What happened to global warming ? - U.S. Politics Online: A Political Discussion Forum

daddio · #1 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009

from the BBC

yes, the oil company owned BBC even admits its no longer warming.

Quote:

his headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.

But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.

And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.

So what on Earth is going on?

Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming.

They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this?

During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly.
The Sun (BBC)
Recent research has ruled out solar influences on temperature increases

Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth's warmth comes from the Sun.

But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.

The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.

And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees.

He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures.

He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.

If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.

Wndrtch · #2 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009

It was never real in the first place.

Even CO2 was at 7,000ppm, the Earth's average temp never rose above 22degC.

Sunshine · #3 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009

I have wondered that myself this week as I have frozen my ample ass off. Temperatures have been 10 degrees lower than the National Weather Service said they would be. When you travel you need to be able to depend on the NWS! Grrrrrrr.........

chassisman · #4 (**permalink**) 10-10-2009

C'mon folks, Algore is counting on you to swallow.

daddio · #5 (**permalink**) 10-13-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sunshine

I have wondered that myself this week as I have frozen my ample ass off. Temperatures have been 10 degrees lower than the National Weather Service said they would be. When you travel you need to be able to depend on the NWS! Grrrrrrr.........

count on weathermen ? silly sunny !

count on a stick !

hold it out your window.

if it comes back wet, its rainy
if it comes back cold, its cold.

get the idea ?

BamaGuy · #6 (**permalink**) 10-13-2009

Guess they will start pushing the Cap and Trade Bill soon before it starts really getting cold.

chassisman · #7 (**permalink**) 10-13-2009

I see on the toob that Algore doesn't want to discuss flawed info on GW..........with anyone.

daddio · #8 (**permalink**) 10-13-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by chassisman

I see on the toob that Algore doesn't want to discuss flawed info on GW..........with anyone.

well, he made good money for a while with that crap...

Disillusioned_1 · #9 (**permalink**) 10-13-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wndrtch

It was never real in the first place.

Even CO2 was at 7,000ppm, the Earth's average temp never rose above 22degC.

A much more relevant site than the one you keep bringing up (which I find personally to be terrible), is this one, which at least links to scientifically peer reviewed research.

The PreHistorical Record

Andrewl · #10 (**permalink**) 10-13-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by daddio

from the BBC

yes, the oil company owned BBC even admits its no longer warming.

LOL...

In regards to the article its simply just wrong. Yet another common error by the denialist community.

Figure 1. Global temperature according to NASA GISS data since 1980. The red line shows annual data, the larger red square a preliminary value for 2009, based on January-August. The green line shows the 25-year linear trend (0.19 ºC per decade). The blue lines show the two most recent ten-year trends (0.18 ºC per decade for 1998-2007, 0.19 ºC per decade for 1999-2008) and illustrate that these recent decadal trends are entirely consistent with the long-term trend and IPCC predictions. Even the highly “cherry-picked” 11-year period starting with the warm 1998 and ending with the cold 2008 still shows a warming trend of 0.11 ºC per decade (which may surprise some lay people who tend to connect the end points, rather than include all ten data points into a proper trend calculation).

RealClimate: A warming pause?

There are a few lessons to learn here.

1) short term variability is to be expected. duh!!!

2) if you cherry pick your data set starting in 1998 (the strongest el nino on record) it will indeed appear as if it is cooling.

3) but wait, its not actually cooling. the temperature record over the long term is quite clear.

4) but wait again, even if you cherry pick 1998 as the starting point this current decade is still warmer on average than the previous.

Any questions?

Andrew

SArrow · #11 (**permalink**) 10-13-2009

What happened to it? Obama was elected.

Tanngrisnir3 · #12 (**permalink**) 10-13-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by SArrow

What happened to it? Obama was elected.

Where is the dodecahedral elk box?

daddio · #13 (**permalink**) 10-13-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrewl

LOL...

In regards to the article its simply just wrong. Yet another common error by the denialist community.

Figure 1. Global temperature according to NASA GISS data since 1980. The red line shows annual data, the larger red square a preliminary value for 2009, based on January-August. The green line shows the 25-year linear trend (0.19 ºC per decade). The blue lines show the two most recent ten-year trends (0.18 ºC per decade for 1998-2007, 0.19 ºC per decade for 1999-2008) and illustrate that these recent decadal trends are entirely consistent with the long-term trend and IPCC predictions. Even the highly “cherry-picked” 11-year period starting with the warm 1998 and ending with the cold 2008 still shows a warming trend of 0.11 ºC per decade (which may surprise some lay people who tend to connect the end points, rather than include all ten data points into a proper trend calculation).

RealClimate: A warming pause?

There are a few lessons to learn here.

1) short term variability is to be expected. duh!!!

2) if you cherry pick your data set starting in 1998 (the strongest el nino on record) it will indeed appear as if it is cooling.

3) but wait, its not actually cooling. the temperature record over the long term is quite clear.

4) but wait again, even if you cherry pick 1998 as the starting point this current decade is still warmer on average than the previous.

Any questions?

Andrew

he're the author's blog

BBC - Paul Hudson's Blog

in case you want to tell him this stuff.

ViPER · #14 (**permalink**) 10-13-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by daddio

he're the author's blog

BBC - Paul Hudson's Blog

in case you want to tell him this stuff.

The author is aware, his article is for your benefit.

EagleTed · #15 (**permalink**) 10-13-2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andrewl

Any questions?

Andrew

Just a comment. Anybody can superimpose a straight line. Attempting to call that "science" is just a little far-fetched.

Reminds me of the stock market techies who use charts to invest by. Oddly, it kind of works as enough of them believe in it to make it work.

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