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I am not expert enough to judge that but I am not aware of a completely described path of evolution for the all sorts of flagellums that exist today ("the bacterial flagellum" is a simplification after all). The reason for this is easily found. We don't know enough of that system as of yet. But even though no complete path is known there is evidence for evolutionary processes and structure as well as sequence homologies are a key to that.
If you wanted to proof that there is still a lot of ignorance, yep. Point taken. There is enough understanding of it however already to know that the irreducible complexity as originally defined by Behe does certainly not apply to that system.
Regarding scientific consensus. Unless you are an all knowing entity you have to rely on research of others. That does not mean you can not or should not think critically of something just because it is a consensus. But unless you are an expert yourself you are probably in a difficult position to conduct educated criticism. I am not an expert of molecular evolution. So the scientific consensus is a starting point for me. For school classes the focus definitely has to lie on the consensus as well. There is enough important stuff to learn there anyway and far too little time. I am open to the idea of showing pupils critical thinking with a concrete example of competing scientific hypothesis. But these have to be scientific hypothesis or theories. ID fails to meet that test.
Crime scene investigators are not conducting science. They are helping the enforcement of law, maybe using methods developed by scientists. But "de facto evidence" simply isn't a category I know from science. It is one known in justice.Crime scene investigators draw similar inferences as ID and people are sent to jail on account of the evidence. [and no, they don't need to know who the perpetrator was in order to tell a crime was commited]
Well, the simple probabilistic calculation he conducted was based on mechanisms which don't work that way in reality (or at least if they did that would be against everything we know of molecular biology so far), nor would it make much sense if they worked that way. So "impossible" might be the wrong term, also a clock that doesn't work is right twice a day after all.All at once you claim that it is impossible to calculate the probability and that Dembski's calculation is wrong. How can you know he is wrong if you don't know what the probabilities are? You aren't going to persuade too many undecideds with that line of argument.
I can go into more detail why Dembski's calculation are such a nonsense, if you like to, but I think I did so already at some point further above.
I think what Dembski did is called pseudo-quantification. The probability of a process depends immensely on the involved mechanisms. How are you supposed to calculate the probability then if you don't know the precise variable your result depends on so much? That is not much more than guessing then, even if you fill it into a mathematical form.
So ID is a hypothesis of sociology? And I thought it was about supposedly being a competing hypothesis to evolution in the field of biology. So maybe it is all just a big misunderstanding?15 years is a long time. You asked for an ID prediction earlier. Here it is: ID predicts that the more they begin to grasp the complexity of living things, the more evolution is going to rely on hypothetical suppositions in order to explain its origin and remain in the game.
I never liked the term "junk DNA" myself. I think it is a judging term when in fact we just don't know enough of it yet. I consider the arguments of both, Dembski and Dawkins to be flawed.Because evolutionists---going all the way back Darwin himself, consistently underestimate the complexity of living things. 'Junk DNA' is a prime example. Dembski, in one of his books some years ago, claimed it wasn't junk, based on design assumptions. Whereas, Dawkins and several others claimed that Junk DNA was evidence for an unguided evolutionary process and evidence against design.
It's turning out to not be 'junk' after all.
Show me that positive proof and then tell me why the claim "it was a designer" is superior over "it was magic".... to limit ID to mere criticisms of evolution is to totally ignore [or dismiss out of hand] the positive evidence claims of the theory.
“We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it.”
Jean Caude Juncker
Last edited by Traveler; 06-29-2011 at 11:01 AM.
When I gave food to the poor, they called me a saint. When I asked why they are poor, they called me a Communist.
-Bishop Hélder Câmara
"I like to pay taxes. With them, I buy civilization"
Oliver Wendell Holmes
The ID prediction is that an adequately described evolutionary pathway will never be found.
Provided, you accept the hypothetical evolutionary scenarios as evidence that it has been refuted. In my estimation, science would be better served if both hypotheses were allowed to stand until one is declared the clear winner. As it is, we will very likely have to settle for 'evolution of the gaps' in molecular evolution.Originally Posted by Slartibartfas
Unless something happens to the status quo.
I would settle for making it postively clear to students that evolution is a very broad theory and much of it is hypothetical.Originally Posted by Slartibartfas
To me, that is a distinction without a difference. In crime scene investigation justice is the goal and science it their method of attaining that objective. I think you are conflating the two. And evidence is evidence is evidence. We'll have to agree to disagree on that point.Originally Posted by Slartibartfas
We don't fully understand the mechanisms yet; hence, any claims involving probabilities are going to be provisional, to put it mildly. I don't know that Dembski is 'more wrong' in his calculations than anyone else at this point.Originally Posted by Slartibartfas
Not sure which tree you are barking up with that one. I made a simple prediction: As time goes by and we discover more layers of complexity in living things, the science of evolution will rely more and more on hypothetical suppositions to explain it.Originally Posted by Slartibartfas
And one we'll wake up one day and realize that we traded 'God of the gaps' for 'evolution of the gaps'.
You may not have liked the term, but it was bandied-about by some pretty notable evolutionary biologists that did so according their assumptions about evolution.Originally Posted by Slartibartfas
...instead, they [junk DNA] seem to point toward the kind of idiosyncratic tinkering for which nonsentient evolutionary processes are notorious.” [Professor of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology John C. Avise]
Granting his assumptions, the logic is nearly unassailable: If biological life was cobbled together over eons via a 'non-sentient evolutionary process' then you would expect spare or useless parts [junk DNA] to be laying around; indeed, if none were found, it would be quite surprising---given the assumptions.
ID'ers have different assumptions so they weren't surprised that the term junk DNA had to be junked.
That is not a scientific prediction which I was referring to. A prediction would have to add knowledge of some sort and apply a supposed mechanism that this very hypothesis explains. What you say is not more than the prediction of continuing ignorance on this aspect. But ID does not explain any mechanism at all. All it does is to postulate a mysterious unexplainable design mechanism. If I replace all the "it had to be designed" from ID with "magic did it", wouldn't the case for "magic did it" be exactly as strong or weak as for "it had to be designed"? Should we teach in school that evolution can also alternatively be explained by magic?
Nope, it is pretty much a fact that parts of complex systems like the flagellum can serve a function without most of the other parts, even if its a different one. As Behe's definition rules that out for irreducible complexity, a corner of his definition is seriously shaking. The point is, and Behe to my knowledge even admitted it somewhere that maybe the problem is not that parts can't have a function on their own but that we simply don't know of them yet. And unless you haven't found one, it is almost impossible to rule out that there is none unless you have a complete understanding of the entire system, also historically. So here we are back at square one: argument from ignorance.Provided, you accept the hypothetical evolutionary scenarios as evidence that it has been refuted. In my estimation, science would be better served if both hypotheses were allowed to stand until one is declared the clear winner. As it is, we will very likely have to settle for 'evolution of the gaps' in molecular evolution.
It is good scientific practice for anyone who claims irreducible complexity is a valid theory that in a specific case, a function of parts is proven to be impossible and that has to be tested and confirmed. It is hard to test the non existence of other functions than the original one, any other function, those you might guess but also those you have no idea of. I am looking forward to see ID supporters taking that tough challenge. I know ID supporters want to make it an easy game and push the obligation of providing proof to the other side but thats not how science works. If you want to work along the rule "innocent until proven guilty" law is a better field. In science it is rather "not more than a hypothesis until supported by positive proof". I am still waiting for the positive proof of either "irreducible complexity" or ID.
Which is basically true for every scientific theory. Dig deep enough and you end up with hypothesis or not even that. Welcome to science. Those parts that are taught in school are not hypothetical however but state of the art theories. If you say a theory must offer complete understandng + proof of everything, you failing the scientific definition of theory. By these standards we would not have any theories at all.I would settle for making it postively clear to students that evolution is a very broad theory and much of it is hypothetical.
You also mentioned a lack of "complete understanding" of something. That is the same aspect. We will never have "complete" understanding of anything. Science is like watching the X-Files. You get one answer and three new questions each episode. The times when scientists thought they could reach complete knowledge are long gone, at least 100 years. If you want, science has passed that hubris. In other words. You can oppose any scientific theory based on your arguments of lack of "complete understanding". To use that as proof for a different concept is as easy as meaningless.
But I do if I remember his calculations correctly and everyone with a basic understanding of molecular biology will do so as well. Dembski made a simple probability calculation how likely an entirely random mix of 20 AA could form a protein of a length usually found in modern life forms. For each position the right AA has to be found.We don't fully understand the mechanisms yet; hence, any claims involving probabilities are going to be provisional, to put it mildly. I don't know that Dembski is 'more wrong' in his calculations than anyone else at this point.
If I do a quick calculation the probability for a 300 AA protein would be:
(1/20)³⁰⁰= 5*10⁻³⁹¹
That's a damn low probability indeed. But why do I say that calculation totally fails the point?
x) In many parts of a protein, not only the precise position of an AA in the sequence is of little consequence but there are various AAs that all could get the job done at varying efficiencies. This pretty much pulverizes the basic premise of this whole calculation. As we are using a function to a very high power, errors get multiplied into obscene dimensions.
x) Building the entire sequence at once by complete randomness is a fun supposition but one that has little to do with reality. In reality a lot of parts of sequences are made up by repetition of short sequences. All alpha helices can be formed by repeating a short sequence multiple times and in various positions, just to name an example. The functionally active centre can be pretty short. Actually conserved regions of proteins show us pretty well which parts are really important to be precisely matched. Conserved regions can be less than a dozen AAs in an enzyme, of course it depends but certainly it is usually a smaller rather than a large number.
x) Why limiting it to one specific function? In other words how likely are you to find a specific elephant individual in India? How much more likely are you to find any elephant in India? All by chance of course. This analogy is somewhat bad, because with proteins it is even much more extreme. I can't remember any numbers but the likelihood that a random protein has not a specific, but any function whatsoever is not low at all. As a matter fact the 20 amino acids are pretty useful tools and enable an incredible number of functional combinations.
x) According to prevalent hypothesis on abiogenesis like the RNA world, proteins were not the first complex polymers to appear. They were predated by RNA. As RNA is the basic core of protein synthesis, you don't need proteins for their own synthesis. While that certainly cuts down efficiency a lot, it is feasible to envision a world where ancient mRNA, tRNA and rRNA etc did the job on their own. Of course that would totally question the assumption of "complete randomness" as RNA, can have ribozyme activity and manipulate other RNA. Moreover it increases the chance of AA polymerisation, random or not, dramatically. And dramatically might be an understatement.
That is from the top of my head. There might be already more reasons known that cut the simple probabilistic calculation in bits and pieces and then we haven't started to talk about mechanisms we are not sure about yet or which we simply don't know yet.
In short: That calculation of Dembski is as credible as me doing a random calculation of your risk of being hit by lightning, without much knowledge of meteorology or you.
The point was that a theory of biology has to make a biological prediction. Yours was not of that kind. Your criticism could be applied to every single field of science as the more knowledge we have the more questions we can ask. That does not disqualify the knowledge we already have. And while there are more questions, the picture becomes clearer nonetheless.Not sure which tree you are barking up with that one. I made a simple prediction: As time goes by and we discover more layers of complexity in living things, the science of evolution will rely more and more on hypothetical suppositions to explain it.
And one we'll wake up one day and realize that we traded 'God of the gaps' for 'evolution of the gaps'.
I know some very bad terms very respectable molecular biologists came already up with. That does not discredit their work, nor does it have real implications on the described concept, even if the term is a badly chosen one.You may not have liked the term, but it was bandied-about by some pretty notable evolutionary biologists that did so according their assumptions about evolution.
The last part is made up by you and not part of your quote. Actually both findings could be explained with a non-sentient process. If useless parts would not be found, it could be easily explained by heavier selective pressure forcing higher efficiency on the organisms. You don't find any introns in bacterial genomes, do you? Prokaryotes have to keep their genomes much more compact, it is essential for their fitness. Eukaryotes can afford to have genomes less over-optimized because they follow a different strategy of survival than prokaryotes.Granting his assumptions, the logic is nearly unassailable: If biological life was cobbled together over eons via a 'non-sentient evolutionary process' then you would expect spare or useless parts [junk DNA] to be laying around; indeed, if none were found, it would be quite surprising---given the assumptions.
Last edited by Slartibartfas; 06-30-2011 at 02:59 PM.
“We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it.”
Jean Caude Juncker
I would like to point out that Darwin went from Biblical Literalist to Agnostic from the time he boarded the Beagle until his death. He never argued against God's influence in the process and is even quoted as saying that it's absurd to think that someone can't be both a Theist and an Evolutionist.
All good socialists have villas in Southern France. That's not the point.
-Eurosocialist
I agree. I don't think there is anything in evolution that explicitly rules out God. Conversely, there is nothing in ID which explicitly points to Him. The first order of business is to establish design according to an objective criteria; not to prove religion or disprove atheism.
AFTER a design conclusion is apprehended, you procede to the inevitable questions of who, what, when and et cetera. And the 'who' isn't neccessarily the God of the Bible.
The young earth Creationists [the real cap-C Creationists, since theistic evolutionists are creationists, as well, by virtue of the fact they believe that God is ultimately behind evolution] understand this much better than the vast majority of ID critics who labor under the delusion that ID would neccessarily prove God.
YEC's reject common descent, the conventional geologic timescale and dogmatically hold to a particular interpretation of the first chapters of Genesis. And they are critical of ID because the question of the designer is left open. As pointed out above.
The two groups shouldn't be confused or conflated with one another.
Last edited by Darth Hussein Omar; 07-01-2011 at 10:21 AM.
No, I don't think you can.
You're comparing looking at an eye, today, and the structure that surrounds it, to what you believe is a "pre-eye" from millenia ago and claiming they are the same (or similar enough to be the same).
I think you are leaping to your foregone conclusion, here.
NOT that it didn't happen that way, that's not what I'm saying: Your progression of "light-sensitive" to "sighted eye" is, nonetheless, unobserved in nature, untested, and unproven and certainly not substantive enough to draw conclusions from...
Considering you quite clearly dont understand the science behind evolution, I'm not surprised.
Fixed that for you.You're comparing looking at an eye, today, and the structure that surrounds it, to what you know is a "pre-eye" from millenia ago and claiming they are the same (or similar enough to be the same).
I never stated they were the same, I stated they were related.
Because you're ignoring anything that's posted. You have an obvious confirmation bias and I'm starting to question why I'm even talking to you because you quite clearly aren't here to exchange. You're here to prove YOUR point and ignore anything anyone else says.NOT that it didn't happen that way, that's not what I'm saying: Your progression of "light-sensitive" to "sighted eye" is, nonetheless, unobserved in nature, untested, and unproven and certainly not substantive enough to draw conclusions from...
The gaps in your knowledge have been pointed out time and time again by multiple people and you just shrug and say we're taking it on faith when you've been given evidence for everything you've been told here.
If you cant be mature enough to engage in a proper exchange, then I submit that this is not the place for you.
When I gave food to the poor, they called me a saint. When I asked why they are poor, they called me a Communist.
-Bishop Hélder Câmara
"I like to pay taxes. With them, I buy civilization"
Oliver Wendell Holmes
Heh, heh, heh ... nice try, Hoppie, but yours is not the first time someone has demurrered on some point they dont' want to (or can't) respond to. I get that you don't like the whole concept of "faith" in a scientific context... but you claim to have given me "evidence" which is not evidence at all: Most of what you and "multiple people" have offered has NOT been observed in a natural setting, NOT been tested, and NOT been proven OTHER than you desperately WISH it to be true so you can cling to your worldview.
Your desperation is no more clearly evidenced than by your anger any time I question you on something you'd prefer to not think about.
Your choice, of course, but I'm guessing you're someone who cannot let anyone else have hte last word: Go ahead, prove me wrong.
EDIT: Your anger and faux outrage betray you, young padawan. I was right, you have to have the last word. It matters little whether or not you respond to me. You already have the information and there is no un-ringing that bell. Party on, Garth.
Last edited by Good1; 07-01-2011 at 12:36 PM.
When I gave food to the poor, they called me a saint. When I asked why they are poor, they called me a Communist.
-Bishop Hélder Câmara
"I like to pay taxes. With them, I buy civilization"
Oliver Wendell Holmes
As an hypothesis, ID is not illegitimate simply because it can't account for an explanatory mechanism that shows how something came to be designed. It is no different than the abiogenic hypothesis with its appeal to some mysterious deterministic force that created the first living thing. [it can't be natural selection since evolution and abiogenesis are two different things as some never tire of reminding us]
ID has something even better than a prediction: it has the potential for practical application.
Empirical ID research - ResearchID.org - Researching Intelligent Design
You don't have proof that IR has been refuted in the case of the flagellum. What you have are some evidences that are consistent with the hypothesis that it evolved in a gradualistic manner.Originally Posted by Slartibartfas
Proof, would be something like taking a population of bacteria and deleting that part of the genome that codes for the flagellum and then growing 10,000 or so generations of bacteria and then checking to see if they have made any progress towards evolving a flagellum.
And this they have not done. If they tried and it didn't show any evidence of evolution, they would say there wasn't sufficient time. And myself and other skeptics would be left feeling like 'the wicked generation that seeks a sign' that Jesus talked about in the Gospels.
Since evolution is often compared to gravity I will use it to illustrate my objection. Yes, there are some hypothetical aspects to the theory of gravity if only from a relativistic perspective. But they are slim as compared to what is going on in evolution. From human evolution right on down to the prokaryote-eukaryote leap, evolution is awash in hypotheses. At just about every turn.Originally Posted by Slartibartfas
There is no comparison.
Strong work. What is the probability then?Originally Posted by Slartibartfas
I guess I refer back to my link. Practical application trumps predictions in terms of science. Though, for ID to have a practical application it must make some predictions since any application would be founded on the theory's ability to make predictions. I admit I need to read up on it though.Originally Posted by Slartibarfas
How is evolution proceding in that area?
Didn't intend to misquote anyone. That said, we'll have to agree to disagree on that. I agreed with Dawkins and co., when they claimed that junk DNA was entirely consistent with non-sentient evolution.Originally Posted by Slartibartfas
ID is not philosophy but religion
This is where the creationists lose all credibility. Evolution is a fact of reality, like shadows. The only area of dispute is the mechanisms of evolution. Darwin proposed one, natural selection, and now 6 have been identified.
While the Theory of Shadows may be in dispute there is no disputing the existence of shadows - or evolution.
"No free government, or the blessings of liberty, can be preserved to any people but by a firm adherence to justice, moderation, temperance, frugality, and virtue; and by a frequent recurrence to fundamental principles."
-- Patrick Henry
"No free government, or the blessings of liberty, can be preserved to any people but by a firm adherence to justice, moderation, temperance, frugality, and virtue; and by a frequent recurrence to fundamental principles."
-- Patrick Henry
"No free government, or the blessings of liberty, can be preserved to any people but by a firm adherence to justice, moderation, temperance, frugality, and virtue; and by a frequent recurrence to fundamental principles."
-- Patrick Henry
"No free government, or the blessings of liberty, can be preserved to any people but by a firm adherence to justice, moderation, temperance, frugality, and virtue; and by a frequent recurrence to fundamental principles."
-- Patrick Henry
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