Thread: Anyone want to predict the outcome of the health care case?

Americans don't know the details of constitutional law, but they love the Constitution and aren't big fans of Presidents who constantly look for ways around it's prohibitions. And the mandate is deeply unpopular. Striking it down won't deny anyone health insurance. If they strike down the whole law, that's different, but it's not like the Republicans don't have a health care plan. Liberals just don't like it.

Now Citizens United, thats a funny one, because while Americans didn't like the decision, there is no conceivable amendment to overturn it that would win support from the public either. What Americans really want is for a benevolent government to decide what political speech is protected and what is not, silencing the unpopular while allowing the popular to speak. But that's impossible and any amendment which would grant the government such arbitrary powers would never fly. Which is why no such amendment will ever even be brought to a vote.

Originally Posted by adaher

Americans don't know the details of constitutional law, but they love the Constitution and aren't big fans of Presidents who constantly look for ways around it's prohibitions. And the mandate is deeply unpopular. Striking it down won't deny anyone health insurance. If they strike down the whole law, that's different, but it's not like the Republicans don't have a health care plan. Liberals just don't like it.

Now Citizens United, thats a funny one, because while Americans didn't like the decision, there is no conceivable amendment to overturn it that would win support from the public either. What Americans really want is for a benevolent government to decide what political speech is protected and what is not, silencing the unpopular while allowing the popular to speak. But that's impossible and any amendment which would grant the government such arbitrary powers would never fly. Which is why no such amendment will ever even be brought to a vote.

The mandate's only unpopular because Republicans are more effective at taking a term and demonizing it and then selling it for public consumption.

I mean, it's their own frickin' plan they're demonizing now, which is hilarious since it leaves them with no actual plan of their own to run on anymore!

Republicans effectively turned the public sentiment away from the mandate, but the problem of removing it is that after you take that away you end up taking away every other important thing that the public is totally for and that Republicans simply can't demonize.

Look at Mitt Romney on Leno the other night when Leno simply asked him about what a 45 yr-old would do if they couldn't get insurance again because of a pre-existing heart condition?

Romney goes, "Well, we'd have to tell that guy that we just don't play by those rules...".

Sorry, wrong answer.

Republicans demonized the individual mandate, turning it into a "gov't takeover" of health care, but the result will be that if you've got a pre-existing condition, the public will see the SCOTUS strike it down and then they'll see Republicans actually cheering at the fact that they've just lost their health care.

Do you remember what happened at Republican town halls last year after Republican voters found out about Paul Ryan's Medicare proposal? They fuckin' flipped out.

We've got the biggest national flip-out ever coming up when it's perceived that first the SCOTUS granted personhood to corporations, and now they're taking away our health care.

If the SCOTUS can take away your health care, what else can they take away?

If the government can make you buy something, what can't they make you buy? Rights are more important than benefits.

Secondly, the mandate isn't nearly as necessary as Democrats made it out to be. Utah has exchanges, and no mandate. It's not necessary and it was only supported by the President so that insurance companies wouldn't advocate against the plan.

I also can't help but notice that you seem to be living in this strange world where the ACA is untouchable like Medicare. A majority of Americans favor repeal. If as you say, they don't care about the details of constitutional law, then it won't matter to that 51% whether Congress repeals it or SCOTUS repeals it.

Originally Posted by adaher

I also can't help but notice that you seem to be living in this strange world where the ACA is untouchable like Medicare. A majority of Americans favor repeal. If as you say, they don't care about the details of constitutional law, then it won't matter to that 51% whether Congress repeals it or SCOTUS repeals it.

No, I contend that a majority of Americans only think they want the ACA repealed.

Then once it's repealed they'll realize what they lost and wake up to Republican trickery again.

And then the issue will fade into the presidential election as both candidates will have to pivot on what their plans are now.

The President will run against a do-nothing Congress and a SCOTUS that grants personhood to corporations but denies you health care.

Mitt Romney will be stuck having to actually reveal his plans on health care in a year where Republicans were simply supposed to be running against Obamacare in order to score points.

But now that it looks like Obamacare is no more, what now for them? Tort reform and "buying insurance across state lines" isn't going to mean much to people with pre-existing conditions who are flipping out the rest of the year at a court that took away their health care.

The mainstream public isn't so smart. They elect Republicans but then got angry at the fact that they tried to wipe out Medicare. The Republicans won in 2010 because they successfully got people to believe that Obama was screwing around with their health care, trying to take it away and what not.

But go look at the recent CBS poll about the ACA and you'll see that other than the mandate, more than 70% of Republicans are for insurance for folks with pre-existing conditions, for the idea that you keep your health care even if you lose your job, for the idea of children being covered under their parents plans until 26, for the donut hole fix on Medicare D, etc....

It's all nice and good. A shallow victory of sorts until the public realizes what they've lost.

I can buy that Americans aren't that well informed about the bill to be sure they want repeal. But they won't become more sure and then change their minds if it is. That makes no sense. And conservatives tried running against the courts for decades. It doesn't work. Americans respect the institution even when it doesn't rule the way they want. And if you think the liberal courts that used to dominate made popular decisions, you're nuts. But even when Americans disagree, they respect the court and will continue to respect the court. Democrats railing against the court won't work any better than when conservatives did it. And the do nothing Congress just passed a popular jobs bill that actually had bipartisan support. As well as agreed to deficit reduction, another issue important to the public.

Obama himself may survive 2012, but the Democratic Party is going to be measurably weakened. If the election were held today, the GOP would gain 8 Senate seats. And Obama is gleefully throwing Congressional Dems under the bus to save his own skin.

Originally Posted by adaher

I can buy that Americans aren't that well informed about the bill to be sure they want repeal. But they won't become more sure and then change their minds if it is. That makes no sense. And conservatives tried running against the courts for decades. It doesn't work. Americans respect the institution even when it doesn't rule the way they want. And if you think the liberal courts that used to dominate made popular decisions, you're nuts. But even when Americans disagree, they respect the court and will continue to respect the court. Democrats railing against the court won't work any better than when conservatives did it. And the do nothing Congress just passed a popular jobs bill that actually had bipartisan support. As well as agreed to deficit reduction, another issue important to the public.

Obama himself may survive 2012, but the Democratic Party is going to be measurably weakened. If the election were held today, the GOP would gain 8 Senate seats. And Obama is gleefully throwing Congressional Dems under the bus to save his own skin.

No, that's not true, the Republicans seemed much more optimistic about their Senate chances a few months ago, but now not so much.

I think the Dems will pick off Snowe's seat and I don't see Allen beating Kaine in VA.

The Republicans have to turn 4 seats and I'm just not sure they can do it if Snowe goes to the Dems, and they especially can't do it if Brown loses to Warren in Mass.

I think that race, Brown vs. Warren, is the national bell-weather for everything. If she pulls it out there than the Dems will keep the Senate, keep the White House, and make a run at the House.

Originally Posted by Jason Marcel

No, that's not true, the Republicans seemed much more optimistic about their Senate chances a few months ago, but now not so much.

The Democrats have had good recruitment, but the polling isn't really reflecting that. Kerrey is down 25 in Nebraska and Brown is holding his own against Warren. And a recent poll showed Sherrod Brown in trouble, as well as Bill Nelson in Florida.

I think the Dems will pick off Snowe's seat and I don't see Allen beating Kaine in VA.

Angus King is going to win Snowe's seat. Maybe he'll caucus with Dems, but in practice his voting will be closer to Snowe's than a Democrat. If it comes down to Maine deciding the majority, Dems get a lot of benefit out of King's vote, since he'd allow them to control the Senate, but otherwise he changes little. I would hope George Allen won't be returned to the Senate, but the polls show he and Kaine tied.

I think that race, Brown vs. Warren, is the national bell-weather for everything. If she pulls it out there than the Dems will keep the Senate, keep the White House, and make a run at the House.

That's a close race. A more realistic bellwether are the Montana and Missouri races. If the Democratic incumbents hold on, that's a good sign. They are currently running well behind.

Tommy Thompson leads in Wisconsin too. That was a great recruit for the Republicans. It would be big for Republicans to defeat the Walker recall and win that Senate seat. That'll deflate Wisconsin dems in a hurry.

Originally Posted by adaher

Those are not mandates for being alive, those are mandates for engaging in commerce under specific conditions.

So if it's constitutional for congress to mandate that all seamen must have health insurance, then mandating that an individual purchase health insurance is something the FF had no problem with.
The ACA only exacts penalties from people who have sufficient income, your argument is that mandating that seaman have health insurance is fine, but mandating that all people with sufficient income have health insurance crosses some constitutional line.
I'm just pointing out that mandating health insurance is something that the framers of the constitution approved of.

One does not have to be a seaman. Making the purchase of something compulsory for being alive is crossing a constitutional line. And that power can be abused. Hey, let's end the recession by having everyone over $50,000 in income spend 100% of it on American-made consumer goods this year!

Originally Posted by adaher

One does not have to be a seaman. Making the purchase of something compulsory for being alive is crossing a constitutional line. And that power can be abused. Hey, let's end the recession by having everyone over $50,000 in income spend 100% of it on American-made consumer goods this year!

The point is that if congress can mandate that individual seamen must have health insurance(something the actual framers of the constitution agreed with), they can mandate that anyone must have health insurance.

And the mandate is only that people who can afford health insurance must have health insurance or pay a penalty, you can avoid earning enough income to cross that threshold or you can pay the penalty, so it's not like you don't have a choice.

And the states currently have the power to mandate just about anything, but you don't see that happening do you?

Sorry to burst your right wing fantasy bubble, but this is not an "unprecedented federal power grab", because it happened before, while the framers were actually alive and in the government, and no one challenged it on "constitutional grounds".

Actually, since there's no enforcement mechanism, I say none of the above. The IRS can stick it and there's nothing they can do because the law forbids them from taking any action to collect other than garnishing refunds. Which I don't get anyway.

Originally Posted by adaher

I also can't help but notice that you seem to be living in this strange world where the ACA is untouchable like Medicare. A majority of Americans favor repeal. If as you say, they don't care about the details of constitutional law, then it won't matter to that 51% whether Congress repeals it or SCOTUS repeals it.

Speaking of which, expect the democrats to start pushing for extending medicare to the rest of america. We already have single payer healthcare.