the CRA.

What should have happened was when it was evident that there were non-traditional banks trying to capitalize on the CRA market, without oversight, the SEC should have stepped in and put a stop to it, or insisted they comply with the provisions of the CRA; which they couldn't have.

Loans within the CRA were lower interest, and much less likely to default.

All this blame shifting from rouge banks onto banks complying with CRA, is ridiculous.

This is like pharmaceutical drug companies on one hand, and illegal drug lords on the other.
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angry American View Post
Here we go again blaming the CRA.

We had a dual system going, on one hand banks playing by the rules, and on the other hand banks going after the same customers, but outside the purview of the CRA.

What should have happened was when it was evident that there were non-traditional banks trying to capitalize on the CRA market, without oversight, the SEC should have stepped in and put a stop to it, or insisted they comply with the provisions of the CRA; which they couldn't have.

Loans within the CRA were lower interest, and much less likely to default.

All this blame shifting from rouge banks onto banks complying with CRA, is ridiculous.

This is like pharmaceutical drug companies on one hand, and illegal drug lords on the other.
wth are you talking about? is F&F a rogue bank? the numbers didn't work where never gonna work and we were gonna take it right you know where and we did....and for what?
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLastBoyScout View Post
I'm liking that idea.

I'm wondering if all derivatives should also be made part of a public exchange.....I'm pretty sure that Geithner talked about that, but I would want to make sure they follow through on that.
We've already got the CBOT, and of course, Las Vegas.
I don't think easier access will lessen the problem, although it would increase the transparency for those needing their daily "fix".
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

As a modification to the original scenario:

The one fee that Heidi DID charge her customers, and demanded payment every drink from, was a 5% fee called Drink Tab Insurance. This money went to an insurance company that guaranteed Heidi payment for clients who eventually showed they didn't have enough money to pay their tab. That way Heidi wasn't completely screwed when customers couldn't pay their bill ... she could go to the insurance company and redeem the Drink Tab Insurance policies.

My question with this mortage meltdown, is what the fuck happened to mortgage insurance? And unlike drunks at a bar, the houses and the land they were built on still existed as assets for Heidi or the larger banks to seize as collateral. The mortgage insurance as well as the physical collateral of the houses should have been PLENTY to keep everything afloat without needing bailouts.

What happened to the mortgage insurance money? Is it really just a scam as I've suspected all along for banks to collect an extra 5%?
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Disillusioned_1 View Post
As a modification to the original scenario:

The one fee that Heidi DID charge her customers, and demanded payment every drink from, was a 5% fee called Drink Tab Insurance. This money went to an insurance company that guaranteed Heidi payment for clients who eventually showed they didn't have enough money to pay their tab. That way Heidi wasn't completely screwed when customers couldn't pay their bill ... she could go to the insurance company and redeem the Drink Tab Insurance policies.

My question with this mortage meltdown, is what the fuck happened to mortgage insurance? And unlike drunks at a bar, the houses and the land they were built on still existed as assets for Heidi or the larger banks to seize as collateral. The mortgage insurance as well as the physical collateral of the houses should have been PLENTY to keep everything afloat without needing bailouts.

What happened to the mortgage insurance money? Is it really just a scam as I've suspected all along for banks to collect an extra 5%?
Mortgage insurance pays off the mortgage if the borrower dies.
If the borrower doesn't pay, the bank repos the property.
But the mortgage crisis was only a small part of the meltdown.
Credit Default Swaps were the major part of the meltdown, and for something hardly anyone had ever heard of, there were a lot of them, the face value of the credit default swap market was 76 Trillion dollars, considering that all the corporate bonds in the world add up to around 7 trillion dollars, that was a lot of money bet, and since it was unregulated, there wasn't any reserve requirement. The average default swap sold for 2% of face, so people paid 1.5 trillion dollars for credit default swaps which boosted the earnings of the hedge funds that sold them, until someone defaulted, and then it wiped out the hedge funds that sold them.
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 3 Weeks Ago
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Re: Derivatives for Dummies.

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Originally Posted by Imperator View Post
wth are you talking about? is F&F a rogue bank? the numbers didn't work where never gonna work and we were gonna take it right you know where and we did....and for what?
It's your numbers that don't add up. You're just rehashing already debunked partisan dribble. How Uber-Partisan of you.
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