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Old 02-12-2008
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Crystal Crystal is offline
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Delegate Math

Is there any way Huckabee can get the necessary delegates to win the nomination? What would it take? The Republican candidate needs 1,191 delegates. McCain has over 700 (736?) and Huckabee has over 200 (213?) and I believe there are 1,138 delegates uncommitted (If my numbers are incorrect, PLEASE, let me know. Thanks.). If Romney drops out his delegates are released, but by only suspending his campaign he retains them. If/When those delegates are released, which candidate do you think will get them?

For the Democrats, I really think neither side will end up with the necessary delegates and it will be determined by a Brokered Convention. They are running so close and I just can't see one of them breaking far enough ahead of the other. However, it will be interesting to see how Hillary's campaign performs with little money.

Do you think candidates for both sides will be determined by Brokered Conventions? I'm beginning to think it could be a real possibility.
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Old 02-12-2008
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TheLastBoyScout TheLastBoyScout is offline
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Re: Delegate Math

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crystal View Post
Is there any way Huckabee can get the necessary delegates to win the nomination? What would it take? The Republican candidate needs 1,191 delegates. McCain has over 700 (736?) and Huckabee has over 200 (213?) and I believe there are 1,138 delegates uncommitted (If my numbers are incorrect, PLEASE, let me know. Thanks.). If Romney drops out his delegates are released, but by only suspending his campaign he retains them. If/When those delegates are released, which candidate do you think will get them?

For the Democrats, I really think neither side will end up with the necessary delegates and it will be determined by a Brokered Convention. They are running so close and I just can't see one of them breaking far enough ahead of the other. However, it will be interesting to see how Hillary's campaign performs with little money.

Do you think candidates for both sides will be determined by Brokered Conventions? I'm beginning to think it could be a real possibility.
The problem for Huckabee is that there are few winner-take-all states left. For the ones that split out delegates proportionally, even if Huckabee is a hare and McCain the tortoise, McCain is almost certain of victory in just a few weeks. Huckabee spoke of miracles... and that was very appropriate. He's not going to get all the delegates in the proportional states.

Many republicans that are bitching about McCain are enjoying Huckabee's presence as a counterbalance.

They are satisfied with the prospect of McCain as long as he's pressured to pander to the far right. Huckabee represents what they see as lacking in McCain so it's like a vicarious protest.

In the end, Huckabee's best and only prospect is for VP. And McCain will be in the catch 22 situation of either being disingenuous and submitting to the far right pressure....thereby losing his independent voters.... or staying true to his past and continuing to alienate a large part of the republican base.

The Democrats are headed to a brokered convention situation. However, everything in the Dem leadership's power will be done to get people to rally support behind whoever emerges as the true frontrunner after Texas and Ohio.
If there is not a frontrunner at that point, It's going to be ugly.
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Old 02-14-2008
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DGG DGG is offline
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Re: Delegate Math

I believe that McCain will pick up enough delegates to be able to get the nomination easily at the RNC Convention. He is that far ahead in delegates and polls for upcoming States.

Huckabee is probably not the best possible VP Candidate there is.
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