Not unless it's sold in curio containers on a charm bracelet after it's no longer in demand.

The point being, as White Rabbit posted, you'd need 50 or so of those fields to have any impact on meeting current rates of consumption, more based on future consumption forecasts. It's simply not a significant number.

Right conclusion.

__________________
"I think that gay marriage should be allowed."
- John McCain on an episode of Hardball, 2006, before the commercial break

"I do not believe that gay marriage should be legal."
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"John McCain does not speak for the John McCain campaign."
- Tucker Bounds, Spokesman of the John McCain presidential campaign.

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MPR: North Dakota oil finds a big one


4 billion barrels are recoverable, with future-technologies maybe more. Just a personal conclusion, but that tiny percentage (2- %) looks like you need alien-technology to extract more than 20% of the entire deposit. Maybe Fox Mulder can elaborate how much will be extracted in the end, but I doubt it will be more than a quarter of the entire deposit.

__________________
"I think that gay marriage should be allowed."
- John McCain on an episode of Hardball, 2006, before the commercial break

"I do not believe that gay marriage should be legal."
- John McCain on the same episode of Hardball, after the commercial break

"John McCain does not speak for the John McCain campaign."
- Tucker Bounds, Spokesman of the John McCain presidential campaign.

The straight talk express. You gotta love it.

No one knows how much oil is in the Earth.

What peak oil is about is more directly related to the amount of reserves, their production rate and their ability to increase production, compared to rising world demand.

Here is a GAO rpeort from last year.........

The report reaffirmed that peak oil is inevitable. It is the point of maximum oil production followed by irreversible declines for oil fields, regions, countries and eventually the world. The report found most experts project a peak and subsequent decline in world oil production could occur without warning any time between now and 2040. The quality and availability of data concerning oil reserves and production capabilities makes projections uncertain. In addition, significant above ground political and economic risks to increasing world production are detailed affecting a large majority of world reserves. Coupled with rising demand, these factors show increasing risks of significant disruption to oil supplies. The report found no focus, coordination or plans by the federal government to prepare for peak oil or other potential supply disruptions.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/US/GAO/GA...rt20070329.pdf

You see, it is not about running out of oil, it is about not being able to produce it fast enough.

Here check out this map and look at a bunch of the PEAK oil years. Each country is listed for when it's production started to decline, or a future estimate of when production will start declining.

David Strahan | Interactive Oil Depletion Atlas

There are a few exception, for example Iraq, which has a peak year of 2022, but production has already declined. Of course I am betting production will rise in the next few years.

It is not about the reserves, but about production levels when compared to reserves and growing demand.

See....

The Oil Drum | The Disconnect Between Oil Reserves and Production

Lots more links.....

Peak Oil - The End Of Cheap Oil

As oil reserves are depleting, oil production slows. You simply can't pump oil out of a declining reserve as fast as you can a new reserve.

While we are still discovering new fields, it takes time, money and effort to begin production. It is unlikely that we will be able to close the gap between production and demand soon enough to stop the coming crisis.

Last piece...........

Copyright © 2007 Earth Policy Institute

IS WORLD OIL PRODUCTION PEAKING?

Lester R. Brown

Is world oil production peaking? Quite possibly. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show a pronounced loss of momentum in the growth of oil production during the last few years. After climbing from 82.90 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2004 to 84.15 mb/d in 2005, output only increased to 84.80 mb/d in 2006 and then declined to 84.62 mb/d during the first 10 months of 2007.

Among the post-peak countries are the United States, which peaked at 9.6 mb/d in 1970, dropping to 5.1 mb/d in 2006; Venezuela, where output also peaked in 1970; and the two North Sea oil producers, the United Kingdom and Norway, which peaked in 1999 and 2000.

The pre-peak countries are dominated by Russia, now the world’s leading oil producer, having eclipsed Saudi Arabia in 2006. Two other countries with substantial potential for increasing output are Canada, largely because of its tar sands, and Kazakhstan, which is developing the Kashagan oil field in the Caspian Sea, the only large find in recent decades. Other pre-peak countries include Algeria, Angola, Brazil, Nigeria, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

Among the countries where production may be peaking are Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and China. The big question is Saudi Arabia. Saudi officials claim they can produce far more oil, but the giant Ghawar oil field—the world’s largest by far and the one that has supplied half of Saudi oil output for decades—is 56 years old and in its declining years. Saudi oil production data for the first eight months of 2007 show output of 8.62 mb/d, a drop of 6 percent from the 9.15 mb/d of 2006. If Saudi Arabia cannot restore growth in its oil production, then peak oil is on our doorstep.

In Mexico, the second-ranking supplier to the United States after Canada, output apparently peaked in 2004 at 3.4 mb/d. U.S. geologist Walter Youngquist notes that Cantarell, the country’s dominant oil field, is now in steep decline, and that Mexico could be an oil importer by 2015. Production in China, slightly higher than in Mexico, may also be about to peak.


November 15, 2007: Is World Oil Production Peaking?


Hope this helps.

Peak oil in a nutshell: Plot on a graph the size/volume of all additional new oil fields production coming on line every year for any given oil-producing region. Result: a 'bell curve'. Peak oil is the top of the curve.

Thus, the 'peak' of maximum oil production for any given oil-producing region can be projected. Essentially, the peak is characterized by a 'production plateau' (such as the 89-90 million barrels per day of world oil production where we've been for the last six years or so).

The key piece of information from 'peak oil' theory is not that we are eventually going to run out of oil (that's obvious), but once you hit the peak, that's the end of CHEAP OIL. From that point on, every additional barrel of oil is going to cost more to produce than the one before it.

Based on all the data I read, I personally believe we are at a world peak in oil production right now.

Now or a year or two from now, it's still a circumstance that will extract a serious toll from a debtor nation such as the US. Imported oil is the largest single contributor to our current payment imbalance and we can only expect further currency devaluation with associated inflation as oil prices increase. That rate of supply/demand increase combined with USD devaluation will be, from a consumer viewpoint, astounding.

Not to split hairs or anything but we have produced no more than around 85 million barrels a day since May of 2005 while demand continues to rise - May 2005 is the date that some observers are calling the actual peak.

Its a pretty scary situation when you consider that the growth of word economies is expected to demand ~120-130 million barrels a day in just a few decades. And we are already struggling to break the 85 million mark. Not a good sign.

Andrew

__________________
Ethanol is a fabulous solution to our energy dilemma because it will provide more fuel for us to drive around and look for food.

-- Unknown

I've seen data showing 87 and 89 million barrels per day production averages during the 2005/06 period. I'll look for a credible source for confirmation.

Either way, it makes a mockery of Saudi's non-stop bull about retaining an ability to increase production on demand. They apparently can't - they are maxed out right now.

Yes, the 'petrodollar' and the 'foreign currency reserve premium' have traditionally both contributed to the US dollar being both more steady and much higher valued than actual US economic statistics would warrant.

Both of these 'value boosters' to the US dollar are apparently disappearing right now, allowing the US dollar to fall to its true market value (which isn't pretty).

And yes, the future does not bode well for the US dollar at all.

The saudis recently said they will purposely not tap new fields.

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world's top exporter for future generations…

"When there were some new finds, I told them, 'no, leave it in the ground, with grace from god, our children need it'," King Abdullah said…

Saudi production capacity stands at around 11.3 million bpd, and is scheduled to rise to 12.5 million bpd next year.

Saudi King Abdullah drops quiet bombshell; U.S. media sleep through it | EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse

This was a worry i read about awhile ago... as peak oil becomes more visible and obvious, many nations will decide to reduce exports preserving their reserves for their own present and future domestic consumption. This only further deepens the problem of peak oil, and it causes the decline side of the bell curve to drop like a cliff....

Andrew

__________________
Ethanol is a fabulous solution to our energy dilemma because it will provide more fuel for us to drive around and look for food.

-- Unknown

US desperation is already apparent as depicted by the title of this thread. Do you feel many Americans are cognizant of the chaos that lies ahead without or until alternative energy sources become available? I mention only Americans due to our oil dependency being much greater than any other nation and our lack of domestic supply.

I think that most people in the world, not just americans, do not quite realize the situation we have created by relying on oil in any "developing" or "developed" nation.

Most people think that technology can fix it. Nothing to worry about except maybe a blip here or there.

IMO, without oil the entire structure of our civilization eventually collapses. There is no technology that can change that. The world will be a different place without easy access to cheap oil for everyone. The best technology can do is make the transition easier.

Andrew

__________________
Ethanol is a fabulous solution to our energy dilemma because it will provide more fuel for us to drive around and look for food.

-- Unknown

I agree, but the difference could be between a recession and a depression.

We need to act now. We must really invest in solar and wind as well as biodiesel, in my opinion.

We still generate over half of our electricity from coal. If we could make drastic cuts in our use of coal for electricity, then we could use coal for making fuel for transportation, which would help buy us more time.

wow... that's great news...

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yes, it said that in the article... it was discovered in 1951 but it hasn't been until now that it was financially feasible to produce.

and yes, we need to do that too...

__________________
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