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  #46 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2007
White Rabbit's Avatar
White Rabbit White Rabbit is offline
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Déjà vu

 
Member Since: Jul 2007
Location: Go Ask Alice
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Re: Swarm Theory & Group Psychology

Quote:
Originally Posted by WarOnIgnorance View Post
I've been thinking to find other examples. Some candidates I contemplated are the behaviour of people leaving a crowded train and moving out of the station, European style mass demonstrations, mass sport events such as marathons, but they all suffer from the same issue. There always is information external to the system, the components are always complex systems themselves and so on, precisely as with the previous ones.

To find an example, it seems obvious that basic human traits would have to be temporarily disconnected. A mass of sleepwalkers could be usable, but that of course is farfetched Stupefied drug or alcohol users could do the trick but they do not generally operate in masses.
As I noted above. Humans have a hard time acting non-human. For this theory to apply to humans, humans would have to act non-human. Ergo, the theory is likely to find little or no application in human affairs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WOI
No, I don't know it. And, alas, if I allow my bibliomania to add yet another one to the pile, there is a statistically significant risk of a poleshift.
Alas, it is a very good one - one of the best I've read in the last couple of years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WOI
Would it give sufficient cause for accepting the age old adage of economic theory ?
No. You are impinging on 'conspiracy theory' territory here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WOI
Freud says that your disdain for mathematics is externalized by spelling mistakes
Yes, that may be true, but Freud is still an idiot. I do not respect his work. Jungian psychology puts Freud to shame.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WOI
This would be part of the gauntlet challenge. Even if the parameter consists of only the three significant digits I remembered -it's actually more precise- the chance of it emerging randomly would be 1 in 1000.
WTF are you talking about? Looks like mathematical mumbo-jumbo to me! How many angels can dance on the head of a parameter?

Mathematics appeals to those who lack imagination.
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2007
WarOnIgnorance's Avatar
WarOnIgnorance WarOnIgnorance is offline
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Member Since: Nov 2005
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Re: Swarm Theory & Group Psychology

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Originally Posted by White Rabbit View Post
As I noted above. Humans have a hard time acting non-human. For this theory to apply to humans, humans would have to act non-human. Ergo, the theory is likely to find little or no application in human affairs.
I think we can call this settled then. I agree.

Quote:
Originally Posted by White Rabbit View Post
Alas, it is a very good one - one of the best I've read in the last couple of years.
It goes on the longlist.

Quote:
Originally Posted by White Rabbit View Post
No. You are impinging on 'conspiracy theory' territory here.
I expected as much. It's hilarious to think that a simple model as swarm theory already has such big issues when it comes to human behaviour and that at the same time there is a whole well respected field that claims to model human behaviour in its fullness.

Quote:
Originally Posted by White Rabbit View Post
Yes, that may be true, but Freud is still an idiot. I do not respect his work. Jungian psychology puts Freud to shame.
I like pioneers such as Freud, Lyell, Darwin, .. even if their work becomes obsolete later on. The Psychopathology of Everyday Life, Totem and Taboo, and the Interpretation of Dreams are my favourites regarding Freud.
Jung is better, yes, but he also impinges on conspiracy theory territory on occasion

Quote:
Originally Posted by White Rabbit View Post
WTF are you talking about? Looks like mathematical mumbo-jumbo to me! How many angels can dance on the head of a parameter?

Mathematics appeals to those who lack imagination.
It's easy, even for the philosophically inclined. When you start out with no knowledge of the system and want to establish a parameter of the system between 0 and 1 with a precision of one thousandth, the options are 0.000, 0.001, 0.002, and so on. A thousand in all. If the system were random, each of these outcomes would have an equal probability to emerge. If you have encountered in other studies a parameter of 0.236 only one outcome corresponds to this expected value. Thus, a chance of 1 in 1000 that the correspondance is random.
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  #48 (permalink)  
Old 07-20-2007
White Rabbit's Avatar
White Rabbit White Rabbit is offline
Secretary of Defense
Déjà vu

 
Member Since: Jul 2007
Location: Go Ask Alice
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Re: Swarm Theory & Group Psychology

Quote:
Originally Posted by WarOnIgnorance View Post
I expected as much. It's hilarious to think that a simple model as swarm theory already has such big issues when it comes to human behaviour and that at the same time there is a whole well respected field that claims to model human behaviour in its fullness.
I suspect an interesting field of future discussion brewing here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WOI
Jung is better, yes, but he also impinges on conspiracy theory territory on occasion
Bordering on the occult in fact.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WOI
It's easy, even for the philosophically inclined. When you start out with no knowledge of the system and want to establish a parameter of the system between 0 and 1 with a precision of one thousandth, the options are 0.000, 0.001, 0.002, and so on. A thousand in all. If the system were random, each of these outcomes would have an equal probability to emerge. If you have encountered in other studies a parameter of 0.236 only one outcome corresponds to this expected value. Thus, a chance of 1 in 1000 that the correspondance is random.
And yet, an event with a 'chance of 1 in 1000' can occur 3 times in a row, and that can logically be taken as 'evidence' of the theory, or yet still pure random. In such cases, I'm not sure if the distinction is arbitrary or just subjective.

And you wonder why I call it mathematical mumbo-jumbo?
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