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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
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MattLarson MattLarson is offline
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

The "Uncommitted pro-life/pro-family" slate appears to have won all 7 districts.

There doesn't appear to be any way to determine how the other candidates fared.

The Republican Party of Louisiana

Matt
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
Queshank Queshank is offline
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

Quote:
Originally Posted by MattLarson View Post
The "Uncommitted pro-life/pro-family" slate appears to have won all 7 districts.

There doesn't appear to be any way to determine how the other candidates fared.

The Republican Party of Louisiana

Matt
Well, considering the "Prolife/Profamily" slate WAS the "other candidates" I'd say they did pretty well heh heh.

Wow what happened in Louisiana is pretty interesting.

Queshank
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

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Originally Posted by Queshank View Post
Well, considering the "Prolife/Profamily" slate WAS the "other candidates" I'd say they did pretty well heh heh.

Wow what happened in Louisiana is pretty interesting.

Queshank
I can't make heads or tails of the results.
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
Alex Alex is offline
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

Nothing happened in Louisiana. They decided upon delegates. Ron Paul is not a delegate. When they hold their primary in a few weeks, Ron Paul will finish in fifth place as usual.

Wow!! lets have a f'n party!!!! Ron Paul is killin' 'em!!!
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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

The delegates are undecided unless someone gets over 50% of the vote as I understood it.
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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex View Post
Nothing happened in Louisiana. They decided upon delegates. Ron Paul is not a delegate. When they hold their primary in a few weeks, Ron Paul will finish in fifth place as usual.

Wow!! lets have a f'n party!!!! Ron Paul is killin' 'em!!!

that made me spit out my soda
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
liberty1776 liberty1776 is offline
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex View Post
Nothing happened in Louisiana. They decided upon delegates. Ron Paul is not a delegate. When they hold their primary in a few weeks, Ron Paul will finish in fifth place as usual.

Wow!! lets have a f'n party!!!! Ron Paul is killin' 'em!!!
The LA thing is kind of confusing. If more of the delegates elected are Paul supporters, then Paul has essentially won a lot of delegates. The primary ONLY matters if someone gets a majority of the votes. That seems unlikely, so the caucus, which picks delegates, is very important.

By the way, it is my understanding that ALL caucuses merely elect delegates. Therefore, the Iowa and Nevada "wins" aren't really wins in anything. What matters is the delegates elected. If a bunch of Paul supporters (or any candidate) elect other Paul (or whatever candidate) supporters, this will translate into a majority of Paul supporters (or whatever candidate) at the State convention, which means the delegates selected in the state convention will be Paul supporters. Now, in Nevada, the delegates are uncommitted. So, the results from Nevada were only the results of what ammounts to a straw poll. Maybe only 20% of the delegates were Romney supporters because many leave after the initial straw poll because they think that is what really counts. Or, maybe 90% of the delegates are Romney supporters. We don't know, and won't know until the national convention.

So, as you see, these caucuses are more important than the primary in LA.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
liberty1776 liberty1776 is offline
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

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Originally Posted by Prince of Space View Post
The delegates are undecided unless someone gets over 50% of the vote as I understood it.
According to wikipedia, you are right. "All delegates elected at the caucus are "uncommitted" and considered unallocated to any candidate."

Also, there are many provisional ballots out that may tip the scales in Paul's favor. WHo knows, it could happen.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

They are awaiting 650 provisional ballot verifications which may have quite a bit of effect on the results. This pro life / pro family / all other candidates ticket or "everyone vs Paul" BS is certainly an unwelcome and unforeseen surprise. I'm not sure how they are working that.
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
Alex Alex is offline
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

And now it is time for a dose of reality. Here are the 'delegate' totals to date:
Romney 59
Huckabee 40
McCain 36
Thompson 5
Ron Paul 4
Gulliani 1

Ron Paul has 4, that is less than Fred Thompson. The only difference is that Fred Thompson had the good sense to drop out.

PS - LA has 47 total delegates up for grabs. 21 are district delegates, 10 are 'at large delegates', 3 'state party delegates' and 13 'bonus' delegates. The entire delegation represents 0.0197 of the available delegates (A simple majority of delegate votes (1,191 out of 2,380) is required to become the party's nominee).
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
liberty1776 liberty1776 is offline
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex View Post
And now it is time for a dose of reality. Here are the 'delegate' totals to date:
Romney 59
Huckabee 40
McCain 36
Thompson 5
Ron Paul 4
Gulliani 1

Ron Paul has 4, that is less than Fred Thompson. The only difference is that Fred Thompson had the good sense to drop out.

PS - LA has 47 total delegates up for grabs. 21 are district delegates, 10 are 'at large delegates', 3 'state party delegates' and 13 'bonus' delegates. The entire delegation represents 0.0197 of the available delegates (A simple majority of delegate votes (1,191 out of 2,380) is required to become the party's nominee).
Yes, we realize this. However, don't count your chickens before you hatch. In states where the delegates are tottally uncommitted, a majority of Paulists at the State convetions means a majroity at the national convention. For states that have committed national delegates with a majority of state convention Paulist delegates, a amendment, or motion or whatever you want to call it to decommit the delegates means a lot of national delegates at the national convention.

Why did you point out that LA's delegates are a small percentage? ALL of the candidates only have a VERY small percentage of the delegates needed. Let's just assume the very best situation for Paul. That means he has 52 delegates, that's second place.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
liberty1776 liberty1776 is offline
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
They are awaiting 650 provisional ballot verifications which may have quite a bit of effect on the results. This pro life / pro family / all other candidates ticket or "everyone vs Paul" BS is certainly an unwelcome and unforeseen surprise. I'm not sure how they are working that.
Unfortunatly, nothing was really done wrong. They simply "played the game." Now, what Paul needs to do is say something like, "Hey, the only way they could beat me in LA was to pool their resources. And it was a close vote even after they did that."
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
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MattLarson MattLarson is offline
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
They are awaiting 650 provisional ballot verifications which may have quite a bit of effect on the results. This pro life / pro family / all other candidates ticket or "everyone vs Paul" BS is certainly an unwelcome and unforeseen surprise. I'm not sure how they are working that.
Well, having only 2 choices was the only way Paul was going to come in 2nd.....
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex View Post
And now it is time for a dose of reality. Here are the 'delegate' totals to date:
Romney 59
Huckabee 40
McCain 36
Thompson 5
Ron Paul 4
Gulliani 1

Ron Paul has 4, that is less than Fred Thompson. The only difference is that Fred Thompson had the good sense to drop out.

PS - LA has 47 total delegates up for grabs. 21 are district delegates, 10 are 'at large delegates', 3 'state party delegates' and 13 'bonus' delegates. The entire delegation represents 0.0197 of the available delegates (A simple majority of delegate votes (1,191 out of 2,380) is required to become the party's nominee).


How about another dose, the current RCP averages:
McCain 27.2%
Huckabee 19.0%
Romney 15.6%
Giuliani 12.2%
Thompson 8.2%
Paul 4.6%

Even after he dropped out, Thompson still has twice as much support as Paul amoung average voters. Who knows, now that Thompson is out of the race maybe he'll hit 5%.
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2008
Queshank Queshank is offline
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Re: Ron Paul poised to do well in the Louisiana Caucuses TONIGHT!

Supporters of McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson's defunct campaign banded together as the "Pro-Family/Pro-Life" slate as a reaction to early predictions about a strong Ron Paul showing. They then handed out fliers with pictures of Ronald and Nancy Reagan that read "Win one for the Gipper!".

It took all 4 of them combining their efforts to derail the momentum Ron Paul had in the early part of the day.

Fascinating.

Queshank
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