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Environmental Issues Environment, Global Warming, Pollution, Natural Resources, Alternative Energy

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Old 03-23-2007
Cato Cato is offline
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
The early earth was inhospitable.'
And yet it cooled. And something always survives, probably without even trying. We can try, and we probably wouldn't have to try that hard.

There is evidence of temperature increases on the order of 10F over the span of decades several times in earth's history. Some as early as 40,000 years ago (IIRC). Yet early Man survived that without the technology we have today. Every interglacial has seen temperature increase --> CO2 increase --> temperature decrease --> CO2 decrease. This says two things to me: 1) if anything is going to be called a precursor it's temperature - CO2 follows temperature, not the other way around, and 2) rising temperature + rising CO2 concentrations does not equal run-away feedback loop. If that were the case, then temperature would never have fallen while CO2 remained high.
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Old 03-23-2007
onon onon is offline
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

During interglacial periods they both follow each other. Temperature rise results in more co2 and more co2 results in more temperature rise. Amplification rather than runaway.
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Old 03-23-2007
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

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Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
Im not sure i understand you question.

What is the amplification factor of CO2? In other words, at our current level of CO2 in the atmoshpere, how much will that amplify the warming?

In other words, if there were two huge identical greenhouses (exact temperature and everything else) and one of them all of a sudden had 2x the CO2 as the other, how much more hotter (amplify) would this make the greenhouse compared to the one with 1/2 the CO2?


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Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
As far as i understand the theory, the possible cause of co2/methane release into the atmosphere from warming is the acidification of oceans and soil erosion. This would be a positive feedback loop. So in essence even if industrial emissions alone are not hugely significant, they might indeed be the trigger for such a feedback loop.
CO2 is also released into the atmosphere by decay of plant and animal matter, evaporaton of oceans, respiration (breathing), volcanic eruptions, and forest fires.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
The lag in co2 buildup from preceding temperature increases could possibly be explained by this - the earths position in its complicated cycles around the sun over 100 000 years caused the initial warming followed by the earth system itself emitting GHGs, leading to prolonged warming.

Andrew


When I think about the several hundred year lag of CO2 to temperature, I see a possible connection between how CO2 is produced and the lag: The earth heats up, more land is exposed due to ice melting, more plants and animals come into being, more CO2.

Kramer
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Old 03-23-2007
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

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Originally Posted by onon View Post
During interglacial periods they both follow each other. Temperature rise results in more co2 and more co2 results in more temperature rise. Amplification rather than runaway.
Still, if that's true, what causes the temperature to decrease when the CO2 level is at a maximum then?
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Old 03-23-2007
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Andrewl Andrewl is offline
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

Quote:
Originally Posted by kramer View Post

When I think about the several hundred year lag of CO2 to temperature, I see a possible connection between how CO2 is produced and the lag: The earth heats up, more land is exposed due to ice melting, more plants and animals come into being, more CO2.

Kramer
I think that is exactly what happens. You just described the greenhouse effect essentially.

Andrew
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Old 03-24-2007
daisym daisym is offline
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

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No, but I didn't make a statement to the contrary. Belief without proof is religion, Daisy. We're not having a religious discussion (according to you), we're having a science discussion.

Do you have proof of these claims?

If only you were equally critical with the failures of a CO2 driven atmosphere theory.

Well, thank God! I was really hoping the sun doesn't drive temperature on this planet. For a second there, I thought we were going to have problems. Now I know all our problems can be solved by simply controlling less than 1% of the gasses in the atmosphere.

And none of the articles you posted even attempted to prove that anthropogenic CO2 was a factor in warming.

No, thanks. I can't think of a bigger waste of my time. For the same reason I don't debate the existence of a supreme being.

In what way? What anthropogenic influences? What is the major influence? How much does it influence as a percentage of the total observed warming?

And yet much greater temperature increases, over much shorter time frames, never spelled doom for life on this planet. Never once has this planet passed some "tipping point" with uncontrollable feedback. But let's worry now.
I think the onus is on you to provide some kind of proof - it is YOU who is swimming against the tide of reputable scientific consensus.

The material is widely available, has been discussed at length in a number of reputable journals, without rebuttal.

If you have some genuine evidence that there anthropogenic factors do not influence the warming that we all know is happening on this planet, I ask you to bring it forward.

If there IS genuinely some other cause for what is happening now, then we need to understand THAT so we can address it.
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Old 03-24-2007
Cato Cato is offline
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

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I think the onus is on you to provide some kind of proof - it is YOU who is swimming against the tide of reputable scientific consensus.
Proof of what? The negative? You want me to prove that CO2 is not causing the planet to warm? How ridiculous.

I'm not the one making claims, Daisy, you are. Usually in science someone makes a claim and backs that up with some proof. So far, you've made several statements and have offered proof for none of them. This is religion.
Quote:
The material is widely available, has been discussed at length in a number of reputable journals, without rebuttal.
You mean, without rebuttal you care to read.
Quote:
If you have some genuine evidence that there anthropogenic factors do not influence the warming that we all know is happening on this planet, I ask you to bring it forward.
I never made that claim.
Quote:
If there IS genuinely some other cause for what is happening now, then we need to understand THAT so we can address it.
Why? Because an extra 1C every 100 years is deadly?
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Old 03-24-2007
onon onon is offline
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

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Originally Posted by jpsartre12 View Post
Still, if that's true, what causes the temperature to decrease when the CO2 level is at a maximum then?
If there are two aspects to the temperature rise - the primary forcing, and the co2 level (the amplification) then it only takes the primary forcing to fall to cause temperatures to drop, even if co2 is left at the same level.
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Old 03-24-2007
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

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Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
I think that is exactly what happens. You just described the greenhouse effect essentially.

Andrew
I described how CO2 is produced based on ice core graphs and my limited knowledge of climate science. What the ice core graphs fail to show is the greenhouse effect because the temperature rose hundreds of years before the CO2 increased. The greenhouse effect says when the CO2 rises, this will cause the temp to rise and it will which the ice core data doesn't show.

Kramer
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Albert Shanker, former president of the American Federation of Teachers
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Old 03-24-2007
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

Speaking of swindles, how come Al Gore wouldn't submit his testimony to the committee 48 hours in advance of his testifying on Capital Hill on global warming?

One would think that with the backing of the thousands of IPCC scientists (along with his oscar and Nobel peace prize nomination), he would have submitted it and been able to defend it.

This shows to me that he's afraid to be challanged by the data in his testimony. Or he can't back it up...


Kramer
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Albert Shanker, former president of the American Federation of Teachers
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Old 03-24-2007
DairyQueen DairyQueen is offline
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

Global warming saved our lives, there's no ice age anymore...
Dramatic temperature rising isn't our problem since there is none
All throughout history there where climatic variations.

But you might call the ozone layer a problem, none of today but one of tomorrow

I couldn't find anybody yet who could convincingly advertise UV radiations as especially healthy
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Old 03-25-2007
daisym daisym is offline
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

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Originally Posted by Cato View Post
Proof of what? The negative? You want me to prove that CO2 is not causing the planet to warm? How ridiculous.

I'm not the one making claims, Daisy, you are. Usually in science someone makes a claim and backs that up with some proof. So far, you've made several statements and have offered proof for none of them. This is religion.

You mean, without rebuttal you care to read.

I never made that claim.

Why? Because an extra 1C every 100 years is deadly?

I wonder if the AAAS Board statement (Dec 2006) is good enough for you?

It opens with:

Quote:
The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occuring now, and it is a growing threat to society. Accumulating data from across the globe reveal a wide array of effects: rapidly melting glaciers, increase in extreme weather, rising sea level, shifts in species ranges, and more. The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, a critical greenhouse gas, is higher than it has been for at least 650,000 years. The average temperature of the Earth is heading for levels not experienced for millions of years. Scientific predictions of the impacts of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels and deforestation match observed changes. As expected, intensification of droughts, heat waves, floods, wildfires and severe storms is occurring, with a mounting toll on vulnerable ecosystems and societies. These events are early warning signs of even more devastating damage to come, some of which will be irreversible.

Delaying actions to address climate change will increase the environmental and societal consequences as well as the costs. The longer we wait to tackle climate change, the harder and more expensive the task will be.
This paper was approved by the AAAS Board of Directors, Cato, who are all eminent scientists.

I am sure you are aware also Cato, that the AAAS is the world's largets scientific society.

If I am religious about this Cato - these are the high priests I listen to.

Who are your high priests?
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Old 03-25-2007
Cato Cato is offline
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

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Originally Posted by daisym View Post
I wonder if the AAAS Board statement (Dec 2006) is good enough for you?
No, it's not good enough for me, Daisy. See, I don't like it when people tell me what to think. I like to think for myself. I like people to have to prove to me the statements they make.
Quote:
This paper was approved by the AAAS Board of Directors, Cato, who are all eminent scientists.
So what? Just because "eminent scientists" say so doesn't make it truth, Daisy. Science is not done by vote. In fact, several statements in there are not only demonstrably false, but are also rejected by many AGW proponents.
Quote:
If I am religious about this Cato - these are the high priests I listen to.

Who are your high priests?
Well, that seals it, I guess. You used to be a reasonable person, Daisy. I don't know what happened. That bums me out.

My high priests are logic, reason, and the scientific method, Daisy.
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Old 03-25-2007
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Andrewl Andrewl is offline
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

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Originally Posted by kramer View Post
I described how CO2 is produced based on ice core graphs and my limited knowledge of climate science. What the ice core graphs fail to show is the greenhouse effect because the temperature rose hundreds of years before the CO2 increased. The greenhouse effect says when the CO2 rises, this will cause the temp to rise and it will which the ice core data doesn't show.

Kramer
The greenhouse effect is already in play at the time of the glacial and interglacial periods.

The greenhouse effect does not necessarily mean the temperature will rise, it depends on the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect is generally what climate scientists credit for keeping the earth at hospitable temperatures for ecosystems to evolve and persist over long periods of time.

What you are looking at in the ice core data is evidence that the glaciation and retreat of glaciers has a cause that is separate from the greenhouse effect. I.e., the sun, the earths orbit around the sun, etc....

What worries AGW theorists is that the earth will overheat to due to a heightened runaway greenhouse effect that coincides with an already natural warming. What happens as a result is not understood. One theory is that the earth will scorch from an extreme greenhouse effect, triggering positive feedback loops, not able to cool itself. Another theory is that earth will produce a negative feedback loop, resulting in rapid cooling. Other theories are that the consequences will be manageable and only insurance rates will rise.

I would prefer we did not experiment with it.

Andrew
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Old 03-25-2007
daisym daisym is offline
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Re: The Great Global Warming Swindle

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In fact, several statements in there are not only demonstrably false, but are also rejected by many AGW proponents.
great.

you point out which ones and we'll discuss those.
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