I believe you are incorrect.

The number one jibe against Dean was that no matter how much poll support he had, there was no way he could win in the primaries given his public animosity with the party establishment. He was predicted to flame out in Iowa and NH for this reason and that's exactly what he did.

No one seriously predicted that Dean could win the Democratic primary. Lots of people wanted him to win, but there never was much of a realistic chance that he could actually win.

As it stands now, Hillary is looking like she's got the primary almost locked up. She totally owns NH and is rising strong in Iowa. If Hillary comes out on top in Iowa, the game is over right then and there. Poll numbers suggest that Hillary, Obama and Edwards are in a virtual tie in the Iowa primary right now. Hillary is also very strong in Nevada and South Carolina. This is a powerful lead - given that Hillary is fundraising at the same rate as Obama and that she is so professional that she's unlikely to make a stupid mistake, at this point in time, it is certainly looking like Hillary has it locked up.

You might want to wait until the voting starts to declare the winner.
The front runner always draws the most attacks, and no one has their vote cast in stone yet. She's a gaff away from second place, with plenty of time left.
But that's not the real issue here.
The Democrats have tapped into a new form of fundraising, lots of small donations from hundreds of thousands of people. History shows that people who ante up early in the primaries, come back and contribute to the eventual nominee of the party, and with small donors, they don't top out, and with the internet, the cost of contacting them to contribute again is minimal.
Whoever the Democratic nominee is, they will probably be the first Democrat to outspend a Republican in a presidential election, at least in modern times.
In 2000, Bush spent 185 million to Gore's 120 million, that was always the GOP's ace in the hole, take that away, and the Democrats still have the unions and the environmental groups and all their traditional support structure. What does the GOP do to make up for that?

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“ The subjects of every state ought to contribute towards the support of the government, as nearly as possible, in proportion to their respective abilities; that is, in proportion to the revenue which they respectively enjoy under the protection of the state.”

Adam Smith , The Wealth of Nations 1776

"We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics"
FDR's second Inaugural Address

Dean had the nomination locked up too...

No Danny, he didn't. Dean never had the nomination locked up.

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"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."

President George W. Bush, 8-5-2004

Carolina Politics Online

THIS IS REAL HOPE AND CHANGE!

You underestimate the Clintons.

__________________
"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."

President George W. Bush, 8-5-2004

Carolina Politics Online

THIS IS REAL HOPE AND CHANGE!

1. Historically speaking in US primaries, if there is a clear front runner three months before the primary, they have a very high probability of winning it.

2. There isn't much of a historical track record of internet fundraising. The field is too new to justify making such claims. Yes it is a new form of fundraising that is very cost efficient for small amounts. But Howard Dean had a very large fundraising base of small donors in 2004 primary and flamed out spectacularly.

3. As the Republicans have shown, he who raises/spends the most, doesn't always win.

As I noted above, Howard Dean never had the nomination 'locked up'.

Indeed, many said that he couldn't win the primary at all despite his relatively high support numbers and high fundraising numbers. There was a strong "anybody but Dean" policy happening there that benefited Kerry.

And three months before the primary, there was no clear frontrunner in 2004.

It's just that that particular advantage has always fallen to the GOP candidate, just like the Democrat will always get the Teachers Union endorsement.

Not only that, some very big names on Wall St., who were Bush Rangers and lifelong Republicans are raising money for the Democrats this time.

There is a real sense that the GOP will be out of power for a long time to come, and it's becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

__________________
“ The subjects of every state ought to contribute towards the support of the government, as nearly as possible, in proportion to their respective abilities; that is, in proportion to the revenue which they respectively enjoy under the protection of the state.”

Adam Smith , The Wealth of Nations 1776

"We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics"
FDR's second Inaugural Address

I like the idea that Obama has so many individual contributors. The internet support is a refreshing development this election.

However, it seems that Hillary is the media's horse in the race. Supporting my suspicion is the latest attempt by the press using an unsubstantiated claim that Obama is "too white" to care about the Jena 6 case. Not only was it an unsubstantiated slam on Jackson, but also an attempt, IMO, to steer some of the black vote away from Obama.

Hillary is the favored kid of the media and that will be hard for Obama to overcome. It's a shame since he has much popular support.

Still, the significance of his internet support may become more important. Surprises are known to happen in elections.

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I am an American. That's the way most of us put it, just matter of factly. They are plain words, those four: you could write them on your thumbnail, or sweep them clear across this bright autumn sky. But remember too, that they are more than just words. They are a way of life. So whenever you speak them; speak them firmly, speak them proudly, speak them gratefully. I am an American. ...a tradition