Very interesting development. This could change things quite drastically for the middle east region. Anything that limits the US reliance on ME oil is a good thing IMHO. I hope these finds are just the beginning.....

__________________
I think at this point there needs to be a focus on an immediate increase in spending and I think this is a time when deficit fear has to take a second seat . . . I believe later on there should be tax increases. Speaking personally, I think there are a lot of very rich people out there whom we can tax at a point down the road and recover some of the money."
-- Barney Frank, October 20, 2008

Anyone want to speculate on the cost-per-barrel of oil in 2020? Annual oil consumption in the US is 7.56 billion barrels, so the new find is a year's supply.

Maybe so, IF they were to be our only supplier. But no one is expecting that.

__________________
"Chaplain Charlie will tell you about how the free world will conquer Communism with the aid of God and a few marines! God has a hard-on for marines because we kill everything we see! He plays His games, we play ours! To show our appreciation for so much power, we keep heaven packed with fresh souls! God was here before the Marine Corps! So you can give your heart to Jesus, but your ass belongs to the Corps! Do you ladies understand?"

By the year 2020 US requirements oil are forecast, with no new energy sources and current consumption rate of increase, at 12-billion barrels/yr. We current import 63% of our requirements, which would rise to 87% in 2020. For an eye-opener, do the math to understand what the trade deficit on oil alone would be at that stage with $500/barrel oil.

FSU Editorial: "US Oil Reserves: Four Scenarios" by Chris Geerlings 07/24/2007

It depends... would you rather be dependent on predictable semi-puppet regimes, or on volatile left-leaning democracies?

__________________
"Jesus said: I have cast fire upon the world, and behold I guard it until it is ablaze."
Gospel of Thomas

While Brazil has had these finds Russia which second biggest producer thinks it has peaked in production according to a article I read in The Financial Times. Also many sources that are easy to get to are running dry and the news ones that are found are in harder to reach places which is a cost increase.

__________________
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

I read that Russia's peak is open to interpretation with regard to pricing. With 2010 now the generally accepted world peak any rumors or statement of peak will continue driving futures markets and USD devaluation.

Any speculation on price say a year from now?

Hard to say. It will have a upward trend in the long run but there are other variables such as economic growth, stability in oil producing regions, possible terrorist attacks, and others which can have a impact on short term prices. I would say more likely higher than lower but nothing can really be predicted without guessing.

__________________
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Lots of variables but given world dependence on oil for food production and delivery alone I don't see a finite commodity doing anything but escalating in cost until it becomes unaffordable. Whether or not the world reacts with developing an alternative energy source prior to that point is IMO the issue.

I'm curious what the problem is with waithing until it becomes unaffordable?

If it's still affordable now (which it clearly is) then why do we need to fix it now?

Why invest public dollars in a program developing an unnecessary technology when it's as plain as the nose on our collective face that when the actual need does arise private industry will respond with an alternative that is probably going to be infinately better than whatever government can develop?

__________________
...Old Europe, a once-dominant region now reduced to sucking at the geopolitical teat of America... they spent the better part of the last millennium conquering the world and taking the good stuff home with them... And what do they get for their troubles? Ungrateful colonies demanding their independence. And after you taught them how to play cricket!...

-Jon Stewart

Cost is the only circumstance that will dictate development of an alternative energy source. As long as oil is 'affordable', there's no need for markets to change sources. To me, in our present direction, the big question is how long those using USD will find oil affordable.

The problem is that oil is an inelastic commodity.
If the price of gas goes from $2 to $4 or 6$ or $8, demand stays about the same, because everybody can't run out and buy a Prius by next week, and they still need to drive to work.

__________________
“ The subjects of every state ought to contribute towards the support of the government, as nearly as possible, in proportion to their respective abilities; that is, in proportion to the revenue which they respectively enjoy under the protection of the state.”

Adam Smith , The Wealth of Nations 1776

"We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics"
FDR's second Inaugural Address

Tell me about it.

The lease is up on one of our cars in December so we toyed around with the idea of buying a hybrid SUV.

Between the greater cost of the hybrid plus the dealer mark-ups and taking into account the one-time tax credit it worked out to where if we took a 5 year loan on the new car we wouldn't realize the gas efficency benefits of the hybrid until the last 4 or 5 months of the loan.

And that's after waiting 6 to 18 months for delivery of the new vehicle.

We're going to buy a non-hybrid SUV this time around and hopefully by the time we're ready to trade in the other car hybrids will have become a little more available and affordable.

__________________
...Old Europe, a once-dominant region now reduced to sucking at the geopolitical teat of America... they spent the better part of the last millennium conquering the world and taking the good stuff home with them... And what do they get for their troubles? Ungrateful colonies demanding their independence. And after you taught them how to play cricket!...

-Jon Stewart

Neither my wife or I drive hybrids but we both have small 4 cylinders and they get good gas mileage. We don't have a need for anything else although it is tight with two car seats for the kids.

__________________
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

We just had a baby in October and plan on having another one in about 2 years. I'm 6' so it would really tough for me to cram into the front seat of a small car with 2 car seats in the back. Plus you figure in all the shit you need to lug around when you've got kids and it makes sense to have an SUV or minivan. The wife refuses to be caught dead in a minivan. So there you go.

I think we're going to get a smaller 4 cylinder SUV in December which will still save us gas money considering the car she drives now is a 6 cylinder. She also only has a 10 minute commute so we don't use too much gas for that car anyway during the week.

My car is an '07 Mazda 3 we just bought, so that's about as small a 4 cylinder as you're going to get. It gets pretty good milage, but I drive about 80 miles a day, round trip.

It would have been cool to have the hybrid SUV but it just doesn't pay yet. When it does we'll be all over it. Assuming they don't develop some other technology in the next 4 years or so when I'm ready to trade in the Mazda.

__________________
...Old Europe, a once-dominant region now reduced to sucking at the geopolitical teat of America... they spent the better part of the last millennium conquering the world and taking the good stuff home with them... And what do they get for their troubles? Ungrateful colonies demanding their independence. And after you taught them how to play cricket!...

-Jon Stewart