I don't know much about Jeb Bush, but I hear he's more competent than Bush 43. Even if he were a great leader (I have no idea what he's for) he would never ever get elected. Maybe if he was 20 years younger, but by the time anyone could even think about electing another Bush it will be atleast 20 years.

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"Hard work without talent is a shame, but talent without hard work is a tragedy." -fortune cookie

You have hit the spirit of this thread right upon its head.

Well done!

If Jeb wasn't named "Bush", he'd be the nominee, right now. Alas...

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"Compassionate Conservatism"?!?! That is a stupid phrase. Conservatism is inherently compassionate. It is liberalism that is cruel for the sake of maintaining a constituency.

I like 2008 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

Here is my prediction:

Obama: 311
McCain 227

Obama takes Kerry states + IA, CO, NM, NV, VA, OH

I say VA is won by less than 50,000 votes and a similar margin in NV. Obama's ground game is invisible in the polls and will account for 2-3% more in those states.

What's stupid about having a winning family put up a candidate that Florida loved?

Jeb is a very well-liked guy and could probably do quite well.

Possible, but I don't think it's likely.

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"Hard work without talent is a shame, but talent without hard work is a tragedy." -fortune cookie

If you take the Virginia averages and some internal polls that are being taken in that state, Obama is ahead by like 1 or 2 points. But then McCain is now kind of leaning in Colorado.

I had Obama at 273/McCain 265 assuming everything stays the same as 2004 except for Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico favoring Obama.

But if Colorado and let's say New Mexico slip to McCain, but Virginia and Iowa shift Obama, then you've got Obama at 272/266 over McCain.

The McCain peak appears to have happened through the weekend, even showing him tied in Minnesota and just 5 points back in NY. But today a new poll came out in NY, and Obama was up by 13%. The average in Minnesota still shows Obama up by 2 or 3.

This is so freakishly close right now, we could see another really late night, especially if everything boils down to like New Mexico or something.

But it seems like we have to wait a few more days to see what McCain's peak really is and how he comes down to earth exactly. A really interesting settling is occuring in Virginia, where white men favored McCain by a pretty good margin in the last couple weeks, and it now has shifted back to normal.

So for now

Obama 272
McCain 266

Obama 48% (all the polls of likely voters discount the spike in the youth vote; they're going to be Obama's "evangelicals")
McCain 47%
Barr 2%
Nader 2%

I think the Palin hoopla blows over, she's been over exposed, and her celebrity will fade fast, and she will begin to look like exactly what she is, a relatively inexperienced politician, who will never live up to the hype, although I think she will be a force in the GOP in years to come. The electoral landscape this year is so tilted to the left that it should carry Obama to the White House, the financial situation favors the Dems, and it's not going away soon.
I think Obama gets close to 300 EV, and the election will be called fairly early in the evening.

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“ The subjects of every state ought to contribute towards the support of the government, as nearly as possible, in proportion to their respective abilities; that is, in proportion to the revenue which they respectively enjoy under the protection of the state.”

Adam Smith , The Wealth of Nations 1776

"We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics"
FDR's second Inaugural Address

In all the polls coming out today and then tomorrow, we've begun to see McCain's bounce recede. The most surprising thing to notice are recent North Carolina polls, which practically show a dead heat, but I'm not ready to consider that a battleground state yet. But Virginia certainly is. In two of the last three polls, Obama is ahead by 2 and 4 points respectively. Why? White men of all people. Obama is making gains in northern Virginia. But it's fascinating to see that white folks there have shifted and are gelling around Obama.

Colorado is as close as ever; Obama is holding onto New Hampshire; and the biggest surprise today is that Florida is tied, but the average for the month still has McCain ahead by a good 4-5 points; Ohio sees Obama ahead by 2 points today, but the average for the month still shows McCain ahead by a sliver.

5 out of 7 national polls that came out today show Obama ahead by an average of 2 points, while one poll showed the candidates tied, and one poll that showed McCain ahead by 1 point.

Things are coming back down to earth, but state by state, if everything remains the same as 2004, but Obama picks up Iowa, New Mexico, and let's say Virginia, while keeping Colorado in the red than the election as of today would look like;

Obama 277
McCain 261

On election night, Obama is looking for Iowa 7, Colorado 9, New Mexico 5, and Virginia 13. He needs any combination of 18 electoral votes to reach 270 since the electoral map everywhere else is the same as 2004.

The earliest indicator for who wins on election night will be Virginia. If Obama squeaks out an early win there, it would signal that he's just about closed the deal, since he's way out in front in Iowa. But if McCain squeaks out an early win in Virginia, and let's say flips New Hampshire to his column, than Obama's back would be up against the wall and Colorado and New Mexico would be his last bastions of hope.

This is really fucking exciting.

I believe the only thing Obama needs to do is win Colorado. McCain can't and won't win Pennsylvannia, New Jersey, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, or New hampshire as long as Obama doesn't do anything really bad. Obama can't win Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, or Indiana. New Mexico will probably go to Obama. Nevada is leaning slightly McCain. Colorado is up for grabs. Virginia is leaning slightly McCain. Ohio is anyone's game. This means if McCain loses anyone of these states I believe will be the deciding factor means he will lose the election.

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"Hard work without talent is a shame, but talent without hard work is a tragedy." -fortune cookie

It seems some people are hoping for chaos...or maybe they're just kicking around ideas to show just how fucking cool and superior our system is. Probably both.

Article: 269 tie: An electoral college 'doomsday'?

This would entail an electoral map that resembles the following:



As you can see, it's pretty darned unlikely. Still interesting to consider...in the scenario outline above, the two "experienced" candidates get sent packing, and you end up with a mixed administration. Of course, Palin would probably just stay in Alaska and Obama would either rent the Pope Mobile or stay in Dick Cheney's "undisclosed location".

Could get even more interesting...

Cool. . Interesting article. Read the whole thing.

Now, all we need is some of these eggheads to run the prediction of the 38-12 victory I envision so they can look as smart as me on The Day After.

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"Compassionate Conservatism"?!?! That is a stupid phrase. Conservatism is inherently compassionate. It is liberalism that is cruel for the sake of maintaining a constituency.

tie = win for Obama.

But also for Palin, according to the scenario above.

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"Compassionate Conservatism"?!?! That is a stupid phrase. Conservatism is inherently compassionate. It is liberalism that is cruel for the sake of maintaining a constituency.

Don't be so sure on that. Obama seriously underperfermored in the primaries in that state. By something like 5%, if he follows that in the General, Pen & NH will go McCain. Of course if you go by Obama's under/overperformance in the Primaries, McCain is likely to loose Virginia and NC (which are showing dead heat/+2-+6 for McCain respectively, and Obama Overperformed in the primaries by about 10% in those two states). Statistically there is nothing significant about Obama's performance in the primaries in Co and NM, so if these numbers do bear out, Obama is still likely to win just barely. Course it does all come down to Co in such a scenario. Would be interesting though to see Pen/Va/NC flip though.

McCain over Obama by a tight margin, rioting to follow, film at 11.

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I needs government help to live.
I must be a liberal.

Nah, no rioting. The rioting types only get riled up about important stuff like "innocent motorists" getting beat down by the police. OJ. Denver Nuggets. Shit like that.

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"Compassionate Conservatism"?!?! That is a stupid phrase. Conservatism is inherently compassionate. It is liberalism that is cruel for the sake of maintaining a constituency.