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Old 08-03-2007
daisym daisym is offline
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Floods

I'm not going to say all the floods we've been having around the globe are caused by global warming - in fact IMHO it may be part of a natural cycle that occurs roughly every 200 years - and the effects of this cycle have been made far worse by various changes we have made to the environment.

Of course - it IS possible its GW - its certainly been predicted that flooding - and displacement of up to a biliion peple through flooding - is a likely impact of GW, and some of the variations in the Gulf stream and other normal patterns are consistent with the predictions of GW models ...

but in any case - the sheer number of major flood events around the world in the last few months has been staggering.

I've listed some here - and there are others that I know of too ....

The impact of these floods - the humanitarian crisis of hundreds of millions of people displaced, not to mention crop damage - is likely to have impacts for some time to come -

maybe we need to start thinking about how this will effect us on a global level too ... here in Australia we will have higher food prices, but we'll be able to get by with no major adjustments - but what will be the impact on poorer nations?

For those interested - here is some information on floods that have been occuring around the world over the last few months:

Quote:
Millions evacuated as floods sweep south Asia (August 3, 2007)

Monsoon floods have forced almost 20 million people out of their homes in northern India, Bangladesh and Nepal.

The disaster management secretary in Bihar, Manoj Srivastava, says his state has never experienced floods like this.

"This flood has been unprecedented - [people] who are even 80 years old say they haven't seen such incessant rainfall for such a long period," he said.

"Many of the worst affected districts have received about 250 to 300 per cent more rainfall than the average."
Quote:
Floods hit South Africa (July 31, 2007)

Severe flooding has inundated shanty towns around Cape Town and up to 40,000 people have been forced from squatter camps, while emergency services are struggling to provide disaster relief and are bracing for further flooding.
Quote:
200 million affected by China's floods: Red Cross (Jul 30, 2007)
"Over the past two months, more than 200 million people have been affected and over 500 have been killed nationwide by some of the worst flooding to hit the country in the last 10 years," the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said in a statement.
Quote:
Thousands homeless after Nepal floods (Jul 27, 2007)
Local media report around 2,500 houses have been washed away in Nepal's southern plains, forcing residents to flee to higher grounds after week-long heavy rains.

Officials say floods and landslides have killed about 40 people in Nepal since June, when the annual monsoon rains began.

"The seasonal monsoon trough lies almost parallel to the foot of the Himalayas, causing more than normal rainfall in Nepal," an official at the weather forecasting office, Shiva Nepal, said.

Landslides and floods are common in Nepal during the monsoon season, which continues through to September and often affects huge swathes of agricultural land in the mostly mountainous country.

The United Nations says natural disasters in 2006 and 2007 severely hurt crop production, leaving more than half of Nepal's 75 districts with food shortages.

It says Nepal faced a food grain deficit of 225,000 tonnes for 2006/07, compared with 23,000 tonnes the previous year.
Quote:
More than 100 dead after Indonesian flooding (Jul 27, 2007)
An official in Indonesia says the death toll from devastating floods and landslides on the country s eastern Sulawesi island has risen to 107, as aid distribution to survivors gains pace. Officials have said at least 45,000 people have been affected by the floods, which have hit in an area known for rampant deforestation.
Quote:
England battles worst floods for 60 years (Jul 25, 2007)
Emergency workers battled to hold back overflowing rivers after Britain s worst floods in 60 years engulfed towns and villages and cut off water supplies to hundreds of thousands of people. Email. England battles worst floods for 60 years.
Quote:
Scores killed in Pakistan flood (Jul 22, 2007)
District Mayor Sardar Tariqullah says the floods destroyed several hamlets in Dir, 320 kilometres north-west of the capital, Islamabad. Floods unleashed by a tropical cyclone and monsoon rains in the south and south-west have claimed over 200 lives and affected 1.6 million people.
Quote:
'Thousands homeless' after Burma floods (July 9,2007)
State media in Burma say thousands of people are homeless after floods swept through the centre of the country, washing out bridges, closing schools and forcing a suspension in rail service. Thousands homeless after Burma floods.
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Nearly 1m stranded in Indian floods (July 8 2007)
Authorities say floods in eastern India have left nearly a million people stranded, as the nationwide death toll from torrential monsoon rains hit 655.

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$7m aid for Vic (Australia) flood victims (July 6, 2007)
The Victorian and Federal governments have announced a joint $7 million flood recovery package for Gippsland in south-east Victoria.
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UN offers aid as 600 die in South Asia rains (july 3, 2007)
The United Nations and other agencies have offered aid and helicopters to Pakistan after floods unleashed by a cyclone and days of torrential rain which affected 1.5 million people.
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Floods kill 140 in India (June 26, 2007)
Floods have hit south India, leaving more than 140 people dead
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Three dead as floods hit northern England (june 26, 2007)
Three people are dead and hundreds stranded as torrential downpours caused floods and widespread chaos across northern England.
Quote:
Flash flooding reported around Sydney (june 16,2007)
Wild weather is lashing Sydney and other coastal areas of New South Wales, damaging homes and causing localised flash flooding.
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Bangladesh flood death toll nears 130 (june 13)
floods. landslide. Rescuers have found 20 more bodies buried under mud in the Bangladesh port city of Chittagong, taking the total number of flood-related deaths to nearly 130.
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China predicts further downpours after 71 die (june 12)
Torrential rain has killed at least 71 people in floods, house collapses and rockslides across southern China, with more heavy rain predicted for much of this week, state media says. We ve got experience of floods, but I ve never known a flood like this, Zhong Shizhan, a resident of Mei county in Guangdong province, was quoted as saying
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Floodwaters force more evacuations (New South Wales - Australia) (june 10)
We ask that people don t enter floodwaters at all, we ve already had people die during these floods and we really don t want anybody else injured or possibly even Prime Minister John Howard says he is liaising closely with NSW Premier Morris Iemma to ensure residents affected by the storms and floods have access to every available resource.
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Thousands homeless after flooding in Sri Lanka (June 5)
More than 125,000 people have been driven out of their homes and 16 killed following flash floods in the Sri Lankan capital and neighbouring areas, officials have said. floods. sri-lanka.
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Flash Flood kills 27 in Thailand (April 15)
At least 27 people have been killed and many more are missing after flash floods swept over two waterfalls in southern Thailand. Many people were swimming when flash floods swept over the waterfalls, said a local disaster prevention official.
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Quake hits Afghanistan, scores dead in floods (April 4)
The United Nations said up to 25,000 people had been affected by floods and avalanches across the country and it was distributing 350,000 tons of food.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 08-03-2007
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JHC JHC is offline
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Re: Floods

Is this unusual? Is there any way to tell?
I know it is quite common to have flooding with horrific consequences in many of the general areas listed.
The flooding in England surprised me as does the flooding in Australia, (which did not make the news here).
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 08-05-2007
daisym daisym is offline
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Re: Floods

Quote:
Originally Posted by JHC View Post
Is this unusual? Is there any way to tell?
I know it is quite common to have flooding with horrific consequences in many of the general areas listed.
The flooding in England surprised me as does the flooding in Australia, (which did not make the news here).
The flooding here was major - ad it occurred in other states too - although not as bad ...

as to whether these things are normal (they weren't seen as normal here - but since this is supposedly 'a land of droughts and flooding rain' I suspect they are happen more often than we realize) it depends ... certainly some of the people alking to the media said things like 'this has never happened before' or their were comments such as 'the worst flooding in 60 years/80 years' ... so it depends on what you mean by normal.

certainly the massive numbers of people affected are abnormally high - but as I said that is often associated with land use - which has begun to change a great deal in recent years - so if we get '50 year' floods as part of a normal cycle, and then we build something like the three rivers dam (in China) sometime in the last couple of decades we are going to see 'abnormal' effects of what may be a normal phenomenon.

From what I have seen of weather patters, some of the meteorologocal activity is following 'abnormal' paths (such as the Gulf Stream being more southerly this year than normal) but we have no way at this point of knowing whether this is part of a normal cycle.

I do think however that we need to be aware of the potential for these cycles to occur, because over the last 800 years these cycles have contributed to population crashes (a cycle around the 13th century lead to massive food shortages in Europe which, along with the black plague, caused a population crash that devastated Europe - the same cycle mayhave been responsible also for the destruction of several central American cultures).

I guess to me whether its related to Climate Change or not is not the issue - its the fact that we need to be aware that cycles like this occur if we are to plan massive infrastructure programmes, and if we are to look at land use, water and food supplies in a sustainable way.
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