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Old 11-01-2007
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Meridious Meridious is offline
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An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

It is pretty indicative of the left-wing media to completely ignore this, while focusing on Algore and his "The earth will die in 20 years" bullshit.

I am sure this scientist will lose his post, any grants he had, and be declared a deviant homosexual and closeted pedophile by the left as soon as this begins to get attention from other media outlets.

Typical

Quote:
U.N. Scientist Rejects Nobel Prize Share, Denounces Climate Alarmism
Photo of Matthew Sheffield.
By Matthew Sheffield | November 1, 2007 - 09:46 ET

Has the global warming alarmism movement hit its apex? Maybe so.

In recent weeks, we've seen a resurgence of hard scientists who have come out strongly against the warm-mongers, the latest of which is Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change member John R. Christy. In an op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal, Christy tells the world that not only does he believe it's unproven that humans cause global warming, he's refusing his "share" of the Nobel Peace Prize that he was awarded because it was based on a misunderstanding of science.

An excerpt from this must-read op-ed:

I've had a lot of fun recently with my tiny (and unofficial) slice of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But, though I was one of thousands of IPCC participants, I don't think I will add "0.0001 Nobel Laureate" to my resume.

The other half of the prize was awarded to former Vice President Al Gore, whose carbon footprint would stomp my neighborhood flat. But that's another story. Large icebergs in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Winter sea ice around the continent set a record maximum last month.
Story Continues Below Ad ↓

Both halves of the award honor promoting the message that Earth's temperature is rising due to human-based emissions of greenhouse gases. The Nobel committee praises Mr. Gore and the IPCC for alerting us to a potential catastrophe and for spurring us to a carbonless economy.

I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time.

There are some of us who remain so humbled by the task of measuring and understanding the extraordinarily complex climate system that we are skeptical of our ability to know what it is doing and why. As we build climate data sets from scratch and look into the guts of the climate system, however, we don't find the alarmist theory matching observations. (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite data we analyze at the University of Alabama in Huntsville does show modest warming -- around 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit per century, if current warming trends of 0.25 degrees per decade continue.)

It is my turn to cringe when I hear overstated-confidence from those who describe the projected evolution of global weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially when I consider how difficult it is to accurately predict that system's behavior over the next five days.

Mother Nature simply operates at a level of complexity that is, at this point, beyond the mastery of mere mortals (such as scientists) and the tools available to us. As my high-school physics teacher admonished us in those we-shall-conquer-the-world-with-a-slide-rule days, "Begin all of your scientific pronouncements with 'At our present level of ignorance, we think we know . . .'"

I haven't seen that type of climate humility lately. Rather I see jump-to-conclusions advocates and, unfortunately, some scientists who see in every weather anomaly the specter of a global-warming apocalypse. Explaining each successive phenomenon as a result of human action gives them comfort and an easy answer.

Others of us scratch our heads and try to understand the real causes behind what we see. We discount the possibility that everything is caused by human actions, because everything we've seen the climate do has happened before. Sea levels rise and fall continually. The Arctic ice cap has shrunk before. One millennium there are hippos swimming in the Thames, and a geological blink later there is an ice bridge linking Asia and North America.

One of the challenges in studying global climate is keeping a global perspective, especially when much of the research focuses on data gathered from spots around the globe. Often observations from one region get more attention than equally valid data from another.

Read his entire Op Ed here

Update 11:16. Eric Scheie:

What Christy has done amounts to high treason, if not outright apostasy.

Fortunately, the global warming alarmists don't issue fatwas or behead people, so I think he won't suffer the extreme penalty.

Update 15:25. I like the Anchoress's comments here:

It occurs to me that there is a delicious irony playing out before our very eyes, and no one seems to have spotted it, and here it is:

President Bush, using dubious (but largely agreed-upon) intelligence, and inspired by his view - a view some would call “alarmist” - that terrorism is the greatest threat to humanity life and liberty on the planet, went to the UN and called for international movement to depose Saddam Hussein and engage Al Qaeda in a ground war. Some say Bush brooked no debate and suggested that dissent was “unpatriotic.” Those opposed to the war, both outside of the press and from within, cry “why did the press not ask more questions? Why did they simply go along with what Bush said?”

Al Gore, using dubious (but somewhat agreed upon) intelligence, and inspired by his view - a view some would call “alarmist” - that global warming is MAN MADE and the greatest threat to humanity on the planet, has traveled the globe calling for international movement and legislation that will threaten human liberty and whole economies. He refuses to debate, and suggests the press not report upon dissent. Some of his supporters suggest that that dissent on the issue is akin to “holocaust denial.” Those who take a differing view are now crying, “why will the press not ask more questions? Why are they simply going along with what Gore says?”

The difference between the two, of course, is that the press did engage in debate over the Iraq war, they did question it - although admittedly, probably not as strongly as they might have. The press does not engage in debate over Man Made Global Warming, even though the the models, which do not take something as basic as precipitation into their calculations, is unsettled and the science is admittedly complex.

As per usual, there's more to her post, in this case, a discussion about how evangelical Christians are viewing global warming as an issue.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 11-02-2007
Captain Trips Captain Trips is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

Yes, the MSM gives us propaganda on an almost daily basis in support of al gores idiocy.

And they consistently IGNORE and fail to REPORT stories of the many scientists that don't support al gores stupidity.

What is endlessly amusing are those that will tell us that the MSM is in no way BIASED

Who was it that coined the very true phrase "Liberalism is a mental disorder" ?

Whoever it was certainly had it right on the $$ :-)
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Old 11-05-2007
onon onon is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

Christy has been a skeptic for ages and hasn't lost his position. Seems a bit misleading for the article to imply that he's newly "converted" or something.
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Old 11-05-2007
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Andrewl Andrewl is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

Does this wipe out all the science that indicates recent global warming is a concern, that it is caused by human activities? Can we all relax now and ignore all the science?

Andrew
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Old 11-05-2007
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kramer kramer is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
Does this wipe out all the science that indicates recent global warming is a concern, that it is caused by human activities? Can we all relax now and ignore all the science?

Andrew
I'm still trying to understand how we are also responsible for the heating on mars which started at almost the same time as the earth started warming and by about the same temperature increase. Once this is explained to me, I need someone to explain how the nice graphs of temp and CO2 from ice core data in Al Gore's movie don't mention that the temp changes hundreds of years before the CO2 changes.

Kramer
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Old 11-05-2007
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Andrewl Andrewl is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

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Originally Posted by kramer View Post
I'm still trying to understand how we are also responsible for the heating on mars which started at almost the same time as the earth started warming and by about the same temperature increase. Once this is explained to me, I need someone to explain how the nice graphs of temp and CO2 from ice core data in Al Gore's movie don't mention that the temp changes hundreds of years before the CO2 changes.

Kramer
Ok. First one has to explain what is warming mars and earth at the same time. The skeptic theory is the sun. But as i have already shown in previos threads the sun's irradiance has actually leveled off and decreased since the 50's and it continues that trend to this very day. The warming on mars and earth beagn in the 70s. Obviously the sun is not the cuplrit.

So if mars is warming what is causing it? According tot this Nature article there have been an increase in 'planet darkening' storms over the last ~30 years.

Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars : Abstract : Nature

This changes the albedo of mars and causes it absorb more heat. Albedo is how much sunlight is reflected from a surface. A bright surface reflects more heat, a dark surface absorbs more heat. This is the best explanation we have for mars warming. There is no evidence at all of a single cause for the warming on both the earth and mars so the warming on earth must be caused by something else (not the sun and not the albedo of mars).

Your second argument refers to the co2/temperature lag recorded in the antarctic ice core samples. The milankovitch cycle (changes in the earths orbit around the sun) begins to warm the southern hemisphere before there is any release of CO2. But the amount of warming caused by the variability in the earths orbit is not sufficient to cause the amount of warming that is recored in the climate record (the amount required to end an ice age). So, we need an explanation for what amplified the warming caused by variability in the earths orbit around the sun (milankovitch cycle), and this is most likely the release of CO2 from the warming oceans in what is referred to as a positive feedback. This increase in atmospheric CO2 causes further warming which is sufficient to bring the earth out of an ice age. Here is the interesting part, the time it takes for the solubility of CO2 in the ocean to fall enough to release the CO2 is approx. 800 years - which just happens to be the amount of lag recorded in the ice cores. Here is another interesting fact - the earths orbit is not currently in a cycle that would warm be warming the earth, in fact we should be getting cooler. Wow.

In conclusion, the warming on both earth and mars cannot be explained by one single case, the warming on mars actually has a perfectly good mars centered explanation. The CO2/temperature lag is actually expected in our understanding of the earths climate; it does not disprove anthropogenic global warming at all. In fact if should give us serious pause to consider the power of feedback loops in the climate and what consequences our activities might have.


Andrew
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Old 11-06-2007
Captain Trips Captain Trips is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

That would be an impressive write up if it wasn't so obviously incomplete and the information specifically cherry picked.

By YOU.

Go back to studying the issue.
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Old 11-06-2007
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

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Originally Posted by Captain Trips View Post
That would be an impressive write up if it wasn't so obviously incomplete and the information specifically cherry picked.

By YOU.

Go back to studying the issue.

Please tell us all what i missed. Im curious. And if i did miss anything important please enlighten us.

Why the hell would you right such a post and leave us all hanging like this? Come on, don't be a twirp, im eager for more info.

Andrew
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Old 11-07-2007
Captain Trips Captain Trips is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
Please tell us all what i missed. Im curious. And if i did miss anything important please enlighten us.

Why the hell would you right such a post and leave us all hanging like this? Come on, don't be a twirp, im eager for more info.

Andrew
Anyone can impress themselves with cherry picked bits and peices of an issue. An issue that is much more complex and, as yet, beyond our fully understanding. Fool themselves into thinking they really know and understand it.

I've gone round-n-round with this global warming "crisis" we've created in our culture(s) enough.

You ask me to "please enlighten us."

That's just it. This issue is still under much study and scrutiny. To draw conclusions this early is meaningless.

As for enlightening "us", I'm still in the process of enlightening MYSELF (as you should be). We're going to have to be patient.

Al Gores foolish little propaganda film might have had ONE good effect at least. That is to encourage more study and REAL scientific application towards the study of climate, climate change and whether or not, and how LARGE the effects humans actually HAVE on the planets climate. If this study can be done without humans silly EGOS bending the results (as we see a lot of in this particular one) we'll get closer to the realities of what is going on. It won't be quick and simple to explain or understand either. You cannot solve a three variable equation if you choose to completely ignore two variables. By choice OR by ignorance.

Much "enlightening" is yet to be done :-)
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Old 11-07-2007
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Andrewl Andrewl is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Trips View Post
Anyone can impress themselves with cherry picked bits and peices of an issue. An issue that is much more complex and, as yet, beyond our fully understanding. Fool themselves into thinking they really know and understand it.

I've gone round-n-round with this global warming "crisis" we've created in our culture(s) enough.

You ask me to "please enlighten us."

That's just it. This issue is still under much study and scrutiny. To draw conclusions this early is meaningless.

As for enlightening "us", I'm still in the process of enlightening MYSELF (as you should be). We're going to have to be patient.

Al Gores foolish little propaganda film might have had ONE good effect at least. That is to encourage more study and REAL scientific application towards the study of climate, climate change and whether or not, and how LARGE the effects humans actually HAVE on the planets climate. If this study can be done without humans silly EGOS bending the results (as we see a lot of in this particular one) we'll get closer to the realities of what is going on. It won't be quick and simple to explain or understand either. You cannot solve a three variable equation if you choose to completely ignore two variables. By choice OR by ignorance.

Much "enlightening" is yet to be done :-)
Wow. You put lots of words and characters in that post and it amounted to nothing more that partisan drivel. You are hardly worth the effort of this sentence...

Andrew
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Old 11-07-2007
Captain Trips Captain Trips is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

Yah, uh huh. I put a lot of "words and characters". Here's what you seem to have really wanted:

drivel drivel


drivel drivel

There are your characters. That you must have been imagining in my previous post # 9.

Oh yeah. Here's some words:

You are hardly worth the effort of this reply

What ? Have you decided it's time to turn this into a contest of who can make a bigger ass of themselves ?

I guess that's easier than admitting I'm right when I say:

This issue is still under much study and scrutiny. To draw conclusions this early is meaningless.

and

Al Gores foolish little propaganda film might have had ONE good effect at least. That is to encourage more study and REAL scientific application towards the study of climate, climate change and whether or not, and how LARGE the effects humans actually HAVE on the planets climate. If this study can be done without humans silly EGOS bending the results (as we see a lot of in this particular one) we'll get closer to the realities of what is going on. It won't be quick and simple to explain or understand either. You cannot solve a three variable equation if you choose to completely ignore two variables. By choice OR by ignorance.
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Old 11-07-2007
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Andrewl Andrewl is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Trips View Post
Yah, uh huh. I put a lot of "words and characters". Here's what you seem to have really wanted:

drivel drivel


drivel drivel

There are your characters. That you must have been imagining in my previous post # 9.

Oh yeah. Here's some words:

You are hardly worth the effort of this reply

What ? Have you decided it's time to turn this into a contest of who can make a bigger ass of themselves ?

I guess that's easier than admitting I'm right when I say:

This issue is still under much study and scrutiny. To draw conclusions this early is meaningless.

and

Al Gores foolish little propaganda film might have had ONE good effect at least. That is to encourage more study and REAL scientific application towards the study of climate, climate change and whether or not, and how LARGE the effects humans actually HAVE on the planets climate. If this study can be done without humans silly EGOS bending the results (as we see a lot of in this particular one) we'll get closer to the realities of what is going on. It won't be quick and simple to explain or understand either. You cannot solve a three variable equation if you choose to completely ignore two variables. By choice OR by ignorance.


***Yawn*** Let me know when you want to actually discuss something besides Al Gore. You have yet to rebut my post. And i seriously doubt you are capable of such a thing. Instead you resort to blabbermouth drivel more suited to an elementary school. Are you capable of even making a rational argument?

Andrew
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Old 11-07-2007
Captain Trips Captain Trips is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
***Yawn*** Let me know when you want to actually discuss something besides Al Gore. You have yet to rebut my post. And i seriously doubt you are capable of such a thing. Instead you resort to blabbermouth drivel more suited to an elementary school. Are you capable of even making a rational argument?

Andrew
You have yet to create a post that is worthy of rebutal. You'd rather post obviously incomplete and specifically cherry picked information.

Like al gore, you're drawing conclusions from incomplete information.

THEN you resort to blabbermouth drivel more suited to an elementary school. Are you capable of even making a rational argument ?

***Yawn***

I'm sure others are mildly entertained by this useless back-n-forth by you and I LOL

...Maybe not.
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Old 11-07-2007
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kramer kramer is offline
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
Ok. First one has to explain what is warming mars and earth at the same time. The skeptic theory is the sun. But as i have already shown in previos threads the sun's irradiance has actually leveled off and decreased since the 50's and it continues that trend to this very day. The warming on mars and earth beagn in the 70s. Obviously the sun is not the cuplrit.
My sources (and they are credible science sites) say that the energy output of the sun has been increasing by 0.05%/decade since the 1970's AND that the last 70 years of the sun has seen more sunspot activity than at any other period that goes back 8000 years. I don't know where you got your information from.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
So if mars is warming what is causing it? According tot this Nature article there have been an increase in 'planet darkening' storms over the last ~30 years.

Global warming and climate forcing by recent albedo changes on Mars : Abstract : Nature

This changes the albedo of mars and causes it absorb more heat. Albedo is how much sunlight is reflected from a surface. A bright surface reflects more heat, a dark surface absorbs more heat. This is the best explanation we have for mars warming. There is no evidence at all of a single cause for the warming on both the earth and mars so the warming on earth must be caused by something else (not the sun and not the albedo of mars).
I am aware of this hypothesis, understand the physics behind it, and have read a few articles on it but, it's a hypothesis. And if I am remembering correctly, they used state of the art infrared cameras to take pictures of today and compared them to 30 year old pictures.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post

Your second argument refers to the co2/temperature lag recorded in the antarctic ice core samples. The milankovitch cycle (changes in the earths orbit around the sun) begins to warm the southern hemisphere before there is any release of CO2. But the amount of warming caused by the variability in the earths orbit is not sufficient to cause the amount of warming that is recored in the climate record (the amount required to end an ice age). So, we need an explanation for what amplified the warming caused by variability in the earths orbit around the sun (milankovitch cycle), and this is most likely the release of CO2 from the warming oceans in what is referred to as a positive feedback. This increase in atmospheric CO2 causes further warming which is sufficient to bring the earth out of an ice age. Here is the interesting part, the time it takes for the solubility of CO2 in the ocean to fall enough to release the CO2 is approx. 800 years - which just happens to be the amount of lag recorded in the ice cores. Here is another interesting fact - the earths orbit is not currently in a cycle that would warm be warming the earth, in fact we should be getting cooler. Wow.

First of all, I've read that the 800 year lag when looked at more closely is more like 400 years. Either way, the temp is changing before the CO2. And if I am not mistaken, the CO2 lag also happens when the temp falls. Second, the CO2 changes could also be (and I think this is the main reason) explained by the fact that when the earth is warmer, more life results which means more CO2 is emitted. When the earth is colder, there is less life and hence, less CO2. Third, when you look at the picture of temp and CO2 from Al Gore's movie, they more or less track each other. If there was an amplification of the temp from the CO2, I don't see anything that indicates this. And one other note on the 70,000 year Milankovitch Theory. It's a theory. For all we know, the sun could have some kind of long term cycle besides its 11 year sunspot cycle.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewl View Post
In conclusion, the warming on both earth and mars cannot be explained by one single case, the warming on mars actually has a perfectly good mars centered explanation. The CO2/temperature lag is actually expected in our understanding of the earths climate; it does not disprove anthropogenic global warming at all. In fact if should give us serious pause to consider the power of feedback loops in the climate and what consequences our activities might have.
Andrew

Andrew, I still highly doubt that it's a coincidence that both mars and earth started warming at the same time and warmed by about the same temp delta when my sources (credible science sites which I have posted links to in other uspoliticsonline threads) say that the energy output of the sun has been increasing by 0.05%/year since the 1970's and that the last 70 years of sunspot activity has been higher than at any other period during the last 8000 years. One other comment: There is evidence that shows when the sun was in low sunspot period, the earth was colder than normal (ex, the Maunder Minimum which corresponded to the little ice age), and when the sun had higher than normal sunspots, the earth was often warmer (ex, the Medieval Maximum which corresponded to the Medieval warming period).

Another reason why I still doubt that humans are primarily responsible for the recent warming is Kyoto. It was designed more to transfer wealth and/or jobs from developed countries to developing countries and as such, wouldn't have really done much to reduce the worldwide amount of CO2 emitted in the atmosphere. And based on this and what some world leaders have recently said in regards to tying poverty with carbon credits and GW, I believe that the UN is more concerned about the fact that 5% of the world's population emits 25% of the world's CO2 and that our standard of living is too high.
And if you read the UN's earth charter, there are numerous references in it to redistribution of wealth and technology, inequity, controlling the world's bounty, etc. I hate to marginalize myself but I don't trust the UN and this is based on what is said in this charter and other UN programmes such as the 'New International Economic Order.'

By the way, you often write detailed and lengthy responses. Are you a professor or expert in this subject (environment)?

Kramer
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Old 11-07-2007
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Re: An Al Gore Nobel counterpart (UN Scientist)refuses award and denounces alarmism

Quote:
Originally Posted by kramer View Post
By the way, you often write detailed and lengthy responses. Are you a professor or expert in this subject (environment)?

Kramer
I've wondered the same thing myself.

I've discussed this with Andrew before and he always makes a great argument, and a completely reasonable one.

I too have disagreed with him on this issue and then went and checked on things he's said and had my opinion revised (albeit slightly).

Finally, kudos to everyone in this thread for discussing the science involved in this issue and not a lot of the partisan bullshit that GCC threads normally devolve into.
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