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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 10-21-2007
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Bunz Bunz is offline
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Iraq: The two state solution

Considering the current situation on the ground in Iraq. Plus the exsistance of unwanted populations of Kurds in Iran and Turkey. The historic persecution of the Kurds in the region. I think the best step forward at this point for the ME is for the Kurds to be finally granted thier Independance.

The area in Kurdistan is relatively peaceful and the Kurds have generally welcomed the American presence. They still opened thier arms to America after the US totally burned the Kurds in 91. Now we are forcing them to be dragged along in the Iraqi government full of infighting and not getting much done.

The land would consist of the current Kurdish Autonomous region. It would be in a position to actually prosper. The oil wealth there is considerable. All displaced and persecuted Kurds and whatever other people wanted to live there could through immigration processes.

The Turks and the Iranians, would lose no geographic land. I would imagine they would largely be glad to get rid of the Kurds, as long as it doesnt come at a cost to them. The Kurds have been involved in skirmishs with the Turks recently and it could be the next time bomb in the region. If the Kurds have thier home, they have no reason to continue thier insurgency.

The Kurds, have always desired a homeland. They have done thier side of the deal in concern to embracing American efforts. Why arent we rewarding good behavior towards American efforts instead of trying to baby the rest of Iraq into getting along, at the expense of the Kurds. Who have been peaceful and set to prosper. Potentially the beacon of hope that was originally intended for all of Iraq.

There is little doubt in my mind that a large motivating factor for the decision to invade Iraq from George W. Bush was largely a personal thing. His dad long took criticism from the right wing about not going to Baghdad in 91. Saddam apparenly had efforts to assasinate Bush41. The oil just buttered the bread. If Bush is interested in righting the wrongs of his dad. He would get this done. Bush 41 F'ed over the Kurds so bad I am surprised they dont hold more anger at the Americans.

I truly think this could be a solution to many problems in the region. It wont solve them all, but a long standing conflict and constant flashpoint of ethnic violence in the future could be fixed.
In Kurdistan there could be actual peace, and actual prosperity.
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Old 10-21-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

But surely that would go against U.S/U.K interests by moving towards politically stabilising an area that has oil, which could then threaten independence from U.S/U.K influence?

It's a fairly good idea though in my opinion.
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Old 10-21-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

You realize, of course, that the creation of Kurdistan would instantly trigger war by Turkey and Iran?
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Old 10-21-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

Why? I thought about this. Has either of those countries said that would happen?
It doesnt come at the cost of thier nation. With the proper foreign policy this could surely happen. The problem we have is that all to often people on differing sides of an issue, they spend less time talking to those who disagree and more time talking ABOUT them.

A peaceful co-exsistance? Why is that so hard to swallow? What perceived threat would Iran and Turkey have? Legitamate, independant government in Kurdistan is probably, and ultimately is in the best interests of the involved parties.

Groups like the PPK become obsolete and peace breaks out when ethnic groups that have been long supressed, that should have had full self determination a long time ago.
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Old 10-21-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

I guess what I am saying is this. We certainly are in a quagmire in Iraq. It is time for the powers that be, to take a step back and take a truely objective view on what the situation is and where it needs to go. Any peaceful measures for Kurdish Independance need to be seriously looked at and considered. Otherwise there is going to be long term ongoing conflict between the Kurds and thier neighbors.

To play a little bit of if I were President;
I would say to the Iraqi Central Government, either get your shit in one bucket by day X or we will immediatly sieze combat patrols, and will relinquish all internal security to Baghdad outside of the Turkish Provinces.
The Unites States will recognize an Independant Kurdish Government in the current Kurdish Autonomous region. We will be moving considerable military forces from your land and will be in a position to protect the sovereignty of Kurdistan. We assure you Kurdistan will not launch any offensive military operations at any of her neighbors.

The Turks and Iranians would be told a similar thing. The Kurds by treaty will conduct no military offensive military operations etc. The US will assure this.

Nobody in Iraq wants to play nice among Iraqis except the Kurds. The Kurds are the most realistic ethnic group, and geographic region to truly prosper from this. When they have thier homeland, self determination, and economic prosperity that is thier actual potential. I think it might be wise to look in that direction.

Of course this is purely hypothetical and many many many details would need to be worked out. This is probably the wisest time to go ahead and do this. Because whatever becomes of Iraq, without a peaceful partition it is going to repeat itself in increasingly large expenditure of life and treasure.

Our foreign policy should be dictated by dealing with people who want quality diplomatic ties with the US. Why are we again turning our backs on the Kurds once again, when they are ready and willing and in a good position to have its creation done the right way.

Last edited by Bunz; 10-21-2007 at 10:34 PM. Reason: adding a few thoughts
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Old 10-21-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

The Balfour declaration that stated the intention to create a homeland for the Jews in Palestine also stated the intention to create a homeland for the Kurds.
But the traditional homeland of the Kurds is the region of Iraq, Iran and Turkey that sits on oil, and noboby wants to give up the oil.
If there was a couple of billion barrels of oil under the land where Israel not sits, there would not be an Israel.
The Great Game is all about the oil, and the way it's played, the dispossessed don't end up with the oil.
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Old 10-21-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

Quote:
Originally Posted by goober View Post
The Great Game is all about the oil, and the way it's played, the dispossessed don't end up with the oil.
Your right, and the Kurds are much more likely to deal with us in terms of oil on favorable terms for both parties. There is plenty of oil in the rest of Iraq where having enough shouldnt be a serious concern. As far as Im concerned, the fields in the north are Kurdish and they have paid the price in blood for them to be rightfully thiers.
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Old 10-22-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

This was discussed here when U.S. invaded Iraq.
Some thought it might be a good idea to form three nations, one to each ethnic group, as others claimed that such carving would only hasten the civil war. Also Iraqi themselves might have a thing or two to say about slashing their nation.

Also it was concluded back then that should Kurds gain more independence, they would start assaulting Iran and Turkey in order to gain land from them, which in turn would bring new Iraq and U.S. against Iran and Turkey.

Kurds want those lands, they want to form Kurdistan and will not stop in the autonomy of Iraqi Northern parts.
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Old 10-22-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

Quote:
This was discussed here when U.S. invaded Iraq.
Well I would say at this point it merits further discussion considering how events have unfolded since the invasion.

Quote:
Also Iraqi themselves might have a thing or two to say about slashing their nation.
If the Kurds are also considered Iraqi, they seem to want out of that situation. The one thing the Shia-Sunni communities can agree on is that they neither dont like the Kurds. Why continually subject the Kurds to thier ineptness. The Kurds are poised to prosper if legitimatly allowed to.

Quote:
Also it was concluded back then that should Kurds gain more independence, they would start assaulting Iran and Turkey in order to gain land from them, which in turn would bring new Iraq and U.S. against Iran and Turkey.
The Kurds would need to understand up front that agression would not be tolerated. They would be allowed defence forces only. Under my idea, large amounts of American military currently deployed to Iraq would move into Kurdistan. The reason is two-fold. To provide deterrent from foreign powers from invading. Plus, to ensure the Kurds to not become aggressive.

I honestly believe. If you said, to Kurdish leaders. Look, you can have independence. You have all of the resource wealth and basic infastructure already in place where agressive acts become counter-productive to thier purposes. If you invade another country, or support terrorism(because once they gain independence, thier rebellion groups become obsolete) you will be overrun by foreign armies and most likely forever be an repressed population without self determination.
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Old 10-22-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

Um, you're aware that the Turks and Iranians are already shelling the Kurds, right?
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Old 10-22-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunz View Post
I honestly believe. If you said, to Kurdish leaders. Look, you can have independence. You have all of the resource wealth and basic infastructure already in place where agressive acts become counter-productive to thier purposes. If you invade another country, or support terrorism(because once they gain independence, thier rebellion groups become obsolete) you will be overrun by foreign armies and most likely forever be an repressed population without self determination.
Do you have any idea about the Kurdish population?
There are only about 4 Million kurds in Iraq. If they become independent, do you think they simply forget about 14 Million in Tukey and 7 Million in Iran?
The Kurdish Government in Iraq already said, that their "army" would stand together with the PKK against a turkish invasion...

They ARE a repressed population without self determination since ever... never had a country... always been opressed.
The only wise timing for a kurdistan has been in 1918... and the UK & France really blew it back then...
Now some will perhaps keep fighting for their own land, while the many suffer...
If it is worth it, I don't know....
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Old 10-22-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

Quote:
Exactly so. And for observers, factions are judged by their actions.
Yeah why? Because of a long running Kurdish insurgency. Depending on whatever side you are on, the insurgency is being undertaken by freedom- fighters or terrorists, because In every country Kurds currently live in the region, they are a large minority, repressed and seek independent self-determination. If they were granted independence, the reason for these insurgents exsisting goes away. They would be victorious because they won independence.
Quote:
There are only about 4 Million kurds in Iraq. If they become independent, do you think they simply forget about 14 Million in Tukey and 7 Million in Iran?
The Kurdish Government in Iraq already said, that their "army" would stand together with the PKK against a turkish invasion...
Im quite aware of the demographics. There would be a fairly large immigration to an independent Kurdistan. Considering the Kurds exsistence in Turkey and Iran, why wouldnt the Turks and Iranians take the chance to solve a long running issue at no expense to themselves?
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Old 10-22-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunz View Post
...In Kurdistan there could be actual peace...
Wow, another comedy thread.

Have you ever studied the history and politics of the Middle East before this week's headline news about the Kurds?

Just curious. Your post seems to suggest that you haven't.

Independent Kurdistan is as close to WW3 as I'd care to speculate upon.

Btw, Turkey has a long standing threat to militarily crush ANY Kurdistan claim of soveriegnty. I think this threat is highly credible and will likely be supported by a Russian veto in the UNSC if necessary.
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Old 10-22-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunz View Post
...Considering the Kurds exsistence in Turkey and Iran, why wouldnt the Turks and Iranians take the chance to solve a long running issue at no expense to themselves?
I double-down on my assertion that you are completely unaware of actual Middle Eastern history here.
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Old 10-22-2007
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Re: Iraq: The two state solution

Any independent nation that views minorities in neighbouring countries kin to themselves tend to protect the interests of thow minorities. This is obviously what the Turks and Iranians are afraid of, if the Iraqi Kurds would be able to form an independent country.

After all, the USA intervened in Mexico on behalf of the US people who had moved to Texas. You just have to look at the result of that.
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