might as well reserve space for the hoopla..

anyway..looking at these article..one gets the sense that a gear may have shifted somwhere in the universe...and, Hillary simply became "old" hat over night...


\\In New Hampshire, Bill Clinton Finds Less Spark - New York Times


http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c..._tracking_poll

Can you win on dull? - Roger Simon - Politico.com


in 24 we'll see....the polls have really shown a flip flop...a swing of like 12 points from Hill leading to now Obama leading by several...I am not a huge beleiver in polls....but something is clearly afoot here..if Hill does, lose by this kind of margin, shes done imho. South Carolina blacks are going to come out for Obama in my opinion...and no amount of laying on the twang, will help her....

__________________
No individual can plan his own existence in their view.

So the state planners must arrogate to themselves the right to manipulate any sector of the economic system if the good of “society” or the “general welfare” is paramount.

Ipso- if the rights of the individual get in the way, the rights of the individual must be sublimated.

The Road to Serfdom
FA Hayek (interpretation)


Mortgage Backed Security survivor

I was thinking that the Iowa results would be enough to put Obama ahead in New Hampshire on Tuesday but then after watching his poor performance in Saturday's debate I'm not so sure.

__________________
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

well I didn't watch it, I’ll take your word for it ( huck got handed his head last night on a roundtable with Chris Wallace and other candidates) but, IS it important enough and are these folks really paying attention ..Unfortunately its not the issues its the gimmicks....Obama is "hot" Hill is not...

__________________
No individual can plan his own existence in their view.

So the state planners must arrogate to themselves the right to manipulate any sector of the economic system if the good of “society” or the “general welfare” is paramount.

Ipso- if the rights of the individual get in the way, the rights of the individual must be sublimated.

The Road to Serfdom
FA Hayek (interpretation)


Mortgage Backed Security survivor

The whole thing with Obama kills me. He would make a great motivational speaker but put him in a debate on the issues and he isn't impressive at all.

__________________
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Being Impressive is very subjective.....

But I disagree with that. As the numbers of debaters has decreased, the more intimate stage has seemed to favor Obama showing that he can think on his feet and stay cool in the spotlight and the heat.

I think he would be quite powerful in a one on one debate. You've already seen flashes of that in heated exchanges with Hillary. Obama has always had pretty good responses and weathered attacks without once losing his cool.

__________________

Congratulations President-Elect Obama

Yes but he is offering sound bites while she is at least offering specific although brief explanations of specific policy.

__________________
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Sound bites are easy to digest. So far, the whole election cycle each person who has actually tried to explain themselves rather than smooth talk and sound bite has wound up getting punished for doing so. Those sticking to the sound bites and sanguine proclamations, etc, mock their explanations whilst hiding their hand and their supporters do the same in the public, in the media, online, etc. That's been such a disappointment to me. I don't have to agree with an explanation or a plan, but I do want to hear them so I can agree or disagree, or even change my mind. I saw the same thing on the GOP debate last night. Romney supposedly 'won' the debate and got traction with many people, but yet it was mostly just sound biting, avoidance, attack and parry, etc. With his chameleon act on almost all issues, agile salesman talk, and twisting of facts about his record and others' records, he seems to be selling himself to voters over those who explain themselves and have genuine records on their points.

I agree completely. I am no fan of Huckabee whatsoever but I was very pleased that he won Iowa instead of Romney. I'm hoping McCain does as well in New Hampshire.

__________________
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

I think the New Hampshire primary will be more telling for the Democrats than the Republicans. It is critical for Hillary to at least put up a good fight in NH. She was supposed to be stronger there than in Iowa. And I don't see Obama losing the next primary in SC. If she has another disappointing showing today, it is going to be a real uphill battle for her. Obama will probably have 3 primaries in his pocket and all the momentum.

For the Republicans, I think the NH primary will only further muddy the waters. If McCain wins, I don't think it means all that much for the rest of the primaries where he will be considerably weaker. I don't see Huckabee doing well there because NH voters will be less enthralled with the religious angle. And if Romney does well, he is only meeting expectations and everything is back to square one. The only person that I think really needs to do well to get back on track is Giuliani and Thompson. And I don't think Thompson will deliver. It's a horse race for Republicans, and will be for some time.

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He who learns but does not think is lost! He who thinks but does not learn is in great danger. --Confucius

Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.
--Sun Tzu

Smooth seas do not make skillful sailors.
--African proverb

The only democratic candidates speaking about detailed plans were Biden and Dodd..... they are gone now.

What Hillary's spoken about in regard to her proposed policies is just as high level as Obama and Edwards for that matter... The truth is that they all have detailed plans, but you'll only find the details in print or on the internet.

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Congratulations President-Elect Obama

A recent example was when in Saturday night's debate the other candidates just said a time when they would have troops out and she instead talked about everything that is involved, the logistics, and other factors that need to be planned in order to make it happen.

__________________
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

In other words, while the other candidates made some sort of loose commitment, she dodged divulging a specific answer by really saying "it depends".

I don't see that as a good example of specificity of policy.

__________________

Congratulations President-Elect Obama

No she laid out many of the factors involved rather than telling people what they want to here.

__________________
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Obama is not a strong debater, but that didn't stop Bush from winning two terms.

He's a strong "retail" politician, and his speeches inspire and energize people.

I think in America "Change" doesn't always mean a shift in policy; usually it means a change of who we'd like to see on our tv everyday. Obama's got the freshest face of them all.

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With Obama and McCain beginning to run away with the Independent vote in New Hampshire, I'm a little concerned about Ron Paul there. Some polls have him 3rd, others have him 4th, while a couple others show him in 5th.

Giuliani has seen his support completely dwindle.

If Paul can finish 4th with around 12-14%; he'll be able to say that he's improving, while the big stories of tomorrow will be the Obama surge, the renaissance campaign of Obama, and the faltering of Clinton/Giuliani - who had been leading in national polls up to this point.
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I'm still suprised by Mitt Romney's poll numbers. That he could break 25% in New Hampshire is surprising to me since every major paper has seen right through him.

What if both Obama and Edwards would beat Clinton in NH as well? These two are probably stronger than her in SC. Could this mean that Obama and Edwards would become the two main contestants? In such a scenario, would the Clinton people go to Obama or to Edwards?

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President Josiah Bartlet: Sweden has a 100% literacy rate. 100%! How do they do that?
Leo McGarry: Maybe they don't and they can't add.