And i would add that this is not even up for dispute. CO2 released from soil, ocean, and volcanic sources is different from CO2 released from the burning of fossil fuels. There are different isotopes of the carbon molecule that can be measured in the atmosphere, and we can see that one isotope (non-fossil fuel carbon) has decreased while the other (fossil fuel) has increased. The surplus of CO2 is from human activity, without a doubt.

cheers.

Andrew

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Ethanol is a fabulous solution to our energy dilemma because it will provide more fuel for us to drive around and look for food.

-- Unknown

Trouble is, the ice core data that is cited as proof of how CO2 and temperature are interlinked has one little problem. The hundred year lag of CO2 to temperature changes.

There is also the sun whose energy output has been increasing (overall, not linearly) since about 1700 and, of which the last 70 years has seen more sunspot activity than at any other time going back 8000 years.

And based on my recall of news snippets (and excluding this year), there has been no appreciable warming of the earth since 1998 while CO2 levels have continued to rise.

Kramer

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“It's time to admit that public education operates like a planned economy, a bureaucratic system in which everybody's role is spelled out in advance and there are few incentives for innovation and productivity. It's no surprise that our school system doesn't improve; it more resembles the communist economy than our own market economy."
Albert Shanker, former president of the American Federation of Teachers

And of course you provide no argument or facts to support that silly assertion.

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... ..................
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

That's not a problem, there's plenty of warming after the co2 starts rising for co2 to be contributing to.

In the last few decades it hasn't shown enough increase to explain the warming in this period of time.

1998 was ahead of it's time. It was anomously warm due to a strong el nino in that year. It takes some time for the global warming trend to drive temperature to that level again. However in two of the three surface records 2005 was warmer.

It's based on well founded physics. co2 is a greenhouse gas, increasing levels of co2 enhances the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect makes the earth 33C warmer, enhancing it makes it warmer still. For an overview of how rising co2 causes warming:
The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect

Sad

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Big Number of 2008
8,217,246
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"Shake off all the fears of servile prejudices, under which weak minds are servilely crouched. Fix reason firmly in her seat, and call on her tribunal for every fact, every opinion. Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear."

-Thomas Jefferson

The so-called "greenhouse effect" of CO2 is based on unproven speculative theory, not "well founded physics".

Are you intelligent enough to understand the difference or no?

__________________
... ..................
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

I would be inclined to take your word on it if you didn't repeatedly exhibit a lack of understanding of even the most basic scientific principles associated with the issue at hand.

CO2, among other greenhouse gases, retains heat. It's beyond any reasonable doubt. There is a reason why it's used in industry to store perishables in transit.

__________________
He who learns but does not think is lost! He who thinks but does not learn is in great danger. --Confucius

Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.
--Sun Tzu

Smooth seas do not make skillful sailors.
--African proverb

How did you come to the conclusion that there is a "surplus" of CO2 in the first place?

__________________
... ..................
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

We can measure it and have been measuring it for decades. The surplus would be defined as the amount over and above what the system naturally absorbs. For many years the oceans have been able to absorb huge amounts of the CO2 from fossil fuels, but the oceans are already showing signs that they have reached a limit.

Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change -- Le Quéré et al. 316 (5832): 1735 -- Science

Andrew

__________________
Ethanol is a fabulous solution to our energy dilemma because it will provide more fuel for us to drive around and look for food.

-- Unknown

That is not the definition of "surplus".

A "surplus" of any substance in a physical sense implies that there is more of that substance than is required for a given preconcieved result.

But you do not define that ideal or even present an explanation as to why you think that arbitrary preconcieved CO2 level will cause that result.

__________________
... ..................
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

That's nitpicking over words, we can resolve this by just not using the word "surplus" if you'd prefer. We could instead say co2 levels in the atmosphere have risen over 33% over the last 200 years due to human activity. co2 rise reduces the rate of flow of energy into space, so the earth warms as a result.

Resolve what, exactly?

In other words; What the fuck is your point, and why do you think it is relevant in this context?

__________________
... ..................
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

In that ice core data that shows temperature increases and decreases leading CO2 increases and decreases by hundreds of years, how much of a factor is CO2 in heating the atmosphere given that it's 1/720 times as powerful as water vapor as a greenhouse gas and that it made up about 0.030000% of the atmosphere?


The energy output of the sun has been increasing (overall) since about 1700 AND the last 70 years of sunspot activity has been higher than at any other period of time going back 8000 years... In addition, the energy output of the sun has been increasing by 0.05%/decade since the 1970's.

source
related link


Perhaps there is a lag for the earth heating to take place.


And ice core data shows that it takes hundreds of years for the CO2 to catch up to the temperature...

Kramer

__________________
“It's time to admit that public education operates like a planned economy, a bureaucratic system in which everybody's role is spelled out in advance and there are few incentives for innovation and productivity. It's no surprise that our school system doesn't improve; it more resembles the communist economy than our own market economy."
Albert Shanker, former president of the American Federation of Teachers

Before I answer your post, I'd just like to say thanks for stating your opinion in a reasonable way. I don't agree with what you posted, but I respect the way in which you did so. Thanks. Reasonable discourse isn't seen very often on this board, and I'm afraid supporters of both major political parties share the blame here.

Now for the meat of your argument.

Unfortunately, you present a couple of arguments that have been thoroughly debunked, and not recently either (I even don't think I'm even the first poster to show info on these on this board).

1) It's well known that CO2 is a minor gas in the atmosphere (but is the second most abundant greenhouse gas) and no one worth their salt would argue differently. However, your argument is somewhat disingenious in thinking that the low abundance of CO2 in relation to other gases means it has little effect when it comes to retaining heat. CO2, though in low abundance compared to nitrogen and other gases, is the second most abundant greenhouse gas, and is responsible for 9-26% (depending on who you talk to) of the greenhouse effect on earth. There is a lot of research to back that up (Kiehl and Trenberth 1997 is a good place to start). Those numbers are nothing to sneeze at.

But, what about water vapor? It's true, it's a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2 and more abundant (responsible for about 3/4s of the greenhouse effect). However, your argument is flawed in thinking that these compounds in the atmosphere are independent of one another. They are not, they interact with one another. For instance, CO2 can trap heat, making the atmospheric temperature rise. This allows for air to hold more water vapor which also increases heating. So, increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere can increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. (one recent paper on this = Held and Soden 2006). Additionally, increasing temperature can also increase the amount of CO2 the atmosphere can hold.

2) You state that sunspot activity can be the culprit for the heating. It is true that sun activity has increased, but the increase can't explain the amount of heating that has taken place. In fact, no natural phenomenon can. Onon is the resident expert on evidence for this, so prod him to provide references if you want them.

3) You state that historically temperature increases proceed an increase in CO2. This is true. Yet, it doesn't mean that CO2 is not the culprit for heating. In fact, climatologists PREDICTED that this would be the case before they could measure historical CO2 concentrations. Are these climatologists just idiots? How could they not see that CO2 can't be the culprit for heating...(which, I might add, is a really good question, no joke)

Well, it turns out that it is due to one of those feedback mechanisms again. Climate changes, like the end of ice ages, forced by Milankovitch cycles (from the wobble of the earth), decrease the albedo effect (less ice = less reflection = more heating) which cause temperatures to rise (higher atmospheric temperatures = more atmospheric CO2 = more heating). So both ice and CO2 changes SHOULD lag temperature, which is what has been found in ice cores. CO2 acts as an amplifier for these temperature changes, and historically these lags take about 100 years or more (depending on who you talk to), but always the temperature goes up again once CO2 goes up. So, given today's rising CO2 concentrations, you can expect more temperature increase in the future.

Don't take my word on it. Here's a great webpage I found that addresses your question far more lucidly than I could. It's even got a lot of references that you can check up on if you'd like.

__________________
He who learns but does not think is lost! He who thinks but does not learn is in great danger. --Confucius

Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.
--Sun Tzu

Smooth seas do not make skillful sailors.
--African proverb