I think Charlie Black is absolutely right. He didn't actually say that McCain would be better at national security matters than his opponent, he merely stated that an attack would serve as an advantage to McCain's campaign. There is, I think without question, a perception that Republicans are considerably better at national security issues than Democrats. Whether the statement is true or not is actually irrelevant regarding elections. If people think a statement is true, then they'll vote a certain way under the assumption that it actually is true.

However, if there actually was a terrorist attack, I wonder if people would continue to perceive that the GOP is better at protecting the American people? We haven't been attacked for ~7 years, but an attack before the election could actually work to the advantage of either party, depending on how it is handled.

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"The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised.”
- George Will

I think in that case it changes from "who can protect us better" and "who will exact a harsher revenge."

Once again the GOP takes that one.

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"Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God."
Matthew 5:9

Those are not necessarily mutually exclusive concepts. The prospect of an American counter-attack surely acts as a deterrent, to some extent, in the thought process of terrorists. Note that prior to the 9/11 attacks there was some dissension in the al Qaeda hierarchy over the wisdom of carrying out the attacks for fear of the American response. There were also those that viewed the U.S. as a "paper tiger" based on its timid responses to past attacks. That calculus may well have changed post-9/11 as a result of "revenge" carried out against al Qaeda and its enablers, thus providing protection to the United States from future attacks.

Of course, you give the GOP too much credit. The sentiment in terms of what the American response to 9/11 should be was nearly unanimous across the political spectrum. It just so happened that a Republican was President at the time and, therefore, served as Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces carrying out the response.

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