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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 07-10-2007
daisym daisym is offline
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No link between the sun and current warming trends

Several people on this forum have argued that the sun is the cause of warming - apparently this is not so ...over the last 20 years the sun's output has declined ....

Quote:
No sun link' to climate change
A new scientific study concludes that changes in the Sun's output cannot be causing modern-day climate change.

It shows that for the last 20 years, the Sun's output has declined, yet temperatures on Earth have risen.

It also shows that modern temperatures are not determined by the Sun's effect on cosmic rays, as has been claimed.


Writing in the Royal Society's journal Proceedings A, the researchers say cosmic rays may have affected climate in the past, but not the present.

"This should settle the debate," said Mike Lockwood from the UK's Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory, who carried out the new analysis together with Claus Froehlich from the World Radiation Center in Switzerland.

Dr Lockwood initiated the study partially in response to the TV documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle, broadcast on Britain's Channel Four earlier this year, which featured the cosmic ray hypothesis.

"All the graphs they showed stopped in about 1980, and I knew why, because things diverged after that," he told the BBC News website.

"You can't just ignore bits of data that you don't like," he said.

Full article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6290228.stm
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Old 07-11-2007
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ThorHammer ThorHammer is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

Quote:
Originally Posted by daisym View Post
Several people on this forum have argued that the sun is the cause of warming - apparently this is not so ...
seems to me the science is still out. You have some very learned people saying one thing, and then some other very learned people saying another.
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Old 07-11-2007
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Meridious Meridious is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

Global warming the biggest Myth since the "DDT kills" myth. And it is the biggest money-drain in history.

But don't fret...the Human-Induced-Global-Warming Enthusiasts are going to lose. The HIGW junk science is being exposed just as fast as they try to push it on the American people.

I hear more (the overwhelming majority here, IMO) people at the university and at my workplace laughing at the GW myth during conversation than I hear them trying to push the myth. That was not the case 2 years ago...or even a year ago. There was SO much "concern" back then. /chuckle

HIGW Enthusiasts try to make anyone who expresses a dissenting scientist's views into a pariah and a kook because they know very well that they are beginning to lose their popularity. And that is hurting them, as it does with "religious" propagandists. They are beginning to see the similarities between the zealous religious person trying to convert them and keep them from going to hell, and the HIGW propagandist jeering at them and calling them nuts for not "repenting" to their global warming propaganda and certain, looming death.

Al Gore, bless the old fool, is doing more to hurt the HIGW club than help it.

While it will hang around for a while, just like:

"The coming ice age"

"The cold war"

"DDT"

"Acid Rain"

It will eventually go the way of the dinosaur. As it should.
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Old 07-11-2007
Wlessard Wlessard is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

Just some thoughts that I have both heard and read.

1: Global Warming is a Theory - I forgot the exact wording but if there are errors or observed facts change noticeably the theory has to be thrown out and a new one put in its place. In the case of Global Warming there are enough contradictions in the theory that there has to be a new theory to fit the new facts.

2: How do you explain the Ice Caps melting on Mars? Why is the Red Planet warming up?

3: Greenlad was GREEN and very good for agriculture back when the Vikings settled it. That means the climate had to be warmer at that time. If this is true then the climate had to be much warmer than it is now.

4: A Global AVERAGE of temperature is not valid. You need to use the Median temperature.

5: When temperatures were starting to be recorded there were Dirt Roads and tops 10 story buildings of Brick and wood. Now there are miles and miles of Tar and Cement as well as Huge buildings of Steel and Concrete. The roads and buildings alone are heat sinks. As such they hold more heat in the cities than they did 100 years ago. Naturally any temperatures taken in the cities will be higher than those taken in the countryside. By using almost exclusively the city temperatures for comparison there is going to be a noticeable difference in temperature over the last 100 years that is not accounted for in regards to emissions.

There are a few others I have seen but I would like to see a scientific refutation of some of these statements. Proof with facts.
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Old 07-11-2007
Captain Trips Captain Trips is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wlessard View Post
Just some thoughts that I have both heard and read.

1: Global Warming is a Theory - I forgot the exact wording but if there are errors or observed facts change noticeably the theory has to be thrown out and a new one put in its place. In the case of Global Warming there are enough contradictions in the theory that there has to be a new theory to fit the new facts.
Man CAUSED global warming is the theory. It HAS been shown that Earth has always gone through it's OWN warming and cooling trends.

Mankinds overblown ego is making the man caused global warming theory of al gores seem acceptable to SOME.

Only some.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wlessard View Post
2: How do you explain the Ice Caps melting on Mars? Why is the Red Planet warming up?

3: Greenlad was GREEN and very good for agriculture back when the Vikings settled it. That means the climate had to be warmer at that time. If this is true then the climate had to be much warmer than it is now.

4: A Global AVERAGE of temperature is not valid. You need to use the Median temperature.

5: When temperatures were starting to be recorded there were Dirt Roads and tops 10 story buildings of Brick and wood. Now there are miles and miles of Tar and Cement as well as Huge buildings of Steel and Concrete. The roads and buildings alone are heat sinks. As such they hold more heat in the cities than they did 100 years ago. Naturally any temperatures taken in the cities will be higher than those taken in the countryside. By using almost exclusively the city temperatures for comparison there is going to be a noticeable difference in temperature over the last 100 years that is not accounted for in regards to emissions.

There are a few others I have seen but I would like to see a scientific refutation of some of these statements. Proof with facts.
Right now, the "earthies" are having a heydey with their man caused global warming idea.

Let them have their fun.

Then let HONEST scientists examine the issue more closely and give us a balanced presention of ALL the facts.

BTW, there IS no "consensus" among scientists that man caused global warming is a fact. This is only what the "earthies" like to claim to prop up their idea based on the hot air coming out of al gores neck
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Old 07-11-2007
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

I was in Las Vegas on the 4th of July, and the temperature was 124 degrees.

I'm pretty sure the sun had something to do with that...

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Old 07-11-2007
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

our weather is changing. no doubt about that. no matter what you want to call it, weather is going crazy.
global warming? dont know. dont care what its called. its just there. and its gonna get worse.
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Old 07-11-2007
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TheLastBoyScout TheLastBoyScout is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

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Originally Posted by Meridious View Post
And it is the biggest money-drain in history.
.
No, the biggest money drain in American history was WWII at 2 trillion dollars. The Iraq war is the second biggest at 700 billion.

For WWII, I'd say we got our money's worth. For Iraq, I'd like a refund...

How much is the global warming campaign costing us again?
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Old 07-11-2007
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TheLastBoyScout TheLastBoyScout is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

Quote:
Originally Posted by Beer View Post
our weather is changing. no doubt about that. no matter what you want to call it, weather is going crazy.
global warming? dont know. dont care what its called. its just there. and its gonna get worse.
Great point..... whether it's the Sun or CO2 or some combination thereof, we'd be stupid to sit idly by while the ice caps melt and our children fry.

Carbon taxes and other crap is bunk though. Effort needs to be placed on what we can do to consume the CO2 and produce oxygen on large levels like trees already do.... Effort and money needs to be put into researching scientific ways to proactively cool off our planet.
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Old 07-11-2007
Captain Trips Captain Trips is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

Quote:
Originally Posted by Beer View Post
our weather is changing. no doubt about that. no matter what you want to call it, weather is going crazy.
global warming? dont know. dont care what its called. its just there. and its gonna get worse.

As long as there have been people there have been people noticing and getting upset or worried about the weather.

Past peoples created Gods to assign weather events and patterns to.

Today we have some inventing a NEW thing to blame the weather on. Of course THIS one is constructed on gigantic human egotism.

Just more bitching about the weather :-)
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Old 07-11-2007
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kramer kramer is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

Quote:
Originally Posted by daisym View Post
Several people on this forum have argued that the sun is the cause of warming - apparently this is not so ...over the last 20 years the sun's output has declined ....




Full article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6290228.stm
Interesting how this flies directly in the face of measurements a few years ago that showed the sun's energy output has increased 0.05%/decade since the late 1970's.

Of course, the 'researcher' seems to have had a pre-determined conclusion on his mind based on what the BBC article said:
Quote:
Dr Lockwood initiated the study partially in response to the TV documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle, broadcast on Britain's Channel Four earlier this year, which featured the cosmic ray hypothesis.
"All the graphs they showed stopped in about 1980, and I knew why, because things diverged after that," he told the BBC News website.

"You can't just ignore bits of data that you don't like," he said.
There are also other science articles that show the sun at an 11,400 year high in some other category. And ice on Mars is also melting.

In addition, CO2 is a minor greenhouse gas and the vast majority of it is from nature. Methane is 21x more powerful than CO2 is and water vapor is something like 720x more powerful than CO2. Adding a few percent of a minor greenhouse gas doesn't seem like a big deal. That said, I do support alternative energy sources and think we should be working on developing them so that when oil starts getting scarce, we have a plan-B.

Kramer
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Old 07-12-2007
Wlessard Wlessard is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

I agree with the fact that Global Warming is not primarily due to human intervention. I have also noticed the Global Warming crowd has shifted from Warming to Global Climate Change since so much is coming out that Humans are pretty innefectual in causing the warming.

I remember in the 1970's growing up and everyone was talking about the new Ice Age coming. The biggest time for it was just after the Blizzard of 78 on the East Cost. 30 years and the Ice Age is over I guess.

From what I have read about CO2 there is always a huge increase in tree and plant growth with such an abundance of food for them.

Another thing that bugs me on this whole Climate Change is the last 2 years the hurricane center predicted huge hurricanes for the year and gas prices jumped in response. Even though last year it was proved wrong no one seemed to care too much.

As for the conservation thing I have nothing against conservation and lowering emissions but I do not want my government dictating to me what I have to do. I do not like being Micro Managed in my job and certainly not in my private life. I personally like the Idea of Bio-diesel for my Blazer and will be swapping in a diesel engine to convert to bio-diesel. At least it will be cheaper than gasoline.
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Old 07-12-2007
WildMan WildMan is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

Of course the sun causes global warming. Of all the nearby heat sources it is pretty well dominate.

But you cannot have sustained (vs transient) global warning without the greenhouse effect.

Further you can't have the greenhouse effect without greenhouse gases.

The significant gases are:
Water
Carbon Dioxide
Nitrous Oxide
Methane

The contribution of each gas to the effect depends on is ability to absorb infrared radiation, the quantity of the gas in the atmosphere and the dispersal of the gas in the atmosphere.

Water vapour molecules (not steam or clouds) are the greatest in quantity and each molecule has the highest ability to absorb IR. However localised concentrations in the atomosphere are changing over short time frames and the total amount of water vapour is unchanging. This means you might get local effects of temperature variation for brief time periods. However the total contribution due to water vapour alone will be unchanging over time.

Methane and nitrous oxides are present in large quantities and have a globally homogenous concentration dependant on production by nature and man. They also have a high capacity to absorb IR but the quantity is so low compared to other gases the net impact is minimal.

Carbon dioxide has everything about it which contributes to the greenhouse effect. It is the greenhouse gas with the second highest concentration. It's dispersal is homogeneous. It's capacity to absorb IR is second to water and way above the rest. The quantity can change through causes by man and nature.

The next nugget is that we have a measured increasing average global temperature trend alongside the current decline in solar radiation output.

Primary causes are the albedo of the earth's surface (excluding atmosphere) and the quantity of the gases. This is because the GHG's absorb the reflected radiation from the Earth and the more reflected the more the gases get. The more gases there are the more of it can be absorbed.

Albedo is increased by construction, land clearing, desertification and so on.

Where are the gases coming from? They're coming from all sources (except water) but most noticably from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
A warming atmosphere also promotes more natural GHG's being released such as methane in the thawing tundra and liberation from the warmer oceans.

It is the increase that is of concern not the total percentage quantity. And the increase in human contribution is large at some 25% for carbon dioxide and 150% for methane over 200 yrs. When the total greenhouse contribution of methane exceeds carbon dioxide then we can make farting bovines a priority.

The final nail is that we get so hot that the seas spend more time as vapour and cloud than waves. (That's after they first rise due to ice melting and thermal expansion). No amount of carbon dioxide reduction will stop the resultant thermal runaway once that happens. Just take a good look at Venus.

No link? It's all linked!

BTW: I haven't watched nor read any of Al Gore's material.

Last edited by WildMan; 07-12-2007 at 10:21 AM.
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Old 07-12-2007
Captain Trips Captain Trips is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wlessard View Post
I agree with the fact that Global Warming is not primarily due to human intervention. I have also noticed the Global Warming crowd has shifted from Warming to Global Climate Change since so much is coming out that Humans are pretty innefectual in causing the warming.
Yeah, now they're going to call it "climate change".

Like that'll make al gores false science, an easier pill to swallow

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wlessard View Post
I remember in the 1970's growing up and everyone was talking about the new Ice Age coming. The biggest time for it was just after the Blizzard of 78 on the East Cost. 30 years and the Ice Age is over I guess.

From what I have read about CO2 there is always a huge increase in tree and plant growth with such an abundance of food for them.

Another thing that bugs me on this whole Climate Change is the last 2 years the hurricane center predicted huge hurricanes for the year and gas prices jumped in response. Even though last year it was proved wrong no one seemed to care too much.
First they want to scare us about an ICE age. Then they want to scare us about an HEATING age.

But liberals will call CONSERVATIVES "fear mongers"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wlessard View Post
As for the conservation thing I have nothing against conservation and lowering emissions but I do not want my government dictating to me what I have to do. I do not like being Micro Managed in my job and certainly not in my private life. I personally like the Idea of Bio-diesel for my Blazer and will be swapping in a diesel engine to convert to bio-diesel. At least it will be cheaper than gasoline.
Yeah, I'm all for burning less of the petrol TOO actually.

First, it is NOT a limitless resource.

Second, we BUY a lot of it from an area of the world dominated by a religious idealogy that parts of want to DESTROY us. In other words we're, in part, FUNDING terrorist attacks against us.

Third, we ARE very wasteful with it. Does EVERYONE need a gigantic truck or SUV to drive to work alone in ?

Fourth, we may BE contributing to the Earths warming cycle in this period. The real science isn't IN on that yet.
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Old 07-12-2007
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Meridious Meridious is offline
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Re: No link between the sun and current warming trends

Anyone recall "global cooling" also known as the "coming ice age" that propagandists tried to cause a panic with in the late 70s?

Talk about a scientific theory shift.

180 degrees.

/chuckle

Same fear-mongering, different temperature.
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