What if the South had diversified its economy early on, circa 1840 or so, instead of having nearly all of its capital invested in a Third World style mono-economy built around cotton? Would the development of its iron deposits around Birmingham, along with the discovery of the East Texas and Louisiana oil fields a few years earlier than the Pennsylvania discoveries, changed the results of the Civil War? Would that have changed the foreign policies of England and France much in favor of supporting the Rebellion, or, would the Rebellion never have taken place?

This discussion came up a couple of years back on a university list server, so I thought it might generate some discussion here.

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"The real question of life after death isn't whether or not it exists, but even if it does, what problems this really solves." - Ludwig Wittgenstein

"A day without sunshine is, you know, night."- Shannon

Thats exactly what they were trying to do which the Union tried to stiffle with tarriffs to suck up southern capital.

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Socialism doesn't create a rising tide that lifts all boats. It drains the lake and teaches the boat riders not to help themselves by rowing.

Jesus loves you, allah wants you dead

"Every government interference in the economy consists of giving an unearned benefit, extorted by force, to some men at the expense of others."

Ayn Rand

I don't think so, but I could be wrong; I don't have any numbers available at the moment but I'm sure that most free capital was still going into investing in land and slaves as it was just too remunerative for capitalist investors to consider putting money into such slow returns as steel mills and railroads.

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"The real question of life after death isn't whether or not it exists, but even if it does, what problems this really solves." - Ludwig Wittgenstein

"A day without sunshine is, you know, night."- Shannon

I cannot place the date that they began this activity as specifically 1840, could have been a little earlier or a little later and they were not pursuing it as vigoirously as they should have.

Some had figured out that overwhealming manual labor was wanning and there was no need to limit themselves to ag.

__________________
Socialism doesn't create a rising tide that lifts all boats. It drains the lake and teaches the boat riders not to help themselves by rowing.

Jesus loves you, allah wants you dead

"Every government interference in the economy consists of giving an unearned benefit, extorted by force, to some men at the expense of others."

Ayn Rand

I wish they had done it and abolished slavery on their own so we wouldn't have a federal government that has ballooned to gargantuan proportions. Good thing about the civil war: Slavery ended. Bad thing about the civil war: Federal power skyrocketed.

It was just a matter of time as it was with the rest of the world.
But it became a political issue for Lincoln so the matter had to be escalated.

And yes, it was the end for the Constitution.

__________________
Socialism doesn't create a rising tide that lifts all boats. It drains the lake and teaches the boat riders not to help themselves by rowing.

Jesus loves you, allah wants you dead

"Every government interference in the economy consists of giving an unearned benefit, extorted by force, to some men at the expense of others."

Ayn Rand

I just picked 1840 for purely random reasons; I would guess 1850 or so would be the latest date for an effective change to have a major economic effect by 1860.

Jefferson Davis was busy working on the South's expansion as early as 1850 or so, and when he was in charge of the War Dept. was surveying possible railroad routes from the West into the South, instead of where the Republicans wanted the East- West route, what became the Union Pacific route, to run. Of course, the southern route was too dry at the time, and couldn't support the population base needed to make it feasible at that time. On of the reasons for the Republicans wanting to break Southern political power even if it meant war was in part because of the railroad issue, along with how it was to be financed.

Robert Fogel had some interesting economic studies on that, which is where I get most of my opinion on why the South's capitalists didn't invest much in anything but land and cotton, i.e. most of their capital spending going into slaves.

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"The real question of life after death isn't whether or not it exists, but even if it does, what problems this really solves." - Ludwig Wittgenstein

"A day without sunshine is, you know, night."- Shannon

Yes, but the problem was what to do with freed slaves, and the North was not going to accept many of them; in fact Lincoln himself supported laws in Illinois that prevented free blacks from immigrating and owning land there, so it was a real problem.

How was it the end of the Constitution?

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"The real question of life after death isn't whether or not it exists, but even if it does, what problems this really solves." - Ludwig Wittgenstein

"A day without sunshine is, you know, night."- Shannon

A few other views

article
New Georgia Encyclopedia: Antebellum Industrialization

book on the subject
technology, innovation, and southern industrialization: from the antebellum era to the computer age by susanna delfino and michele gillespie

academics looking into the myth of non-industrization
CJO - Abstract - Past the Myth: Confronting Real Issues about Southern Industrialization

__________________
Socialism doesn't create a rising tide that lifts all boats. It drains the lake and teaches the boat riders not to help themselves by rowing.

Jesus loves you, allah wants you dead

"Every government interference in the economy consists of giving an unearned benefit, extorted by force, to some men at the expense of others."

Ayn Rand

Thanks for the links. I'll read them tomorrow or so.

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"The real question of life after death isn't whether or not it exists, but even if it does, what problems this really solves." - Ludwig Wittgenstein

"A day without sunshine is, you know, night."- Shannon

Cool. There is so much myth and legend surrounding thiss period its not funny. Seems that truth is always a victim when politics gets involved.

__________________
Socialism doesn't create a rising tide that lifts all boats. It drains the lake and teaches the boat riders not to help themselves by rowing.

Jesus loves you, allah wants you dead

"Every government interference in the economy consists of giving an unearned benefit, extorted by force, to some men at the expense of others."

Ayn Rand

There's little doubt the South would have done a lot better economically without the burden of slavery. de Tocqueville noticed it and wrote about how slavery had stunted the South's economy in the 1830's.

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Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys. ---P. J. O'Rourke

Fogel showed that that was not the case, slavery was indeed very lucrative; it just stunted the development of other major industries. Many Southern states had higher per capita incomes than any Northern state, but that income was channeled into only a few pockets, just as it was in Northern states.

The issues leading up to the Civil War revolved around the disputes between two small groups of competing financial interests over control of the Federal government, the North favoring huge Federal subsidies for railroads and manufacturers, the South being opposed to massive Federal giveaways to railroads and the Homestead Acts and, of course, high tariffs.

'The People' actually had very little say in the issues, on either side. Both sides manipulated the general ignorance of geography of uneducated natives and of course the racism of the waves of immigrants then pouring into the country, but slavery and its corollary 'emancipation' was just a red herring, for both sides. Lincoln made 'Slavery' an issue to gain Congressional support from abolitionist splinter groups; he barely won election, the votes were split by three major candidates, so he had almost no mandate from the legislatures and had to go hunting up 'allies'.

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"The real question of life after death isn't whether or not it exists, but even if it does, what problems this really solves." - Ludwig Wittgenstein

"A day without sunshine is, you know, night."- Shannon

I'm surprised nobody has brought up how developing the steel industries around Birmingham might have helped the South militarily, the effects that might have had on the war or the pause that might have given the Republicans.

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"The real question of life after death isn't whether or not it exists, but even if it does, what problems this really solves." - Ludwig Wittgenstein

"A day without sunshine is, you know, night."- Shannon

I have to wonder if how States would have been permitted to discriminate based on color if, hypothetically, slavery had been abolished via eminent domain laws, since anyone born in the US is automatically a citizen of the US.