I don't necessarily buy into what I'm about to propose, but I was thinking about this while going 10 miles per hour through a blizzard on my way home.

One of the stupidest arguments that seems to recur every winter is the "It was cold in Hoboken today, and therefore, man-made global warming is false." That seems to be an old favorite. But, something that I've noticed on the "other side" of this argument is that "global warming" seems to predict everything. If the weather is hot, it's because of global warming. If the weather is cold, it's because global warming causes increased weather volatility. If there are more storms, that is because of global warming. If there is calm weather, that's because somehow, the increased volatility can also cause increased calm. And, so on.

I'm just curious as to how you or anyone else might respond to this. I'm taking the cynical position that "global warming predicts everything" based not as much on anything specific that I've read on the subject, but rather on the way I've seen it argued by supporters of the idea. I'd just be curious if you could point me to a source that addresses this idea that I'm raising.

On a less cynical note, I tend to be skeptical of science surrounding weather prediction. I'm neither disputing the general warming of Earth nor that men contribute to it. However, I've also never really seen or known of any but the most vague predictions turn out to be remotely accurate. I'd be more impressed by some of the catastrophic predictions for trends if they were born out or agreed upon. People seem to agree that we're spewing CO2 in the atmosphere and that's bad, but from there... the Earth might freeze, the Earth might boil, a giant, never-ending tornado might ensure, etc. It seems that none of the predictions of doom and gloom are based on anything but theoretical modeling that requires the assumption of far too many variables to be called accurate in any sense that we know it.

Can anyone point me to, say, an environmental scientist that has accurately been predicting weather trends in any kind of specific fashion for the last five years?

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"Government big enough to supply everything you need is big enough to take everything you have... The course of history shows that as a government grows, liberty decreases."

-Thomas Jefferson

Climate predictions can only predict the climate (not with 100% accuracy, of course). climate models cannot predict the weather in any specific locale. Nor do they claim to do such things. Climate modeling tries to predict long term general/regional trends. I.e., global warming should increase the size of the norther growing regions, while at the same time shrink the size of the bread basket through desertification. There are other larger trends at play that are happening and are predicted by the GW model, i.e., permafrost is disappearing, arctic, Greenland, and antarctic ice loss. Glacier ice loss globally. Species migration northward. Increase in intensity and frequency of tropical storms worldwide. Etc.. the list of empirical evidence that the planet is warming is long and overwhelming.

Global warming does not mean that from now on every winter in every place on the planet will automatically be warmer, it means that the extra energy in the climate system will naturally cause more unpredictability and variability in the system, or what is being referred to as climate chaos.

The fact that china is having an unusually cold winter is not evidence for or against global warming. Its really not evidence of anything other than the weather is unpredictable, and will always remain so.

The climate is what we are concerned about, and it is predictable with relative certainty, normally. For example, I predict that it will be summer in june for the next 50 years in Canada, and i will guarantee im right... But, adding more energy to the system via trapped solar energy and the incessant human habit of converting all bio-mass to human-mass at globally disproportionate levels will make the weather less predictable and more chaotic. That is indeed what is being observed globally.


Andrew

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Ethanol is a fabulous solution to our energy dilemma because it will provide more fuel for us to drive around and look for food.

-- Unknown

Actually I did, both the democratic party and the media need a new emergency till a summer heat wave hits.

(Perhaps something along the line of 89% of Americans having health insurance being millions lying in the streets dieing or 1% of homeowners getting a buy here pay here high interest mortgage.)

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Only a liberal would know how hard it is to get a nicotine patch to stick to a monkey.

On the other hand I did not. I saw a news report with footage of highways closed.

No discussions on record lows or how they out number record highs 3 to 1 or commentary on us having to change our ways of life.

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Only a liberal would know how hard it is to get a nicotine patch to stick to a monkey.

Probably because record highs and lows are recorded in each local area which means they are reported on the local news. We have had record highs three or four times this winter and about a dozen times last summer but I don't go around complaining that it wasn't a national headline. Growing up here we usually had several snow days a year but now we have had a few rainy days each week instead. The summer brought a very dry drought and a record for the most days over 90 degrees in are area ever recorded. I got to go two months during the summer without having to mow my lawn because it just wasn't growing and was even dusty. States to the south of us where so dry they where fighting over water resources. For each area that has a unusually cold day there is another with a equally unusually hot day. Should the national news donate a percentage of its time reporting the temperature in each area of the country? The indicators for global trends are the global average temperature. Cherry picking data from specific areas and ignoring others isn't really productive unless one just likes to argue.

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"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

I don't know what the reason is but, the weather has been changing for the last several years. It's been about 5 years since we had a good show storm where I live. The summers have been alittle hotter and the winters have been screwy. Yesterday the high was 30 and rainy today the high is in the lower 50s and sunny tomorrow the highs are supposed to be in the low 40s. The weekend is supposed to be in the high 50s to low 60s with a cold front next week

Is this partly due to normal weather change, I'm sure that plays a part in it.
Could it be because of all the pollution we put in the air, that prob plays a part in it also.
And even if don't, whats the harm in reducing the amount of crap we put in the air. If nothing else it might make for cleaner air in the future.