I have a theory about the European debt crisis which I don't have the time to research but it goes like this:
The global trend has been to eliminate tariffs and to increase exports through the Value Added Tax rebate, which is legal under WTO law. The VAT using nations (137 nations) intentionally increase tax reliance on the VAT, displacing corporate tax revenues in the strategy of being able to lower the export costs greater than if they only had a corporate tax, since under WTO law, a direct tax like the corporate tax can't be rebated without it being declared an illegal export subsidy.
But the rebate of VAT taxes negates the VAT revenue that would have come from exports. The result has been a global increase of exports relative to gross national product (GNP) but a decrease in both tariff and VAT revenues as a percentage of GNP.
With this constantly decreasing national revenue as a percent of GNP driven by the goal of increasing exports, the governments are now faced with limited options.
1. The governments must borrow more and increase deficit spending. The interest payments on their debts will consume a greater part of existing revenues.
2. The governments must increase property/income taxes to replace the falling VAT/corporate tax revenues. But this will erode the purchasing power of its consumers/citizens and their standard of living.
3. The governments must decrease spending. Typically governments who attempt to cut spending on social programs and employment that impact the poorest of its population can expect severe social reactions. (Greece for example)
What has been happening I suspect has been a combination of all three, and I view these trends as unsustainable. Eventually these governments must default. I don't know the individual finances of all 137 VAT nations, but the United States instead of rebating a VAT tax which it does not have, has been reducing corporate tax revenues since WW II in the effort to remain competitive in the global market.
Since 1945, the share of total Federal taxes paid by corporations dropped from 35 percent to 6.6% percent in 2009, an 81 percent decline.
Tariff revenues have decreased from 41% of all Federal revenues in 1900 to around 1% in 2000.
U.S. TARIFF HISTORY 1821-2000
YEARS……………..AVERAGE EFFECTIVE TARIFF (% tax on all imports)
1821-1830………….46.6%
1831-1840………….24.9%
1841-1850………….24.0%
1851-186……………20.8%
1861-1870………….36.2%
1871-1880………….31.3%
1881-1890………….30.1%
1891-1900………….23.7%
1821-1900………….29.7%
1901-1910………….25.0%
1911-1920………….11.8%
1921-1930………….13.8%
1931-1940………….16.8%
1941-1950………….9.0%
1901-1950………….15.3%
1951-1960………….5.9%
1961-1970………….7.3%
1971-1980………….4.0%
1981-1990………….3.5%
1991-2000………….2.5%
YEAR----------TARIFF % (TARIFF REVENUE/TOTAL FEDERAL REVENUE x 100%)
1789------------99.5%
1800------------83.7%
1825------------92.0%
1850------------90.9%
1875------------54.6%
1900------------41.1%
1925------------15.0%
1950------------1.0%
1975------------1.3%
2000------------N/A*
*1997 was the last year that the U.S. Statistical Abstract published duty revenues. It has been conveniently censored from 1998 on to the present.
The income tax was created in 1913, just in time to be around to fund WW I :
YEAR.....INOME TAX REVENUE.....TARIFF REVENUE
1916............$173,387,000.........$213,185,000
1917............$675,250,000.........$225,962,000
Up until 1916, the tariff was the largest single Federal revenue source.
1917 was the first time in U.S. history that the income tax surpassed the tariff and we've never looked back since then.
2007 IMPORTS AND TARIFF REVENUES
IMPORTS = $2,345.983 billion
(source:
http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...es/09s1260.pdf )
TARIFFS = $26.010 billion of which $1.339 billion came from trust fund revenues.
(source:
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy09/pdf/hist.pdf Table 2.5 p.50 of 342)
$26.010 - $1.339 = $24.671 billion
$24.671 / $2,345.983 x 100% = 1.0% EFFECTIVE TAX RATE
U.S GDP = $13,841 billion
(source:
http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...es/09s0645.pdf )
Imports as a percent of U.S. GDP are now a staggering 16.9% of GDP yet only pay 1.0% effective tax rate.
Percent of Federal revenues paid by tariffs in 1905 was 47.4%
In 2002, 49% of all Federal revenue came from the personal income tax.
The entire U.S. economy now suffers under a 30% effective tax rate.
http://pascrell.house.gov/views/tradelabor.shtml
“Domestic U.S. producers face a massive and unfair trade obstacle. Altogether, imports into the U.S. face average tariffs of 1.3% and no VAT penalty, whereas U.S. exports face average tariffs worldwide of about 40% plus VAT border adjustment penalties of 15.7%. In addition, foreign companies get a VAT rebate when they export to the U.S. averaging 15.7%. Thus, most imports to the U.S. are subsidized by foreign VAT rebates and all U.S. exports are not. The “Border Tax Equity Act” eliminates these inequities and levels the playing field for American manufacturers.”
Bill Pascrell
U.S. Congressman, (D) New Jersey
Steve
Bookmarks