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  #46 (permalink)  
Old 06-23-2008
USViking's Avatar
USViking USViking is offline
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Re: What if America had stayed out of WWI?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
...I don't think the Germans could have won overwhelmingly enough to impose similarly harsh peace conditions on France. But I could be wrong. Someone with better knowledge of military strategy might examine the situation. One way in which I might be wrong is this: mobility had been restored to the front by the development of new tactics
No, mobility had not been restored, and what
new tactics are you speaking of?




Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
...and the invention of the tank,
WW1 tanks could move scarcely faster than
a marching soldier (7km/hr tops).




Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
so the western front in 1918 did not bog down into trench-warfare stalemate the way it did in 1914-16.
It was just as bogged until the Germans made
use of several 100k soldiers transferred from the
East to break through.

After the German offensive was halted tanks
were put to good use in the allied counterattack.
However, they were useful not because they
were more mobile than a soldier on foot but
because they were protected from shrapnel
and small arms fire.




Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
Suppose the German offensive, using troops released from the eastern front, had succeeded in breaking through? Could they have achieved a 1940-like outcome? If they did -- bear in mind these were not the Nazis -- would they have imposed such a harsh peace on France, or would they have settled for "Let's get this bloody mess over and done with and have peace on decent terms."
German aims vis a vis France were identical in both
world wars, namely, permanent elimination of France
as a military threat. Having attained this Germany
would not have considered giving it up just to get
the UK out of the war. And the UK was not getting
out with any part of France or Belgium still occupied
by Germany.




Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
There is a possible indicator in what was done in the peace negotiations with Russia. But not a certain one.

Now, two important observations. First, while the Germans demanded substantial territorial concessions from Russia, the territories to be ceded were ones already occupied by German troops, and also ones that were not part of Russia proper; no actual Russian territory was demanded (nor ceded even in the harsher treaty that actually ended the war after Russia refused to make peace on the terms offered).
Excuse me, but Ukraine is the second largest
European country, and was also the Russian Empire's
best agricultural land, and also contained European
Russia's largest supplies of coal. Throw in Belarus,
Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Russian
Poland and you have a staggering territorial loss
even if no specifically Russian land was ceded.

Citing this as an example of German moderation
is nonsense.



Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
And second, the Germans were negotiating probably without taking the threat of the United States into consideration, so that this may be taken as a genuine indication of what a victorious-but-weary Germany might offer in the way of peace terms.

A similar offer on the western front -- the cession by France of territories occupied by German troops and not part of France proper -- might include the reaffirmation of German ownership of Alsace and Lorraine (which Germany had controlled before the war started, seized in the Franco-Prussian war of 1870).
Well, all territory occupied by Germany in the West
was part of France and Belgium "proper", and success
in 1918 would have put it in possession of a lot more
French territory "proper". Furthermore, the percentage
of pre-war territory occupied would have been very
much greater in France's case than in the case of the
Russian empire.




Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
Reparations might also have been demanded, since otherwise Germany would be coming out of the war with no gains at all to show for it.
You have been lambasting the French throughout
this thread for their reparations demands, and here
you are defending the notion of German reparation
demands on top of territorial demands! You have
now passed the edge of unwitting self-parody.




Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
I cannot imagine Germany in 1918 demanding continued occupation of half of France as was imposed in 1940,
Well work on your imagination a bit more, OK?




Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
nor France accepting that condition.
Prostrate, and having a gun at its head,
France would have been in no position
to reject any German conditions.




Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
Given that Germany would not be run by a lunatic, and that she would be fairly satisfied with her situation having won the last war, what reason would she have had to go to war again so soon?
From my post #22:

"Under my more realistic scenario Germany would
in 1918 have had everything in France that it had
in 1940. With Russia out of the war and with Turkey
allied its relative strength would have in 1918 been
very much greater.

...Germany would have been euphoric rather than
exhausted after victory both East and West in 1918.
Every year it had 100s k young men reaching military
age. It would certainly have gone on conquering until
Italy and Greece had been forced to surrender.
With all Europe less Russia under its hegemony supply
and finance would have been a snap."

Also:

The only thing left for such a Germany to deal with
on the European continent would have been Russia,
which would have been an easy mark at any time
lacking the territory ceded at Brest.

Even a UK-USA alliance might not have been able
to dislodge it.

I do not think that would have been a pretty sight,
and I do think it was worth going to war to prevent.




Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
(Hitler) considered the English to be ethnic Germans,
No he did not. He considered them "Nordic", not German.




Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
and had an idea of ceding rule of the seas to the British while the Germans would be the dominant power on the European continent. That the Anglo-German war went on after that was due to Churchill, not Hitler.
This imputes war guilt to Churchill rather than Hitler
and is an intellectuallty disgraceful statement.

It seems you would have aggression rewarded by
recognizing every single one of its gains.

Not only that, the aggressor would have had the
go-ahead to try and more than double his territory
and resources in the East. Success there would
have produced an truly gargantuan colossus,
greater even than the USSR at its height, and fully
capable of turning back against the British Isles
at its pleasure.

If your advice had been followed, Gracchus, then
what Churchill feared and was fighting against might
well have come to pass:

If we fail, then the whole world, including the United States,
including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss
of a new Dark Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted,
by the lights of perverted science


I do not hope to convince someone with your
worm's eye view of history. I will be damned if
you intellectually barren pontifications are going
to get the last word here, though.

I do not feel like going into your specious parallels
with our own day. Maybe later, maybe not. You
have plenty of wounds to lick as is.
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2008
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Cthulhu321 Cthulhu321 is offline
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Re: What if America had stayed out of WWI?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim View Post


So the Americans are to blame for WWII and Hitler?

I have heard this particular one before: it is part of the radical anti-Americanism that transforms everything, without exception, into a manifestation of either overt or passive American evil.

A far-left parlor game for trendy anti-Americans: "Let's work out a situation where we can blame those terrible Americans for absolutely everything, but remember - we must be careful to make sure that we never acknowlegde any positive contribution. Does everyone know the rules? This will be fun! After all, they are so dreadful, I'm sure we can pin the blame for all of the world's events on them. Now what if...."

Shameless - but not surprising.
Why is it, that whenever the United States Government makes some sort of mistake, the person pointing that mistake out is an an America-hating pinko-commie flag-burner?

Why is it not possible to accuse the government of doing something without implicating the people in it? I hated the government of Soviet Russia, I think Stalin was a murderous genocidal maniac, but I bear no ill will towards the Russian people as a result of this. Why can't this standard apply also to the United States? Why can't I criticize my government but still love my country?

Believe it or not, no one is blaming "those terrible Americans" for anything, instead the American government and its actions have been called into question, with no mention whatsoever of the character of the American people.
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