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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 02-25-2008
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Member Since: Jul 2005
Location: California
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Sound environmental science, hidden bias, or non-issue?

Does anybody have a problem with a particular quote from the following excerpts?

Quote:
7 February 2008
New Research on the 2002 Collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf


A new study co-authored by NSIDC Research Scientist Ted Scambos and published in Volume 54 of the Journal of Glaciology sheds light on the 2002 collapse of a massive Antarctic ice shelf.

Lead Author Neil Glasser of Aberystwyth University in the United Kingdom said, “Ice shelf collapse is not as simple as we first thought. Because large amounts of meltwater appeared on the ice shelf just before it collapsed, we had always assumed that air temperature increases were to blame." The study identified additional factors leading to the demise of the ice shelf.
"ASSUMED????"

Am I over-reacting to a non-issue or is assuming something in the scientific world considered sound science?

Kramer
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 02-25-2008
President

 
Member Since: Jan 2007
Location: USA
Posts: 15,343

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Re: Sound environmental science, hidden bias, or non-issue?

There is nothing wrong with making an assumption when discussing a scientific question. However, that assumption's validity better be addressed in the conclusion. It doesn't appear that this assumption ever was until now.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 02-26-2008
Secretary of Defense

 
Member Since: Jan 2006
Location: Denmark
Posts: 3,178

    Denmark

Re: Sound environmental science, hidden bias, or non-issue?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kramer View Post
Am I over-reacting to a non-issue or is assuming something in the scientific world considered sound science?
Yes in both cases.

We assume the world is round until it turns out that it's not. We assume a stone will fall down when dropped until it turns out that it doesn't. We assume that planes can fly until it turns out that they can't.

No problem at all.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 02-26-2008
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Member Since: Jul 2005
Location: California
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Re: Sound environmental science, hidden bias, or non-issue?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Si modo View Post
There is nothing wrong with making an assumption when discussing a scientific question. However, that assumption's validity better be addressed in the conclusion. It doesn't appear that this assumption ever was until now.
I agree. If an assumption was made, it should be noted at the time of it being made.

Kramer
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“We should never be more vigilant than at the moment a new dogma is being installed. … The left has been swept along, entranced by the allure of weather as revolutionary agent, naïvely conceiving of global warming as a crisis that will force radical social changes on capitalism.”

TheNation, June 7, 2007
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 03-01-2008
Governor

 
Member Since: Nov 2003
Location: Various
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Re: Sound environmental science, hidden bias, or non-issue?

A couple of related links:
Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapses in Antarctica (March 2002)
Quote:
Ted Scambos, a researcher with the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at University of Colorado, and a team of collaborating investigators, developed a theory of how the ice disintegrates. The theory is based on the presence of ponded melt water on the surface in late summer as the climate has warmed in the area. Meltwater acts to enhance fracturing of the shelf by filling smaller cracks and forcing them through the thickness of the ice due to the weight of the water. The idea was suggested in model form by other researchers in the past (Weertman, 1973; Hughes, 1983); satellite images have provided substantial observational proof that it is in fact the main process responsible for the Peninsula shelf disintegrations. Christina Hulbe of Portland State University and Mark Fahnestock of University of Maryland collaborated with Scambos on the research.
Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapse Triggered By Warmer Summers (2001)
Quote:
Warmer surface temperatures during summers can cause more ice on Antarctica ice shelves to melt into standing water ponds, then leak into cracks and increase the odds of collapse, according to a new study published by an American team of scientists.
Based on the above, it seems that glaciologists knew the effects of meltwater at the time of the collapse, that they had been modeled decades before the collapse, and that they were due to warming climate.

A search for "hidden bias" in this case will probably be fruitless.
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Old 03-02-2008
Secretary of Defense

 
Member Since: Jul 2006
Location: Oregon
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Re: Sound environmental science, hidden bias, or non-issue?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kramer View Post
Does anybody have a problem with a particular quote from the following excerpts?

"ASSUMED????"

Am I over-reacting to a non-issue or is assuming something in the scientific world considered sound science?
Kramer
The word "assumption" can be ambiguous. One can make an assumption with no basis, or one could make an assumption based on the best information that is currently available. All scientific theory is assumption of a sort, hopefully based on what science knows and open to revision when new information is available. The way the ice shelf behaved gave us new information.
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 03-02-2008
President

 
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Re: Sound environmental science, hidden bias, or non-issue?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MareTranquility View Post
The word "assumption" can be ambiguous. One can make an assumption with no basis, or one could make an assumption based on the best information that is currently available. All scientific theory is assumption of a sort, hopefully based on what science knows and open to revision when new information is available. The way the ice shelf behaved gave us new information.
In good science, there is nothing ambiguous about assumptions. They are clearly stated as such and acknowledged as such. The conclusion will also acknowledge that the assumption must be valid in the first place. or not, for the remainder to follow. This is how science continues to develop. It's just good science and good reporting of science - taught and strictly enforced, at the lastest, to sophomores.

Last edited by Si modo; 03-02-2008 at 09:52 PM.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 03-03-2008
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U.S. Senator

 
Member Since: May 2005
Location: California
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Re: Sound environmental science, hidden bias, or non-issue?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kramer View Post
Does anybody have a problem with a particular quote from the following excerpts?



"ASSUMED????"

Am I over-reacting to a non-issue or is assuming something in the scientific world considered sound science?

Kramer

I'm probably rehashing what Si Modo has already said, but it is pretty impossible to conduct a scientific study without an assumption somewhere. Almost always you are building on previous work that was not done by you, and there are often variable, especially in environmental work, which you cannot control. It's not fatal to a study, it's just reality. What is important is that you recognize where your assumptions are, state them, and try to lessen their impact on your results as best as possible my modifying your procedures (you figure this out when by doing a pilot study beforehand). It is probably one of the more challenging (and frustrating) aspects of doing research.

But, to do it properly, you have to do it. Otherwise, you're leaving the door open for strong bias to creep into your data and/or overextending yourself on interpreting the data.
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 03-03-2008
Secretary of Defense

 
Member Since: Jul 2006
Location: Oregon
Posts: 2,423

   
Re: Sound environmental science, hidden bias, or non-issue?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Si modo View Post
In good science, there is nothing ambiguous about assumptions. They are clearly stated as such and acknowledged as such. The conclusion will also acknowledge that the assumption must be valid in the first place. or not, for the remainder to follow. This is how science continues to develop. It's just good science and good reporting of science - taught and strictly enforced, at the lastest, to sophomores.
Yes, in good science there is nothing ambiguous about the assumptions. I meant the way the word is thrown around in general. Assumptions in science are based on what we know, the assumption is valid when it is made BUT it must always be remembered that if new information becomes available then the assumption may be proven wrong. For quite a long time all the evidence we had indicated that matter could neither be created nor destroyed. Decades later that assumption was challenged and eventually disproved.

All of this is part and parcel of the debate about global warming. People are demanding absolute PROOF with no questions or caveats before they are willing to do anything to address the issue. This is silly, we should do what we can to alleviate the problem right now because the ecosystems may be irrevocably damaged before we have that proof. There are many things that could be done to increase the efficiency of our power usage without destroying the economy, but it will mean that some people in places of power are going to lose some of that power and therein lies the resistance to ANY kind of rational response. Exxon comes to mind.
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