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Old 07-30-2007
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Lightbulb Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

I came across this article today Study: Rise in storms tied to warming - Climate Change - MSNBC.com and it made me think:
  • If there is a such thing as global warming, would there be such a thing as global cooling?
  • If there is a such thing as global cooling, would that mean that climate patterns are really cyclical?
  • If you believe it is cyclical, does that mean you believe in both global warming and global cooling?
  • Is it possible to believe in global warming or global cooling without believing in the other?
  • Could it really be sloppy science since climate records may not actually go back far enough to determine an actual pattern?
  • If Earth is estimated to be 4.5 Billion years old, how many years of record keeping are necessary to determine actual climate patterns?

Remember Worries About Global Cooling? - Newsweek Technology - MSNBC.com
World Climate Report » The Coming Global Cooling?
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Last edited by Crystal; 07-30-2007 at 11:50 AM.
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Old 07-30-2007
Wlessard Wlessard is offline
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

If global warming is something we as the Human Civilization are causing then how do you explain things in history like Greenland. It was a LUSH green island that was capable of growing crops. The Vikings settled there and did just that.

Currently Greenland is a ice covered land that is almost devoid of any agriculture that I am aware of.

Until the world warms enough that you can grow crops on Greenland successfully like they did a few hundred years ago and then warms up even more I cannot accept that humans are causing this.
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Old 07-30-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wlessard View Post
If global warming is something we as the Human Civilization are causing then how do you explain things in history like Greenland. It was a LUSH green island that was capable of growing crops. The Vikings settled there and did just that.

Currently Greenland is a ice covered land that is almost devoid of any agriculture that I am aware of.

Until the world warms enough that you can grow crops on Greenland successfully like they did a few hundred years ago and then warms up even more I cannot accept that humans are causing this.
The climate has changed very much on many occasions in it's history. The difference is that the kind of changes that happened over thousands of years are now happening over hundreds of years.
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Old 07-30-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

Would the following suggest that climate is cyclical?
Medieval Warm Period - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Little Ice Age - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



Thermometer-based records began around 1850 and sure, it does show a warming trend, but are 157 years of records enough when the Earth is 4.5 Billion years old?
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Old 07-30-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crystal View Post
I came across this article today Study: Rise in storms tied to warming - Climate Change - MSNBC.com and it made me think:
  • If there is a such thing as global warming, would there be such a thing as global cooling?
  • Yes.


    Quote:
  • If there is a such thing as global cooling, would that mean that climate patterns are really cyclical?
  • It could mean that climate patterns are cyclical, but it does not prove that climate patterns are cylical. Yes, as the earth travels about the sun, and the sun travels about the galaxy, there is a predictable cycle called the Milankovitch cycle. This is thought to cause the major glacial and interglacial periods.

    But, there are different climate periods in earths history that have never repeated themselves.

    Its important not to think of the earth as a static system, where the climate is completely cyclical and predictable. The earths climate has evolved and changed from the beginning four billion years ago. It is a self regulating system analogous to a living body (without the sentience). A living body goes through cycles and displays predictable patterns, but it also has significant periods that never repeat, like puberty and menopause.

    For example:

    The vast majority of earths climate history as never had to contend with the effect of widespread industrial civilization. This is a new factor in the climate that has never been part of any previous cycle.

    The earth is currently middle aged, and we are not sure if the patterns we detect from the past are necessarily destined to repeat themselves in the future.


    Quote:
  • Is it possible to believe in global warming or global cooling without believing in the other?
  • It is entirely possible that one could cause the other. Rapid warming could theoretically cause a massive negative feedback loop that could potentially lead to cooling.


    Quote:
  • Could it really be sloppy science since climate records may not actually go back far enough to determine an actual pattern?
  • It is pretty unlikely there is a static pattern that would repeat itself over the entire 8-10 billion year lifespan of planet earth. All the evidence suggests that there is not.

    Quote:
  • If Earth is estimated to be 4.5 Billion years old, how many years of record keeping are necessary to determine actual climate patterns?
We know enough that suggests there are some patterns like the major ice ages over a certain time period, but like i said, over the entire physical history of the earth there is no static pattern, there is growth and evolution and dynamic unpredictable changes. The challenge right now is to discover exactly what influence human industry is having on this system and what the consequences will be.

Andrew
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Old 07-30-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wlessard View Post
If global warming is something we as the Human Civilization are causing then how do you explain things in history like Greenland. It was a LUSH green island that was capable of growing crops. The Vikings settled there and did just that.

Currently Greenland is a ice covered land that is almost devoid of any agriculture that I am aware of.

Until the world warms enough that you can grow crops on Greenland successfully like they did a few hundred years ago and then warms up even more I cannot accept that humans are causing this.
Greenland was named as such by Erik the Red, who was being ironical...

Quote:
Originally Posted by wiki
There are two written sources on the origin of the name, in the The Book of Icelanders (Íslendingabók), an historical work dealing with early Icelandic history from the 12th century, and in the medieval Icelandic saga, The Saga of Eric the Red (Eiriks saga rauđa), which is about the Norse settlement in Greenland and the story of Eric the Red in particular. Both sources write: "He named the land Greenland, saying that people would be eager to go there if it had a good name."
Apparently, he fooled you as well In spite of the attractive name, I don't think anyone was growing coffee or jalapenos in balmy tropical climes on an island covered almost entirely with a giant slab of ice that's hundreds of thousands of years old.
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Old 07-30-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crystal View Post
I came across this article today Study: Rise in storms tied to warming - Climate Change - MSNBC.com and it made me think:
  • If there is a such thing as global warming, would there be such a thing as global cooling?
  • If there is a such thing as global cooling, would that mean that climate patterns are really cyclical?
  • If you believe it is cyclical, does that mean you believe in both global warming and global cooling?
  • Is it possible to believe in global warming or global cooling without believing in the other?
  • Could it really be sloppy science since climate records may not actually go back far enough to determine an actual pattern?
  • If Earth is estimated to be 4.5 Billion years old, how many years of record keeping are necessary to determine actual climate patterns?

Remember Worries About Global Cooling? - Newsweek Technology - MSNBC.com
World Climate Report » The Coming Global Cooling?

source

And the above link can be found on the following NASA page:
source
...so it's not from some right wing hack website.

Regarding the "Coming Global Cooling," some scientists are saying sunspot activity is decreasing and this will have a cooling effect on the earth. There is also correlation between sunspot activity and temperatures on the earth, both sea surface temp and air temp. And the sun is hotter now than it has been in the last 11,400 years.
source

I'm a skeptic when it comes to the claim that humans are causing the warming with our release of CO2.

Kramer
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Old 07-30-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

Quote:
Originally Posted by drgoodtrips View Post
Greenland was named as such by Erik the Red, who was being ironical...



Apparently, he fooled you as well In spite of the attractive name, I don't think anyone was growing coffee or jalapenos in balmy tropical climes on an island covered almost entirely with a giant slab of ice that's hundreds of thousands of years old.


Actually the Scandinavians thrived there (on the southern part of the island which was lush and warm) for awhile farming and such for centuries. They disappeared as a result of famine in the 1400s. Jared Diamond in collapse uses this as an example, along with the easter islanders, of how a civilization can exploit itself to death, mainly by deforestation and overuse of limited arable land combined with natural climate change.

Andrew
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Last edited by Andrewl; 07-30-2007 at 04:20 PM.
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Old 07-30-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

Quote:
Originally Posted by partofme View Post
The difference is that the kind of changes that happened over thousands of years are now happening over hundreds of years.
Okay so its expedited at most, but still the same thing even if its happenning faster, at some point i'm sure it'll slow down and speed up again at a later point, its just the way weather cycles work.

No such thing as global warming.
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Old 07-30-2007
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iTaliAN_ICe iTaliAN_ICe is offline
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

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Originally Posted by Traveler View Post
No such thing as global warming.
Well there is, but it's part of a cycle and not completely caused by us... as certain former vice presidents would have us believe.
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Old 07-31-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

That's how I see it:

1) There are good arguments that man made global warming exists. There are also arguments that it doesn't exist. But it's practically and logically impossible to verify or prove either of those theories. We also can't be sure about the long term effects of global warming. There are lot of worst case scenarios, but nobody can really seriously predict what will happen.

2) Even if we can't be sure about what will happen, the credible risk of potentially very serious consequences is good enough reason to address the problem.

3) Partisanship is not useful in either direction. Hysteria and blind actionism are just as foolish as ignorance and denial.

4) The real question is what sensible measures should be taken to address the (potential) problem. IMHO the most sensible measures are to increase efficiency, conserve energy and to promote the use of renewable energy sources. This may be more costly and require some changes of our lifestyle. But it also has postive effects. Not everything makes sense. But I don't see what would be wrong about reducing pollution and reducing the dependence on oil. Alternative technologies also not necessarily cost jobs or harm the economy but also create new business and new jobs.

Conclusion: We should take the problem serious but not get hysterical about it. There are a lot of sensible measures that can and should be taken that even make sense if you "don't believe" in global warming.

Last edited by Malvolio; 07-31-2007 at 04:35 AM.
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Old 07-31-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

Quote:
Originally Posted by iTaliAN_ICe View Post
Well there is, but it's part of a cycle and not completely caused by us... as certain former vice presidents would have us believe.
It was strange but when Gore was talking to Adam Boulten a few weeks ago he said to Adam that (and i quote): "I lose all Objectivity when talking about George Bush". That was in refference to Global warming being the fault of the current administration.
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Old 07-31-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

i believe there is a effect to the climate by the way we have lived. BUt i do not think it is a climate in crisis nor is it time for a SOS
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Old 07-31-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
The challenge right now is to discover exactly what influence human industry is having on this system and what the consequences will be.
Well, the greatest challenge seems to be to avoid being fooled, - either it's by Eric the Red or by more concurrent agents with other things to sell.
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Old 07-31-2007
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Re: Global warming, global cooling, or sloppy science?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Traveler View Post
Okay so its expedited at most, but still the same thing even if its happenning faster, at some point i'm sure it'll slow down and speed up again at a later point, its just the way weather cycles work.

No such thing as global warming.
Damn, and I was listening to the scientists with all those pesky credentials on the subject.
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