"Wanting to spend more time with family" is the excuse one gives publically when the secret polling shows one doesn't stand a chance.

I think Tobin is a total lightweight and running for the Federal Liberal leadership would be way over his head. Tobin is a classic 'provincial' politician - plays well on the home turf but no where else.

McKenna on the other hand does seem like a rather credible and I am surprised he didn't make a run for it. He might have had a chance - or at least a credible candidacy.

Well actually Tobin's wife has pleaded with him not to run both times he has thought of it, the strain of being the leader of the country. I know this because one of my professors knew with his wife, I met him at my University. He would be a good candidate, but again, not if you in the centre of the universe (TO and Alberta, how can there be two?) don't think so.

Mckenna would be terrific, polls showed he would have been the front runner, he shocked the whole country and the party when he declined to run. He is so much better than anyone there now. When Rae is your most credible candidate things are rough.

__________________
Diplomacy is the art of letting someone else get your way.

"There is no place for the state in the bedrooms of the nation" - Pierre Trudeau

“No one is more enslaved than a slave who doesn't think they're enslaved.” - Kate Beckinsale

There is only one "centre of the universe" in Canada. It ain't Alberta.

I agree with your comments about McKenna. I was disappointed when he said he wouldn't run. You're also right on the spot about Rae..whatever I may feel about how he would do as PM or leader of the opposition, he's got a lot of work to do in Ontario. How could the liberals win with a weak position in Ontario and Quebec? That's 2/3 of the seats right there!

Well I don't want Rae to win. Any politician that tries to win using anti-american campaigns should never be near the seat of Prime Minister, I had liked Paul Martin until he did it, and last nightm Rae tried it, he's out.

__________________
Diplomacy is the art of letting someone else get your way.

"There is no place for the state in the bedrooms of the nation" - Pierre Trudeau

“No one is more enslaved than a slave who doesn't think they're enslaved.” - Kate Beckinsale

It will be up to Dion to rid us of our dictator, Stephen Harper.

__________________
Diplomacy is the art of letting someone else get your way.

"There is no place for the state in the bedrooms of the nation" - Pierre Trudeau

“No one is more enslaved than a slave who doesn't think they're enslaved.” - Kate Beckinsale

I think Dion will be more helpful for those who don't like the move made to recognise Quebec as a 'nation within Canada.' But, he does have problems with his English proficiency, and that may cause some reservations with alot of English-speaking voters. Also, his relationship with David Orchard is problematic if you don't want to promote the 'US bashing' rhetoric that is too common IMHO and yours. In saying that, I am not speaking about politicians formulating and giving positions on trade matters and legitimate disputes, etc, in a respectful manner. All politicians should voice those things and be prepared to have proposed solutions and positions on them. I'm talking about the cheap perfume America bashing rhetoric that is vogue with the 'chardonnay crowd', the smug and insulting stuff winded from snobby elites, limousine liberals, and overbloated windy nationalists of the Carolyn Parrish style, the rhetoric of which is also used as a red herring and distraction tool for avoiding addressing and/or being accountable for actual performances.

On that note, I found it interesting that the Liberals had picked Howard Dean as a keynote speaker, although some objected highly to his selection because he is an American and, morever, some, like Ray Heard, clearly went out of bounds by going further into making biting personal attacks on Dean that I felt were gratuitous and unnecessary for public comment. Given Dean was already selected, this was a dispute that should have been voiced behind closed doors between party members and left there once the decision to ask Dean to speak was made. After all, the Liberals sought Dean, not the other way around. It also struck me that those complaining were trying to pander towards those voters who like to make the US a piñata doll. After all, Bono of U2, an Irish citizen, was a keynote speaker for the Liberals in 2003 and he did not get similar treatment IIRC. Ken Dryden's comments seem as such, given he is down in the polls. But, most Liberals seemed supportive of his speech given Dean had successes in strategising behind the scenes for the Democrats in 2004 and the 2006 Congressional elections in the US (Internet, voter mobilisation, revival of triangulation) despite his own personal flops (e.g., the 'Dean scream') when he tried to run himself for POTUS.

I agree with you on many things. I was really not for any of the candidates that had a chance, so I was an "anyone but ignatieff" supporter haha. Dion's english won't hurt him much, Chretien was PM for 10 years and Dion speaks much better than him. He will have to work hard to win Quebec over, I like that he didn't initially support the Quebec as a nation move. I just want Harper gone, and then work from there. My hope is the Liberals win, Harper resigns, a new conservative leader is elected (hopefully Condelezza's boyfriend Peter MacKay) and then he will win the next election, and Dion will be replaced and Frank Mckenna or Belinda Stronach (who looks great with her new darker hair) will take over for the liberals. That is a stretch but my dream scenario.

That would be interesting. Stronach dated MacKay when they were Conservative MPs and they broke up when she crossed the floor to Liberals after Harper told her he was going to do his best to smear her and ruin her political career in the tories. A Stronach led Liberal party vs a MacKay led Conservative Party would be interesting.

__________________
Diplomacy is the art of letting someone else get your way.

"There is no place for the state in the bedrooms of the nation" - Pierre Trudeau

“No one is more enslaved than a slave who doesn't think they're enslaved.” - Kate Beckinsale

True, Chrétien crossed the language barrier politically. I was thinking that he also was very controversial PM partly due to his francophone image, but it grew beyond that given his rhetoric, scandals, etc, on many matters. That set a typecast that is not exactly a great citation for Dion, which hurts currently because he was a PM recently and therefore resonates heavily in current voter mindsets. Chrétien leaves a salty taste in alot of people's minds, and I can envision alot of voters sighing with 'here we go again with a francophone' that set the ball rolling for putting the Liberals out of control. Add guilt by association to public angers over Québec, and the double whammy effect that BQ voters and supporters of the 'Québec is a nation within Canada' motion would hold Dion's stances against him, and he has more electability problems.

True, a Stronach-led Liberal Party would be interesting, especially if MacKay is on the other side with the Conservatives, but I can just see a big chunk of staple crop Liberals, and especially the ones who are NDPers hiding under Liberal cloth, and then the actual NDPers themselves, etc--going ape over such a thing. Picking Stronach would be seen as 'selling out' to the right, something even Dean's speech advised against, and something I am sure the Liberals proofread for approval before he made it. I'm not sensing that the mindset is there for that kind of triangulation yet, but maybe another bruising at the polls if it happens again might change minds considering the public will tell the politicians their mind at the voting polls if politicians are not listening to them.

You mentioned McKenna once again. Noticeably he stepped out of it. In this environment, I have to grade than against him despite his apparent abilities and charisma. He may have the talent to be a great PM, but he is choosing not to use it.

My sense is that he didn't want to run in this current environment. There is alot of problems and work to do in Canada right now. It is much easier to run with favourable winds at your back than against them, and it is much easier to keep your seat that way with re-elections.

I would give him alot more credit, however, if he chose to take the bull by the horns and go after the whole scene head on. Great leaders lead in more difficult times and with more difficult issues. It is easy to be liked and do well in calm and warm waters.

Politicians--creatures designed for survival and advancement--do this all the time regardless of their nation. I don't have a problem with this when there is a very popular leader already in power with great incumbency weight behind them, because that means they are likely to lose anyway. But, when the pool of choices is weak in a turbulent environment, then I would like to see presumed good candidates take their shot.

The problem that leaves for Canada right now is that 1) lightweights and lightning rods are the ones who will step up in bad times by default, and 2) nobody can tell who is a great leader who sits on the sidelines in harder waters because that is where great leaders are really made. How will McKenna do if hard times happen later if he makes PM later? Who knows. And he defaulted at the opportunity to prove it now, which is a minus stroke as I see it.

One thing that all of us Canadians have learned: Never underestimate Jean Chretien. In or out of politics. Perhaps the best politician and survivor in the history of democratic politics. There were many thing I did not like about him, and many in the country feel the same, but he is still seen more favourable than not. He is responsible for the Sponsorship Scandal, but Paul Martin was wrongly blamed for it. Overall, I don't see the French hurting Dion. His track record is great, there will be virtually no dirt on him and he was the Minister of Provincial-Federal relations so he is well traveled throughout the regions and that stands to benefit him. Also he is unknown in the West and in the East. If his people can make him look good right off the bat, he could do very well. Quebec is so unpredictable, so it is difficult to say what will happen.

As for Belinda and the right, Ignatieff was obviously a very right leaning Liberal and he was the front runner and if Kennedy had not supported Dion, he would have been the leader. The Liberals are truly a centre party and they can a go a little either way at any time, but usually balance out. Belinda was smart not to run now, and she has been on all of the shows providing analysis, and this will help her for the next leadership race, I would think her very influential and powerful father has been advising her to this.

McKenna said he gave running a serious thought, but his family asked him not to. His wife was tired of the run around and he decided to choose family over politics for now. I won't knock that, which is the same reason Brian Tobin, another good potential candidate declined running. McKenna led New Brunswick through very hard times and brought the province up and has a good track record in difficult times, but he promised if he was Premier for 10 years he would step down, and after 10 years did just that.

It will be interesting to see the next few months as the NDP have been anxiously awaiting a Liberal leader to vote down the power hungry Harper. I think it very possible there could be a spring or fall election.

__________________
Diplomacy is the art of letting someone else get your way.

"There is no place for the state in the bedrooms of the nation" - Pierre Trudeau

“No one is more enslaved than a slave who doesn't think they're enslaved.” - Kate Beckinsale

Hehe, that's true. He is made out of Teflon. And indeed Martin got blamed for things when his predecessor had more role in it. But as for Martin, I felt that he brought alot of the backlash on himself, though, by presenting himself as 'Mr Cleanface' in the wake of Chretien, and then getting ensnared himself like with his CSL Group, Inc. connections. The public knew Chretien wasn't a cleanface and he didn't pretend to be such--in fact his shenanigans and flirtations with controversy was his charm of sorts. When you pose as the man who is 'above all reproach,' however, it is a recipe for trouble whenever questionable actions inevitably occur under your watch, and guilt by association and especially guilt by action will land extremely hard punches when detected.

Good counterpoints, especially as to Quebec's unpredicability. Depending on the competition, the fact that he is a francophone may still make him a more palatable choice for many Quebec voters by that fact alone as the better choice amongst the selections.

It has the history of being towards the centre, but is it still? Or has it moved more leftward? It has appeared to me to have gone quite a few steps left although not so far as to become third party left due to the number of centrists still remaining by Canadian standards, but the overall balance seems to have gone that way, and it was part of the reason they lost recently to the Conservatives, where the winds of corruption, too much leftward movement, and some other things created the perfect storm for Harper to grab the reigns.

I do agree with Belinda not choosing to run at this time, and she has been a good commentator IMO.