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Old 05-20-2008
Lost Soul Lost Soul is offline
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Popular vote? Hillary?

Quote:
As Time Runs Short, Clinton Claims Lead in Popular Vote
By PATRICK HEALY
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is entering the Kentucky and Oregon primaries on Tuesday with one of the most pugnacious political messages of her campaign: That she is ahead in the national popular vote when all votes are counted, including from the unsanctioned primaries in Michigan and Florida, and that party leaders who have a vote as super-delegates should reflect this level of appeal.

This argument is of a piece with Mrs. Clinton’s increasingly populist image, as a fighter on behalf of average people, but it is also a debatable claim: Most tallies of the national popular vote put Mr. Obama in the lead, especially when Michigan and Florida are not counted.

Mr. Obama has declared his own lead in the national vote and is solidly ahead in the overall delegate count, and he intends to use the results of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries to declare on Tuesday night that he has secured a majority of the pledged delegates from primaries and caucuses.

While that does not guarantee the nomination, his campaign argues that it is an important moment and crucial for superdelegates to consider as well.

Yet Mr. Obama does not plan to declare outright victory, his advisers say, because he does not want to appear to be pushing Mrs. Clinton out of the race. At this stage, his advisers say, he wants to treat her gracefully as a worthy Democratic fighter, not as a stubborn nemesis.

The arguments over the cold math of the nomination contest will play out against a backdrop of two states that are likely to show once more the divisions in the Democratic electorate that have been exposed in this two-candidate contest: Mr. Obama is expected to win the primary in Oregon, a largely white state with a fairly liberal Democratic base, while Mrs. Clinton is expected to win in Kentucky, which has a strong working-class vote.

Mrs. Clinton won a commanding victory last Tuesday in neighboring West Virginia, where racial considerations emerged as an unusually evident factor for some Democratic voters, according to exit polls. Both Clinton and Obama advisers say they are unsure if this will happen again in Kentucky, but they do not rule it out; Clinton advisers add that they believe race was a relatively small factor in the West Virginia vote.

While the Clinton campaign has aggressively pressed its popular-vote argument in Kentucky, Mrs. Clinton has also been decrying the media in Washington for all but crowning Mr. Obama as the Democratic nominee, as Tim Russert of NBC News did two weeks ago on the night of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. Clinton advisers say that pitting Mrs. Clinton and the voters, on one side, against Mr. Obama and Washington pundits will be a main theme of hers in the final primary contests.

Mrs. Clinton has sounded almost like a professor of political science on the trail, explaining how the popular vote should be calculated by her lights, as she did before an audience in Kentucky on Monday.

“I believe that with your help we will send a message to this country because right now more people have voted for me than have voted for my opponent,” she said. “More people have voted for me than for anybody ever running for president before. So we have a very close contest for votes, for delegates, and this is nowhere near over. None of us is going to have the number of delegates we’re going to need to get to the nomination, although I understand my opponent and his supporters are going to claim that.

“The fact is we have to include Michigan and Florida — we cannot claim that we have a nominee based on 48 states, particularly two states that are so important for us to win in the fall,” Mrs. Clinton said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/20/us...nt&oref=slogin


In 2000 the liberals claimed that Gore won the popular vote thus he should be President not Bush.

So libs, if it turn out that Hillary is indeed the winner of the popular vote are to going denounce Obama as the Democratic candidate winner or are you going to show your true colors and stick with Obama and not the winner of the popular vote?

If it is good for Gore why not Hillary?

Not that it matters because of this crazy super delegates process where the voters voice is not heard but should be fun watching you guys try to explain this away.
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Old 05-20-2008
The Greek's Avatar
The Greek The Greek is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lost Soul View Post
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/20/us...nt&oref=slogin


In 2000 the liberals claimed that Gore won the popular vote thus he should be President not Bush.

So libs, if it turn out that Hillary is indeed the winner of the popular vote are to going denounce Obama as the Democratic candidate winner or are you going to show your true colors and stick with Obama and not the winner of the popular vote?

If it is good for Gore why not Hillary?

Not that it matters because of this crazy super delegates process where the voters voice is not heard but should be fun watching you guys try to explain this away.
Caution! You are entering a "Total Spin Zone". The Democrats will do their political dance and Obama will be the nominee. True colors will be displayed
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Old 05-20-2008
TSGracchus TSGracchus is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

You're ignoring an important factor in this whole business, Lost Soul: Hillary is wrong. She does NOT have a clear popular vote lead. The only way she can claim that is by including a state where Obama wasn't even on the ballot, and another where, following the DNC rules, he didn't campaign.

The whole situation is a mess, and there isn't a clear front-runner in popular vote, but Obama comes closer to being one than she does.
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Old 05-20-2008
Lost Soul Lost Soul is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
You're ignoring an important factor in this whole business, Lost Soul: Hillary is wrong. She does NOT have a clear popular vote lead. The only way she can claim that is by including a state where Obama wasn't even on the ballot, and another where, following the DNC rules, he didn't campaign.

The whole situation is a mess, and there isn't a clear front-runner in popular vote, but Obama comes closer to being one than she does.
Hey its her claim not mine!

But if they do include Fl and Mich, which the DNC is discussing as we speak, will those votes be more than enough to clearly put Hillary in front with the popular vote?

If so, after 2000 how can you libs deny her the winner if you claimed Gore won solely by taking the popular vote?
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Old 05-20-2008
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AjaxPress AjaxPress is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

The Republican party has been campaigning harder for Hillary Clinton than any liberal or Democrat I know. Why is that?
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2008
TSGracchus TSGracchus is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

The DNC can decide whether to seat the delegates elected in Florida and Michigan, but that has nothing to do with popular vote totals. The problems with how to count those totals so as to get a realistic picture of who won the popular vote in the primaries remains, regardless of what happens with those delegates.

Also, you have to remember that a lot of states use the caucus system rather than primaries. How do you measure the popular vote in those states when there is no election to measure it by? And finally, what about Republican crossover voters who have no intention of voting in the general election for the person they voted for in the primary? Should their votes count for purposes of determining who has the most popular support? Arguably, no, but then how do you distinguish them from Republicans who are genuinely so dissatisfied with McCain and/or Bush and/or the GOP in general that they've truly crossed over and not just voted as a ploy?

Given all this, the only tool we have to tell which candidate would receive more popular votes is by polling, which puts Obama clearly in the lead. But I'd be the first to say that isn't entirely adequate. What would be needed is a uniform primary system that can show popular support without fudge factors. Since there is no such thing, we can't really tell.

But all of the indications we DO have suggest that Obama, not Clinton, is in the lead on this.
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Old 05-20-2008
Alex Alex is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AjaxPress View Post
The Republican party has been campaigning harder for Hillary Clinton than any liberal or Democrat I know. Why is that?
dah!! the longer these two nincompoops fight each other, the easier it will be to beat them in November. Hillary will fight until the convention, you can take that to the bank. I say to Hillary - You go girl!!!!
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Old 05-20-2008
Traveler Traveler is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TSGracchus View Post
You're ignoring an important factor in this whole business, Lost Soul: Hillary is wrong. She does NOT have a clear popular vote lead. The only way she can claim that is by including a state where Obama wasn't even on the ballot, and another where, following the DNC rules, he didn't campaign.

The whole situation is a mess, and there isn't a clear front-runner in popular vote, but Obama comes closer to being one than she does.
So...either the party is gonna be hypocritical for not backing the popular vote winner...or err they're gonn be hypocritical by not counting the votes of the state they vowed to count all the non military votes of in 2000?

So which standard of hypocrasy do you wish to take?
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Old 05-20-2008
noahath noahath is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lost Soul View Post
Not that it matters because of this crazy super delegates process where the voters voice is not heard but should be fun watching you guys try to explain this away.
You and your hatred of "liberals"..... anyway, to the point at hand: it's an easy one to explain. In 2000, the argument against Bush's "election" wasn't to do with Gore winning the popular vote, but that Bush was essentially appointed President by virtue of the Supreme Court stopping the recount (which incidentally had Gore in front). Gore wasn't the first candidate to win the popular vote but lose the election, which is more an indictment on the electoral college than anything else.
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Old 05-20-2008
TSGracchus TSGracchus is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Traveler View Post
So...either the party is gonna be hypocritical for not backing the popular vote winner...or err they're gonn be hypocritical by not counting the votes of the state they vowed to count all the non military votes of in 2000?
Or, neither of the above and somebody didn't read my more detailed examination of the whole business.
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Old 05-20-2008
Alex Alex is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

Quote:
Originally Posted by noahath View Post
.....Bush was essentially appointed President by virtue of the Supreme Court stopping the recount (which incidentally had Gore in front). .....
Wow!! You'd better notify the NY Times!!
Quote:
Contrary to what many partisans of former Vice President Al Gore have charged, the United States Supreme Court did not award an election to Mr. Bush that otherwise would have been won by Mr. Gore. A close examination of the ballots found that Mr. Bush would have retained a slender margin over Mr. Gore if the Florida court's order to recount more than 43,000 ballots had not been reversed by the United States Supreme Court.
Study of Disputed Florida Ballots Finds Justices Did Not Cast the Deciding Vote

and while you are informing the NYTImes of their error - you might want to let these folks know too:
* Associated Press
* The New York Times
* The Wall Street Journal
* CNN
* St. Petersburg Times
* The Palm Beach Post
* The Washington Post
* Tribune Company
o Los Angeles Times
o Chicago Tribune
o Orlando Sentinel
o The Baltimore Sun
and the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago who conducted an exhaustive study on the subject.

Thanks for this "groundbreaking" information....
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Old 05-20-2008
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Si modo Si modo is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

Quote:
Originally Posted by noahath View Post
You and your hatred of "liberals"..... anyway, to the point at hand: it's an easy one to explain. In 2000, the argument against Bush's "election" wasn't to do with Gore winning the popular vote, but that Bush was essentially appointed President by virtue of the Supreme Court stopping the recount (which incidentally had Gore in front). Gore wasn't the first candidate to win the popular vote but lose the election, which is more an indictment on the electoral college than anything else.
That's not what happened (eight years ago). Gore lost.

[edit] Alex posted the information for you.

Also, where is it that LS said anything about hate? It looks like you read a bit more into that post than there actually was. [/edit]
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Old 05-20-2008
Lost Soul Lost Soul is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

Quote:
Originally Posted by noahath View Post
You and your hatred of "liberals"..... anyway, to the point at hand: it's an easy one to explain. In 2000, the argument against Bush's "election" wasn't to do with Gore winning the popular vote, but that Bush was essentially appointed President by virtue of the Supreme Court stopping the recount (which incidentally had Gore in front). Gore wasn't the first candidate to win the popular vote but lose the election, which is more an indictment on the electoral college than anything else.


Quote:
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A comprehensive study of the 2000 presidential election in Florida suggests that if the U.S. Supreme Court had allowed a statewide vote recount to proceed, Republican candidate George W. Bush would still have been elected president.
Quote:
More than three months after Democrat Al Gore conceded the hotly contested 2000 election, an independent hand recount of Florida's ballots released today says he would have lost anyway, even if officials would have allowed the hand count he requested.
Quote:
Miami Herald:

The Herald's examination of votes cast in all 67 Florida counties projects Gore falling further behind if the recount Democrats advocated had continued.
Republican George W. Bush's victory in Florida, which gave him the White House, almost certainly would have endured even if a recount stopped by the U.S. Supreme Court had been allowed to go forward.
In fact, a comprehensive review of 64,248 ballots in all 67 Florida counties by The Herald and its parent company, Knight Ridder, in partnership with USA Today, found that Bush's slender margin of 537 votes would have tripled to 1,665 votes under the generous counting standards advocated by Democrat Al Gore.
The newspapers' ballot review was conducted by the public accounting firm BDO Seidman, LLP. It was designed to answer a question asked by many Americans and certain to be examined by historians:
What would have happened if the U.S. Supreme Court had not halted the sweeping r! ecount of undervotes - ballots without presidential votes detected by counting machines - ordered by the Florida Supreme Court on Dec. 8, a month after the November election?
The answer: under almost all scenarios, Bush still would have won.
Quote:
Palm Beach Post:

The Palm Beach Post put it more dramatically:
Palm Beach Post: Al Gore was doomed.

He couldn't have caught George W. Bush even if his two best chances for an official recount had played out.
Similar Conclusions, Uncertain Results

An earlier study by a different media consortium reached similar conclusions. That study was conducted by a group that included the Miami Herald, USA Today and Knight Ridder newspapers. As USA Today said of the findings on May 11, 2001:
USA Today: George W. Bush would have won a hand recount of all disputed ballots in Florida's presidential election if the most widely accepted standard for judging votes had been applied.
All liberal sources
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Old 05-20-2008
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goober goober is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

The conclusion of the exhaustive study was that Gore would only win in Florida, if all the votes were counted.
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Old 05-20-2008
Alex Alex is offline
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Re: Popular vote? Hillary?

Quote:
Originally Posted by goober View Post
The conclusion of the exhaustive study was that Gore would only win in Florida, if all the votes were counted.
you should really grow up....Your man lost, get over it.
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I think at this point there needs to be a focus on an immediate increase in spending and I think this is a time when deficit fear has to take a second seat . . . I believe later on there should be tax increases. Speaking personally, I think there are a lot of very rich people out there whom we can tax at a point down the road and recover some of the money."
-- Barney Frank, October 20, 2008
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